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Everything posted by CreweCold

  1. I stayed up to view the 0z GFS...wish I hadn't... and the GEFS are a step back too. Hello Iberian HP I also noticed the strat warming is being moderated as it comes closer, with the proper warming stuck out at 300 hrs +
  2. Probably due to them showing a west based -NAO I'd have thought.
  3. I don't know, haven't seen it if there has been another run since the +NAO horror show I last saw. Maybe someone could post it?
  4. If I remember rightly, that is simply not true. At least not all of them in complete harmony. This year we have almost all the major seasonals in complete and unanimous agreement for a mean +NAO. We can only go on the forecasting tools available to us, and right now they forecast a mean +NAO for winter 2019/20. Of course they could be wrong, but in my opinion they won't be far off the mark when all said and done.
  5. It takes less model skill to forecast zonal (close to the climatological mean) than it does to forecast trop effects of a SSW and/or meridional hemispheric set up.
  6. Yes but it has been well signposted by the seasonals in fairness.
  7. I don't really see a 2009/2010 at all. It's just wishful thinking to assume otherwise IMO.
  8. Absolutely vile day. Overcast and a strong wind howling, the type that cuts right through you. Grim.
  9. Absolutely vile outside. The wind is howling, and it's the type of wind that cuts right through you.
  10. Looks like 88/89 to me. Suggests maybe some record breaking winter warmth.
  11. I never thought I'd say this after summer 2018 when everything was tinder box dry but.. I'm well and truly sick of the rain now. Everything is sopping wet.
  12. I'm looking at the output tonight and thinking two things- how interesting things look hemispherically but also wondering how much more rain we are going to see fall. The ground is thoroughly sodden, everything is so damp. It's been going on here since May/June.
  13. P.S the warming is still there on the GFS but it is depicting a weakish displacement attempt which has the effect of shunting the SPV more towards the Pacific side.
  14. Day 10 now takes us towards the date where more widespread low level snow is possible so we need to pray things fall into place for us. That ECM relies on a LOT of things going in our favour to arrive at that day 10 chart.
  15. This is the issue we're facing. The Pacific side HP is encouraging LP over the Canadian/Greenland sector. Cold air sweeping down through Canada and the States as a repeating synoptic. We could do with a warming centred over the area the 'L' i've annotated on the diagram below
  16. It's not just those things. History has shown us that Canada and the States can go very mild whilst we freeze. IMO it's the Pacific pattern not conducive to UK cold.
  17. Same as we've seen past few years...cold spilling down through Canada, a zone of WAA close to the UK and then another cold pool towards Siberia.
  18. Quite a sobering read from Tamara which happens to back up my own thoughts about December becoming increasingly mild. Cast your minds back to how smashed the TPV was in December 2010 and how quickly organised it became by January. That should be a lesson to anyone on how troposheric vortex strength now means diddly squat to the strength of it a month down the line.
  19. Looking a bit toasty up top by the end of this GFS run...
  20. As strong a signal for a Siberian HP you'll see at day 16 on a pressure mean chart At that range it means very little, but interesting nevertheless.
  21. As I understand it, by the letter of Premier League law, if a yellow card tackle causes significant injury to a player then it is a red as it is automatically deemed 'dangerous play' or endangering an opponent. What was Son doing lunging in from behind anyway? It was his tackle that caused Gomes to lose his footing and get clobbered by Aurier. I've seen a still where Aurier has planted his foot on Gomes's weight bearing foot which ultimately meant his ankle snapped due to momentum. Son's challenge was bad...going in for a ball he was never going to get from behind, studs showing and in on Gomes's weight bearing leg. No way the card gets rescinded IMO
  22. Well let's hope that the Scandi heights can hold longer term because I cannot see how we can maintain any sort of Greenland/Iceland +ve height anomaly going forward. IF (and it's a big if) we see the N arm of the jet start to tighten up, we will likely see heights to our E pushed further S and we'll be in big trouble as far as December is concerned. I would imagine the resultant pattern would be reminiscent of the GLOSEA output. We need some wave 2 action to impact on the PV going forward- IF we don't get it, we'll be looking beyond Christmas for winter IMO.
  23. Not sure what the debate is here. As I read it, there was high confidence that it would come out in the warmest of their categories. That's where their chips were. As it stands, it looks like they may have backed the wrong horse and autumn will come out close to average temperature wise.
  24. Whilst the N Pacific pattern stays the same and you've got cold pouring into Canada and the USA like that, you'll see heights lower over Greenland and the jet ramp up. It has been the same for the past few years.
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