CreweCold

From the mean, it seems that below average temperatures are favoured for the winter period?

Still waiting for teams to figure City out...as J10 and many pundits have said, get the ball out of that initial press and City are wide open. A clued up team could have a field day against them. It's what happened to United vs Arsenal last year when we were 3-0 down in a bout 20 mins. Arsenal just knocked the ball over the top of us repeatedly because we executed the attempted press so poorly. However, even if done well it's still exploitable.

I'm struggling to predict top 4 this year....could be a number of teams up there. Think City will get the league though.

Big departure from the 12z at days 6 and 7 More unsettled and much chillier feeling

Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962

Get that Canadian warming and it puts us in the driving seat. I'd suggest that the GLOSEA5 ensemble mean for pressure anomalies is being skewed somewhat by those members who initiate this warming...I'd wager if we were to see the individual perts, there'd be some cracking eye candy in there wrt to Greenland HP scenarios.

Gary.....I've yet to meet a Gary that isn't a complete and utter tool in one way or another.

I think my anxiety triggered my depression but can't be sure. The two are most definitely intertwined now though. Can this sort of therapy solve such an instance?

Have had generalised anxiety and depression for years now. Sometimes I just completely despair at myself, feel like there's no hope and feelings of lonliness wax and wane. I find there's many symptoms. I'm irritable around people in certain situations, I don't want to go out and interact (although sometimes I do because I feel that lonely), insomnia comes and goes, I struggle to maintain any relationship of any kind, lethargic, when anxiety strikes my heart races at a rate of knots and I develop digestion problems due to the stress, I developed OCD characteristics.......the list is pretty much endless. The worst one is sitting there feeling completely isolated from everyone else, feeling like there is just nowhere to turn or no-one to turn to. It's a feeling of helplessness which is like no other. Mentally you just give up. Mental issues such as anxiety and depression are horrid, I cannot begin to explain how much I feel they've held me back over the past 4 or 5 years or so. My mind has taken me prisoner in some respects so I have complete sympathy for fellow sufferers

Even raw GFS doesn't look that cold

Aren't Canadian warmings seen as the harbinger of cold and blocked conditions (at least early on in the season) across NW Europe? Sure I read we haven't seen one in a while. If the GLOSEA is seeing a Canadian Warming event, it perhaps explains the returns that it is showing in this month's update for pressure anomalies through the winter period?

I noticed the CFS runs I've been looking at over the past month or so have predominantly suggesting temps at or below average for October with a high pressure anomaly not too far away to the NW or NE. With the anomaly being close to the UK it could be suggestive of frost/fog at night and pleasant days.

Could see my breath, just about, when going the shop at about 10pm tonight Temperature currently at 9.1C so down comfortably into single figures tonight and comfortably colder than some nights we had back in December and January already.

I tried a winter season without the heating on much at all in quite a draughty 4 bed town house. Put it this way, chilblains on your feet are not much fun and itchy as hell! The trouble is, in the UK without heating in winter, houses get damp very quickly because of how wet it is. Damp and cold isn't a nice combination.

Have just seen this on my Facebook timeline from back in April I would say the Glosea was pretty accurate at 2-3 months out with general trend of higher pressure S & SE and lower pressure towards the NW