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Everything posted by CreweCold

  1. @feb1991blizzard seems it wasn't just me seeing the warming potential in the charts...
  2. Well I don't really see a way of avoiding flooding at some point given the general set up. If we're going to go zonal, I'd rather we went zonal with a wintry end product!
  3. I just have a feeling that if we get an early connect, we won't get out of it this year. We'll be staring down the barrel of months of zonal- pretty much as the seasonals predict. Our best bet is a 2009 type situation. I like your assessment of a 'pseudo zonal' November- pretty much what happened that year.
  4. The longer we can hold off downwelling of the upper zonal flow, the better- especially given the Pacific set up. As the last few years have shown, once coupling happens to a strong strat flow, the writing is on the wall. A HP anchored in the NE Pacific is a death knell when this is the case. Very very hard to wriggle out of as cold air repeatedly flows down through Canada and the States and thus invigorating the jet.
  5. We're going to need a warming concentrated over Canada this year- preferably early doors (November). This because the natural response to the warm NE Pacific will be a HP in that area and low heights around the Canadian/Greenland sector.
  6. Day 10 ECM looks good WRT an early strat warming pattern to me- shame it's day 10 @feb1991blizzard
  7. Yes. What was most notable about today was the lack of diurnally driven convection- a sure sign that we are approaching the time of year where the sun is too weak to make much of a difference to temperatures if we were to get stuck under an inversion. We're at the point where the sun has the same potency as it would at the back end of February.
  8. IF (and it's a big if) we can get the tropospheric pattern to play ball over the next 5-6 weeks then it is possible we see an early season warming of the stratosphere. This would require models like the GLOSEA etc to have missed the possibility and so you have to say the chances look slim. However, it remains a possibility.
  9. If it's a wet winter, there will be problems across parts of N England, Wales and the Midlands. 175% summer rainfall plus a deluge over the last few weeks...
  10. People keep harping on about last year but it really was just a freak. The seasonal modelling did an exceptional job of picking up the SSW that occurred late Dec/early Jan but where they failed was modelling the downwelling into the trop. They're not even picking up on a SSW to even confuse things this year. It's a straight forward zonal flow!
  11. Ask the Metoffice chief forecaster if he thinks their model is 'cannon fodder'.
  12. Well nothing I've posted here (with the reasoning I have) is any different to someone coming and proclaiming a cold winter based on things like solar influences and Arctic sea ice. It's easy to sit on the fence, a lot harder to make a probabilistic call! Obviously its early days but that doesn't preclude making a judgement call on balance.
  13. I can confidently (up to a certain %age level), rule out as I see fit...at this present time. As far as I was aware, everyone is free to air their views on here. Weather is dynamic however so it may be that in 6 weeks there is a development which throws what is seen now off track. Has it happened before? Yes. On balance do I think it's likely this time around? No. Am I 100% certain? Of course not. However I personally am happy to call at a 70-80% confidence mark. If I'm wrong then so be it! I'd be one happy fella if I am ultimately proved wrong!
  14. Oh absolutely, but right now the modelling isn't picking up on anything to disrupt the zonal flow.
  15. You have forecasts on this site derived from longer term models- Ian Simpson uses them in his written longer range forecasts I believe. We're not just looking at one long range model here over the course of one run, the EC, GLOSEA and CFS are all showing the exact same output. Cross model agreement 2-4 months out. Has to make us more confident of this happening doesn't it? Especially so if talking probabilities (which I was).
  16. I was hesitant to mention SSW as an early season warming could be enough to disrupt the strat. To have a cold strat connected to the trop as early as November (with no disruption) is not good news however...
  17. I'm struggling to even see that at present, if I'm being truthfully honest. ENSO neutral will do us no favours either.
  18. Because this year, there looks to be a quick coupling of the strat and trop- grim unless we see a SSW. Unfortunately, these models are obviously not seeing any stratospheric disturbances to break the zonal regime. It also makes sense when you realise the wQBO will be being flushed down through the bottom layers of the stratosphere throughout winter. The last 2 GLOSEA updates have been pretty identical in their placements of the major pressure deviations so I do think we should prepare for a mild winter. As things stand, the model offers minimal prospect of even topplers.
  19. Great post @Steve Murr Hard to disagree with any of it. I feel an early warming ala 2009 will be key.
  20. It is a major concern. Last year they were painting a -NAO picture as a response to the big SSW we saw in late Dec/early Jan. They got the resultant trop response wrong but rightly saw the SSW. This year we have no SSW being picked up on and to me it looks like they are fairly unanimous on a simple winter +NAO. These models have high skill at being able to forecast scenarios like this which are close to climatological mean. It's scenarios which go against the climatological mean I.e blocking patterns, where these models struggle- as was seen last year.
  21. Aye, grim I fear we'll be seeing more of that this year unfortunately.
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