CreweCold

One thing that has been a clear trend recently is that troughing is shown to push further and further S. It's a gradual deterioration with the NW of the UK seeing the most unsettled of the conditions first of all. In the mid range we see the unsettled weather push across most of the country Not dire by any means but a far cry from the glorious May we experienced. On another note, the CFS (which was so bullish about an extensive mid lat high across the UK) is backing away from the glorious July it once promised The UKMO now shows at day 6 the beginning of the break up of the +NAO signature which has promoted the fine weather we have enjoyed, you can see the deeper Greenland troughing begin to dissipate

Well we've technically only had 13 days of summer so far. The glorious May was part of spring. If July and August were to come in wetter and cooler than average then quite rightly, the summer would be remembered as mixed at best.

Early August 2007...one that sticks in my mind to this day. A very localised but intense cell which seemingly just developed in situ early evening time and lasted for an hour or two without moving much at all. Prolific lightning, booming thunder and the roads turned into literal rivers of hail and flood water. I did have some pictures of the flooding but they are long gone now. Suffice to say people's homes were flooded out which is quite unusual for this location. 2007 was a great year for convection in one form or another here.

Remains to be seen how much cloud there is circulating around the top of that HP...the airmass is of a TM nature. It could very easily be muggy and cloudy from Midlands northwards....worst kind of non-descript weather there is in my very honest opinion.

We'll struggle to see any meaningful storm activity whilst we see the trend of ridging from the Azores continue. Utterly boring weather at the moment. If we could see Atlantic troughing start to dominate then we'd stand a chance and of course if we saw ridging to our E we'd stand a chance of a plume or two. As it stands....dire.

A deterioration was always likely into June, though the duration of this settled spell did take me by surprise slightly as I thought we'd see the deterioration closer to the turn of the month. Still, I've seen little evidence to suggest that May won't be the best that we see of summer. This isn't to say we will not continue to see settled or even plumey spells as we progress over the next 11-12 weeks. It won't be hard, but we're likely to see things turn a lot more unsettled over the next month... And I don't think many people can grumble at that, given what we've enjoyed thus far.

Nothing here yet again...

Look at that dry slice through NW England This region is cursed for interesting weather of any description!

Sounds about right for our storm starved Region!

Euro4 making a deal of that feature tomorrow, much more so than other modelling

Whatever happened to the days where storms would develop and push up through the Welsh Marches/W Midlands into Cheshire etc. Can remember numerous times in my childhood where that happened. In fact I think I remember @carinthian saying this was a well known thunderstorm track.

No, it almost certainly goes beyond bad luck. Happens time and again. Everything just dies off before it gets here.

Thursday looking very very interesting for some parts of the UK Initially S Wales and S England looks to be the prime focus for thunderstorms but as the afternoon wears on, these spread N to affect more of England and Wales By evening, they've made their way into southern parts of N England Available energy looks good Surface based CAPE available well into the evening period

Away from the S, today looks quite sparse in terms of storm coverage despite high CAPE values for larger parts of S/C/W UK As it stands, later on in the week looks more interesting for more of the UK...