CreweCold

It's not solely about the conditions in September though per se. It's setting it in context to the mumblings I'm hearing from the pros and the likes of the GLOSEA and CFS output. When you assemble it all together it's grim looking.

Those two models are in complete and utter agreement...right down to the finer details of pressure placement. It really doesn't bode well at all IMO and they would both promote the chance of a record warm winter month occurring. I would be really quite happy to be proved wrong though!

Maybe so Kev, but it seems to me that from memory recent Septembers have featured a dry, settled spell at some point after a changeable summer. I really think we may see at least one month this winter break a temperature record (and not for the right reason).

Indeed, I think the winter is relatively straight forward to forecast this year...certainly no cold ramping from me! (see my post above).

To me, the charts are suggestive of it settling down, just in time for September. Happens almost every year and IMO doesn't bode well for the forthcoming winter as this is the same pattern we've been stuck in for the past few years.

Yep, had the same here

GFS was always keen

Hahahahaha oh how I've missed this

OMG bright flash and boom!!!! I'm out of NSC!!!

I can hear thunder coming from somewhere. Lashing it down.

Indeed Pete, a brilliant performance, full of class. I just hope it wasn't a flash in the pan!

I can't see this December being anything other than predominantly mild and wet. At four month range we have the GLOSEA and CFS virtually identical in their prognosis The prognosis is about as grim as you can get for winter prospects. Put that together with what GP has noted about the likely early winter set up for the N hemisphere, it's a bleak picture. IF we get a colder than average (CET) and snowy December I'll pick one random person who has commented in this thread and paypal them a tenner. If that doesn't tempt a cold December then I don't know what will!

Complete agreement between GLOSEA and CFS now. Extremely similar in their prognosis. Horrid

Yes I noticed that the GFS is quite keen for some convective potential towards the western side of the UK overnight tomorrow.

4-0 Hammers being hammered!