Joe Bloggs

I remember the MetO forecast being underwhelming, but I also remember checking EURO4 on the evening of 4th Jan and it showing significant accumulations in the NW. I also remember the late Dianne Oxberry presenting the local Breakfast weather on 5th Jan - very unusual and a measure of just how severe the weather was that day. She must have checked EURO4 too

At first glance It looked like there could be some streamer activity first thing up the Mersey but the model isn’t picking up on any accumulation at all on this frame. p

Grim. What a shame. These things are never easy are they!

A band of snow showers move through the region between 3 and 6am tomorrow morning. Very limited accumulations though, barely a dusting anywhere. The trough develops across Cumbria and North Lancs and gives up to 8cm of snow in places , however turning to rain in western parts of the region as it sinks south through the day. Snow showers clipping west of the region Wednesday night. More snow showers on Thursday, heavy in places as the day goes on. 1-3cm quite widely away from the coast. Tomorrow morning will be a good test of UKV as most other output suggests a slight covering whereas UKV suggests only trace accumulations for the Manchester area.

12z ARPEGE gives a light covering for most also.

A good one to have on board, and also good to see the agreement with GFS.

12z GFS gives 2cm of snow to Manchester by 9am.

12z GFS shows snow showers tomorrow morning. Reaching the coast by 3am and then most parts of the region by about 9am. 10am onwards as the trough develops, the snow risk is restricted to Lancs and Cumbria with some heavy precipitation forecast. Sadly, dewpoints rise to above freezing alongside the trough’s development west of M6, however given the heavy precipitation it wouldn’t surprise me if higher ground in the north gets clobbered.

I’ll be keen to look at the 15z UKV , not sure when it’s available . After that it’s a case of looking out of the window.

Is COSMO any good? Bring back EURO4 that’s what I say!

Yes UKV seems to think so. Generally west and north of Manchester. Still uncertain though. 06z Arpege agrees. Manchester will potentially be on the edge of the convective zone

MetO app has eased back on any snow in Manchester tomorrow as I think it’s because the UKV keeps the snow risk mainly to the west of the region , however the actual maps are suggestive of showers pretty much anywhere. FWIW these are the charts. More organised snow into Cumbria and North Lancs later with rain on the coast.

Icon 18z not a bad run , shower activity Thursday too giving another covering. Plus a little feature moving through Wednesday

I watched it and I’m sure I saw some snow showers over our patch. TBH though I’d go with this forum (Kasim etc) over that forecast any day . Especially now the BBC doesn’t use the MetO.

12z WRF has barely any snow showers at all Tuesday morning. A weakening trough moving south, some snow in Cumbria but not much if any elsewhere,

lol bear in mind that altitude won’t make as much of a difference later in the week. More important will be the wind direction and shower distribution . I have to say it’s nice to see the UKV with such an upgrade for Thursday. Clear now why the MetO have gone for that warning. Nothing spectacular but beggars can’t be choosers.

12z Arpege , note further north in the region has a fair amount of snow through Tuesday morning however turning marginal through the day as the trough weakens. Note also unlike UKV no snow showers are shown Thursday. I think most of the region will see at least a flake or two before the week is out.

15z UKV has snow showers moving through the region Tuesday morning , nothing spectacular though . A light covering in Merseyside, Greater Manchester, South Lancs and parts of Cumbria, no more than a few cm. The trough doesn’t give much to the NW at all, maybe some snow in Cumbria but it dies a death as it moves south, also risk of rain in the Carlisle area. Mainly dry Wednesday but some Cheshire gap showers breaking out . Becoming more widespread overnight into Thursday and Thursday night. A covering just about everywhere except the immediate coast.

Remember guys - the apps are notoriously bad at picking up on convective stuff. I think (not 100% sure) for more than 48 hours ahead - the MetO app uses MOGREPS. Within 48 hours - UKV. I’m not saying it’ll definitely snow but the fact the apps contradict the warning isn’t a massive surprise.

NW’ly wind and low heights. The MetO clearly suspect snow showers - note these won’t necessarily be picked up by the apps, we see this time and time again.

Assume that means you’re flying Emirates on the A380? Brilliant way to travel. As for Thailand - absolutely wonderful place. The food is incredible. Also given the time of year you’ll be going - expect to see some amazing lightning displays.

Nice to see snow forecast at temps below freezing. Tuesday morning looks like our best bet for now.

Hello yea many times! A northerly yes we nearly always stay dry unless there are troughs in the flow. NNW’ly though - Wirral and West Cheshire get snow. NW’ly - South and Mid Cheshire get it. WNW’ly - South Manchester and North Cheshire/Peaks. W’ly - Most of region at risk Basically have seen us get snow many times if wind backs NW’ly, just depends on the vector. Low heights too on this one which should help. Edit - you look well placed with your elevation.

The trough is slow moving and associated with some heavy precipitation on the UKV. It’s a massive shame rain is predicted near the coast though. If it was all snow…..

Latest UKV is interesting. Supports Kasim’s analysis very strongly