Joe Bloggs
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Dark Horse sorry I meant there has not been a shield preventing the precipitation . Lack of precipitation / too light hasn’t been the issue. Fairly moderate to heavy all morning.
The fact the air has more moisture (supportive of rain rather than snow) has maybe helped to an extent but not the full story I’d suspect.
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25 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
I've heard the shield is when it's more south east wind. Easterly today? I'm on tram into manc willing it to snow. It did briefly. This type of snow event rarely delivers for manc. Was forever thus. Bring on those lovely Irish Sea showers. Thats our fab friend
Yes I think you are on to something there.
There really hasn’t been much of a shield today , loads of big puddles everywhere. I think a direct E’ly or NE’ly may be better. Noting this for future.
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Shield has failed
Snowing but not settling in central Manchester now
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Geordiesnow makes sense! However I have seen the shadow effect in operation in a 100% rain scenario in spring/summer so can’t be the full story.
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Pouring it down (with rain) in Manchester.
What has happened to the shield? Just trying to learn more about it.
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Not much sign of a rain shadow effect right now it has to be said. Maybe it will kick in later as the easterly gets stronger. Today will be a good test.
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Will be interesting to see if the shield is in play if it’s all rain. Will laugh if it lashes it down in Manchester all day
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Day 10 looks great for you
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FWIW, we’re now in the range of the high-res WRF 2km model. At 12z tomorrow it shows quite limited snow lying across the North West, best place to be away from high ground is the Wirral
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Not expecting anything here. Interesting re. The METAR for Manchester @Weather-history , I bet there are historical events where the shield has failed for synoptic reasons, I doubt it will this time as the easterly is strong and heights are modest.
Have a good day everyone! Will be an interesting event regardless.
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Kasim Awan Manchester is the second biggest urban area in the UK and the population is growing rapidly.
Maybe it should get a mention in forecasts when frontal snow is forecast widely across Northern England as the graphics can sometimes be misleading. I’ve heard it mentioned once by Dianne Oxberry (RIP) in 2013.
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Kasim Awan it’s all very interesting stuff really.
There aren’t really any other urban areas in the UK with similar geography (extensive high ground immediately to the E).
I haven’t watched the MetO deep dive but I wonder if it’s covered on there. I reckon a fair few Mancs will wonder where the snow is on Thursday.
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13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
There will be no shield away circled so Manchester city centre, Ashton, Stockport, Wilmslow and Poynton.
So places like Northwich, Warrington, Liverpool, Wirral, etc are still in for a decent chance. Will update tomorrow.
I hate this phenomenon so much. Absolutely vile.
Why is it so prominent when the Peaks are such modest altitude? Also do we just notice this one because it affects a major urban area and frontal snow events usually have winds from an easterly quarter ?
Makes me sick!
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26 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
raul_sbd You'll be fine from Glossop. Trains in Buxton don't stop unless drifts are upto train window level.
I was stranded on a train just outside Dove Holes in March 2013. The engines were at full pelt but we just stopped moving.
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Rob 79812010 same! Wish I knew more about it.
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06z WRF is very promising. The high res 2km model won’t come into range until tomorrow though.
In terms of snow depth at midday Thursday, we’re looking at a very small slither immediately to the west of the Pennines which is snow free, as well as around Morecambe Bay and North Cumbria. Everywhere else in the NW has a covering, including the coast, around 3-4cm in most places, more on higher ground.
I’m almost certainly clutching at straws, but the surface wind vector Thursday is ENE’ly early hours then veering direct E’ly through the day. I’m guessing this specific direction will have an impact on the specific areas that are affected by the shield and may be less impactful than a SE’ly or ESE’ly.
WRF shows a very limited shield area, western parts of Greater Manchester for example are shown to get lying snow.
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UKV shows the shield
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As you’d expect at this range, GFS isn’t picking up on the shield effect (the high res will do).
Been a while since we’ve seen such a widespread snow event forecast at close range. Looks good.
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Looking very good for west of the region and away from the Manchester conurbation.
Fingers crossed for you all.
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6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
If when people say low heights they mean low geopotential heights then you can't get much lower than what's coming up.
I’m sure it was @Kasim Awan who said to look out for the darker blues (lower 500 hPa geopotential heights) for signs of the shield effect being overridden. I could be talking rubbish.
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7 minutes ago, Slidergate '17 said:
I remember many moons ago first encountering the infamous "snow shield" and scoffed thinking that's just so ridiculous its completely impossible to verify...
I didnt realise it was a thing until 2013. I saw a snowy frontal chart with a SE’ly and was told by Tom C on TWO - that setup doesn’t give snow to Manchester because of the peaks and he was spot on of course.
There will be occasions when snow has fallen and settled but I think it is very rare, either an EXTREMELY active front, very low heights and/or very light winds.
I think Feb 1996 was a southerly ? And was a very active stalling front.
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Dark Horse if the winds are from an easterly quarter we’ll be looking at a dry slot or very light precipitation at best.
Low heights (looks unlikely) or very very light winds/calm would perhaps save the day (also unlikely).
If you live in Manchester it’s not worth torturing yourself , we see this over and over again.
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Found this great pic of central Manchester from January 1979, looks like a good covering ! Bet it wasn’t a SE’ly wind.
source:
Spectacular photos of Greater Manchester under feet of snow stir memories of ruthless winters - Manchester Evening News
WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK
Plummeting temperatures and heavy snow fall can bring both fun and danger-
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Lots of good things about Manchester but snow isn’t of them
