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Everything posted by CreweCold

  1. Also, I think almost anywhere has the chance of seeing a bit of elevated lightning later on tonight.
  2. Feels a lot more humid though. Went out a bit ago and was dripping with sweat. It's going to be a muggy night, even if temperatures aren't that high.
  3. MetOffice now going for thunderstorms breaking out tonight in their updated text forecast Tonight: A warm night in prospect for most areas, especially southern UK. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over parts of England and Wales overnight and perhaps spreading into southern Scotland.
  4. GFS is showing fairly widespread thunderstorm potential starting later tomorrow for parts of Wales, the Midlands and N England.
  5. Some of the models are showing exceptionally high rainfall totals for Wednesday
  6. ECM must be showing it too as the BBC automated is going for thunderstorms here Sunday night
  7. In an ideal world... Looks like somewhere will get a light show.
  8. GFS explodes thunderstorms across the Midlands /N England/E Wales Sunday night
  9. Thanks @SqueakheartLW I'm of the opinion that some part of Europe will see a severe cold spell this winter- significantly below the average. I'm also plumping for a severe spell in the UK too. A very mild winter, for me, is a long odds punt.
  10. Not sure what the issue is mate...just pointing out what the modelling shows at present. Highly caveated at that range as ever. Aren't you the fella that despises storms?
  11. A potentially convective and humid period looking possible into next week. S areas look at risk from thunderstorm activity initially before the risk pushes further N. Models starting to hint at some good lightning potential.
  12. Surface winds are ENEly, I think that's the reason.
  13. Trouble is, there's a flow off the N Sea which keeps temperatures suppressed for many ahead of the advancing low and associated thunderstorms from the S.
  14. Looks like we'll start to see a storm risk day 7 onwards- there on GEM also. Does look like the heat will start to turn more humid after the weekend.
  15. There is a definite shift in the ensemble mean around day 5. Doesn't mean it's correct though. I find the GEFS really quite useless.
  16. GEM keeps the real heat (30s+) SE of about Birmingham. Looking like a SE focussed event and for that I'm thankful.
  17. Well if the GFS is correct, the ECM will latch onto it later. I'm not making any calls either way as both scenarios are plausible. Though I suspect the ECM will most likely follow the UKMO.
  18. Oh I get that, I like interesting weather too...I just can't see the appeal in sweltering sleepless nights and horrible stuffy days you have to work in. The ECM looks fine for the majority of England to my eyes (E and NE coasts might be a tad chilly). Given the alternative, I.e relentless rain, I don't think the outlook can be sniffed at.
  19. I don't understand why temperatures need to be blast furnace level for people to feel satisfied. Mid 20s and settled is perfectly acceptable and useable.
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