CreweCold

Seems to have been raining for most of the night but nothing on the radar. Yes the rain is drizzle but everywhere is sodden so you'd expect it to show up on the radar!

Best thing that could have happened was United Utilities announcing that hosepipe ban. We've had several deluges since and it's raining heavily now as I speak. Nice to see the grass turning green once again after recent rainfall.

Interesting, looking back on previous postings...From the 14th and 17th July respectively- *I've been looking at the longer range today. To me it looks like next weekend may be a flash in the pan for more northern areas with a more NW/SE divide appearing thereafter as the PFJ sinks further S. Regardless, the background pattern is now slowly shifting, this may be in fits and starts at present but it is evident that ridging from the SW is having a tougher and tougher time becoming as dominant than it has done over the past couple of months **longer range modelling looks fairly set on a westerly dominated August now ***I did say it looked increasingly like the background pattern was changing. When you rely on surface features to prolong the heat rather than upper features which are more entrenched like the large HP we saw earlier on in the summer, the whole pattern lies on shaky ground. In general there has been an overall decline in pressure (though in no way linear) for the past couple of weeks. To me it looks as though the Azores HP is having more and more issue with ridging in sufficiently. Sometimes it is possible to simply monitor the modelling, along with the general synoptic trend and get a grasp on where we are headed in the longer term. The modelling did fairly well in this instance in the longer term.

January and December 2010 are probably my two favourite months winter wise. December 2010 was in fact stunning for its rime frosts and then its snowfall just before Christmas. Christmas day 2010 itself was stunningly beautiful with sunshine against a white, snowy landscape. I will count myself extremely lucky if I get to see another winter month like that before I pop my clogs.

At complete odds with GLOSEA When you have model differences like that for the upcoming winter, you still have a ticket to the lottery. When all models converge on a +NAO/+AO pattern, even several months out, that's usually what transpires. This being said, the CFS currently looks as hideous as you could get for the middle of winter There could well be a -AO but the trend at present from the long rangers I'm seeing is for the jet to be funnelled towards the UK between higher pressure to the N and S/SE. Could be some nasty wind storms and runner lows within that set up.

Still nothing here. This year has been a complete dud.

The SLP plot is even worse

I'm quite interested in tomorrow. The modelling is suggestive of possible convective activity through afternoon up through Wales, parts of the W Midlands and up into N England.

There's no way the spots being counted these days will have been spotted in the past, that's for sure.

It was clear to see a couple of weeks back that troughing was edging closer and closer to the UK with each attempt. It started affecting the extreme West, then warmed up again, then affected much of western UK, then warmed up again, then it got much further E last weekend, now its warming up again. I suspect the next attempt might send us into autumn. I believe there hasn't really been a major teleconnections change, just a natural expansion of the trough the further away from the Solstice we've headed. However, it does look like polar heights ARE increasing for some reason.

But the models depict the signals as the signals we see as a projection are model based. It's all horribly complex and interlinked. The only thing that can 'lead' anything is real time initiation data.

I'm glad you added that caveat because we have seen many times (more especially in winter) that what should happen due to current teleconnections isn't always what transpires for our shores. An avoidance of another really hot spell will be good for numerous people who have found this summer to be a bit too much. So, if we are to see a gradual winding down of the summer from here on in then I don't think many people can grumble, given what we've experienced thus far.

Well I, for one, would like to see a proper freeze up in December and January rather than the rather belated effort seen this year. A Siberian style early-mid January freeze up thank you very much!