CreweCold

Yes, there is a -NAO pattern that is trying to fight the increasing power of the trop/strat vortices...which I believe is the low solar pattern that has manifested in earnest since May. Unfortunately, the Pacific pattern just isn't playing ball at the moment. Next winter we ideally want to see the N Pacific cooler and a pronounced ENSO signature, though not a 'strong' one.

Grim- no other word for it

I'd say a fairly decent chance of verifying seeing as the set up looks pretty identical to the longer range anomaly maps. This winter is going to be one long hard slog I think.

Yes a brilliant winter that featured longevity and snowfalls scattered throughout. That -15c night in early January will stick in my memory forever, the steam rising from street drains. The nostalgia is strong with this one.

Significant cold spells are relatively easy to forecast in advance...think 2010, Jan 2013, March 2013, end of Feb 2018. I can hardly recall any significant cold spell in recent times that have come out of thin air at a very short lead time. With this in mind, I don't see anything within the next 4 weeks at least that could be classed as significant in terms of cold. The thing is, the odds are doubly stacked against us because even if we were looking at a protracted cold spell, it could all go wrong (think last winter). Amateurs and professionals alike were convinced we'd see some bitter cold. I'll just add that what I'm saying doesn't preclude cold 'snaps' with a short window for snowfall, but anything more than that this side of new year, forget it.

Is anyone genuinely surprised by the deterioration in the modelling? As I've repeatedly said, there just isn't enough forcing for a cold spell to occur. It's a sobering prospect but it is what it is.

Not too sure we'd want to see -20 uppers barrelling into the N Atlantic- could cause some nasty little zipper lows to develop at the base of the main troughing

GFS does eventually pull some cold air down out towards FI but, to be honest, there's no point hanging our hats on day 9 when the nearer term is downgrading run by run

Yep, and regardless of the background signals, that is where years and years of model watching experience comes into play Steve.

As I said a few weeks back, if you follow the model that is showing the worst prospects for UK cold, you won't go too far wrong

Well you're being slightly pedantic as zonal refers to a general W-E movement. We're drier at the moment due to HP dominance BUT the jet is riding around the top of the HP which is gradually sinking. So, even though we might not be mild, the jet is moving W-E over the top of the HP going forward in time. If it suits you more, I can refer to the +NAO instead, which might be a better measure...the upshot is the same. Whichever way you slice it, this is zonal/ +NAO -

Yes, summer a lot trickier to pin down. What I do remember of that summer though is forecasting the breakdown I'm not writing off winter this year- it would be stupid to do so at this point and I do believe we'll have chances as the winter goes on. It's just disappointing that it doesn't look to be shaping up as a classic- more galling after the fail of last year.

Completely agree Nick. People rightly slate the seasonals but when it comes to zonal, they are excellent at forecasting it as a zonal forecast requires less model skill (as zonal is pretty much climatological default).

The forums are free to look back upon...