CreweCold

Yes at the very least! That's what I'm looking towards, HP towards that way. It's the key for me as we enter November.

10cm Jan 2013 and Feb 2007 believe it or not! Never seen anything more than about 4 inches here.

The issue is that year on year some people don't learn. Cast your mind back to November 2016- everyone was getting giddy about a 'disorganised vortex' and blocking- even the Metoffice were going all in on a cold December. The issue was, like now, there were an abundance of factors which suggested mild- not least the fact the zonal winds in the strat had reached heady figures. The only thing that kept the trop PV in a ragged state through November that year was the strat-trop disconnect. Towards the middle of that month, the modelled Greenland high pressure failed to assert and was toppled...from that point I knew it was game over- and it was. The strat and trop coupled. All the abuse I received that year when I was warning people not to get excited...Believe me it would be so much easier to sit here telling everyone how cold it is going to get and how many snow events we are going to be seeing, lapping up the 'likes'...but I'm a realist I'm afraid. It would be ludicrous to suggest winter is over in October...my post was merely suggesting we need to keep a blocked pattern going as long as possible in the locations that count (which won't necessarily benefit the UK in terms of cold right at this moment). I feel a key requisite this year will be a Canadian warming early December.

Indeed, but I've not seen any such posts?

Well we're seeing two opposing scenarios pan out into FI this afternoon- GFS wants to restrengthen the vortex day 10+ with the AO going positive Whereas I think the ECM will maintain the -AO/disorganised vortex for longer, judging by the day 9 chart Going forward, I don't particularly want to see the vortex get its act together ala GFS 12z FI as we're going to be heavily reliant on the trop to bail us out this winter. With a descending +QBO we don't want to be seeing a trop-strat connect. If/when that happens (without modification to the strat profile) it's game over IMO as SSW events in +QBO and low solar years are as rare as hen's teeth! The next 4-5 weeks will tell us a LOT about how this winter is likely to unfold. I think me and @feb1991blizzard share similar views.

If only it was December!

Probably the wrong thread for it, but essentially you want to see long wave blocking in certain locales of the NH which will help drive 'waves' into the stratosphere which will in turn slow down the mean westerly flow in the strat and promote warming. There's a lot more to it but I suggest checking out the SSW thread where Chiono gives a very good low down of all things strat. Early winter warmings or 'Canadian Warmings' are a good thing to have occur as, in theory, it helps keep the N Atlantic (Canada and Greenland) sector free of a deep, entrenched polar vortex.

Ideally we want to trigger an early warming (CW)...it would help us out going forward.

2-2 away at Chelsea is not a bad result in isolation...but that feels like a loss and a point does nothing for us. What the game showed, again, is that we actually have a decent attack when we play some actual football. There is a decent team in there somewhere. Also, what the hell was that Chelsea guy playing at?

As good as that chart looks, there won't be snow down the E coast at this point because N Sea SSTs are just too warm. So with uppers of -6 you have no chance.

They seem to be going with a battleground scenario ...which at this point seems as reasonable enough to me as anything else.

Yes that one! Shudder! I knew it was all over as soon as that Greenland HP failed to manifest in latter November- a tell tale sign the trop pattern was about to be overrun.

Looking at the forecast zonal winds plot above, my main concern is that going forward as soon as the general trop pattern de-amplifies sufficiently, we'll end up as we were a couple of years back. We ended up (after a promising start) with a displaced Scandi high which became an annoying Sceuro feature, with heights not able to lower to our S and SE.