CreweCold

RE the above post, yes that was my thinking. However look at that +PDO. It will presumably have the effect of HP developing there and sending cold down through Canada and across the States. All this will do is fire up the jet and promote HP downstream across Europe...which is exactly what the EC seasonal and GLOSEA are showing. We really need that PDO to flip before we can get a good run of winters going IMO.

Correct. Which is why I assume their model and the EC seasonal are not seeing a SSW this year. They spotted last year's but got the effects of it wrong in terms of modelling. Without a SSW you're pretty much reliant on an amplified trop pattern- which the EC and GLOSEA are not seeing.

Just for balance- none of the models spotted the persistent and at times hefty -AO and -NAO patterns this summer just gone. It could be that neither model are spotting the chance of any SSW..unlike last year when they did but misread the consequences of it.

Awful output from both the GLOSEA and EC seasonal. One shred of comfort (if you could call it that) is that the EC has the HP anomaly focused more towards the SW rather than the S or SE.

I've mentioned before about the Azores HP having seemingly shifted N in mean position. It's also riding N&E with more ease.

Put it this way, I didn't expect GLOSEA to look as horrific as it does today. It's a top 3 warmest winters ever kinda run. Daffs would be out early Jan.

In short, experience. @feb1991blizzard will vouch that once any NWP modelling latches on to a straight forward zonal modelling, you rarely see it back away. The thought is it's because it's our default standard and easier for the model to 'map' Whereas anything outside of statistical norm is more difficult...which is why blocked scenarios tend to come off less.

Interestingly the GLOSEA actually eased off the big +PDO signature as it progressed through the time stamps. To no avail though obviously. It does show the Atlantic cold pool though which has thought to have been a bane over the course of recent mild winters. Disappointing not to see it show the tripole emerging once again.

Well you can't really compare as one is a seasonal model and the other is not...though they are both ensemble based.

The EC monthly only goes to day 46 I believe so I presume you mean the EC seasonal. Out of the two of them I'd plump for the GLOSEA all day every day.

I'll be happy with just one cold and snowy spell this winter TBH. Preferably in Dec or Jan.

In all seriousness feb, I do rate the GLOSEA, even if it has been a bit hit and miss. Remember, what we see is a super ensemble mean (I think). Must be a strong signal. Saying this, I said a few weeks back that seasonal models could be less useful than usual these days given we're in pretty much unchartered territory RE solar activity and state of Arctic ice.

The issue is that when seasonal models latch on to a blocked outlook, there's about a 40% chance of it coming off (seemingly). When it shows a situation like the GLOSEA does, 90% of the time it comes off.

It's a shocking outlook for the winter ahead from that model. At face value youd have to surmise it's advocating one of the mildest winters on record. Not sure how much it can feasibly climb down from there, it would have to be some volte face!

Let's hope so. It's probably the worst outlook I've ever seen it churn out in all honesty. Big HP anomaly anchored across Central Europe and low height anomaly locked in to our N.