dingdong

http://www.traffic-wales.com/cctvdetail.aspx?t=cctv&r=CAM_A465_41_6A_8487&x=307931&y=208146&s=&format=xhtml&lang=en-GB merthyr looking white

I was working night and had to travel from Cwmbran to caerphilly. Snow started about 1am, I left work at 01:30 (much to the annoyance of my boss who wanted me to stay) and I only just got home. Absolutely hammered down

Just drove from Lisvane in Cardiff to caerphilly and back. temp on the car was reading Lisvane 5.0c Top of Caerphilly Mountain +1.5c Caeephilly +3.5c back in Lisvane +4.5c

Periods of rain, then snow then rain then snow in Caerphilly. Cars are white, but nowt else DD

Agree andy, although I think Sunday night/Monday morning is the one for us http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0

Well after resigning myself to a rain only event nae throws up this. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=24&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Surely not, it can't do. Can it? Edit; has a bit if backing from the NMM DD

Much better placement of the low so far this morning. This is illustrated by nae. Looking at 00z 42 compared to 18z 48, then backed up by the 0z 48 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Gfs has low further north still, but positioning is better than yesterday's. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=0 Still impossible to call, but would imagine the warning yellow area come 11:30 will be further south. Wrt the moaning of the warning yesterday, pleae remember to check the impact charts. The impact chart on Thursday was ticked as ' low chance of happening' but with a ' high impact' if it did. Don't just assume yellow warning =snow or something will happen. As a result of the warning we have made changes to our work pattern on Monday. Now if it does not snow nothing is lost and it is bau as a few things have been jigged about. If it does snow bad Sunday night, and there was no warning originally put in place we would not be able to operate viably as a profitable business Monday as it would be too late to make changes DD

Would normally agree mike, temps this evening widely around 0c with uppers if between -8c and -6c, however DP's of +1c to +3c will scupper chances of sleey/snow. Still. Looking at the output Sunday through next Thursday I'm not going to complain DD

I'm going to hazard a guess, having just taken a look at the ECMWF Ens mean rainfall projections of mostly circa 1-2mm at most (given temperature profile, probably a signal for <2cm of snow) they do not current expect this to be a hazard. I can almost guarantee that as we move closer to the event, the amount of convection taking place will finally start to show on modelling (which has ALWAYS underestimated it - this is the single biggest improvement that must be made to short term high resolution modelling at the very least!) and the Met Office will scramble to get warnings out as the snow starts falling. Embedded troughs and disturbances thrive in a flow such as the one being shown, and I'd expect at least a small covering of snow in many Northern, Western and Eastern counties at the very least by Wednesday evening...and thats before taking in to account the potential for these extra disturbances developing in the flow

I agree, with the current set up it is likely embedded troughs running across the country bringing more organised precipitation north-west to south-east, though the heaviest of any falls still looks more likely the further North and West you head

Hmmm, remember this? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2004/archives-2004-1-28-0-0.png Got about 10 cm of snow that day, Now look at this Interesting I would say

For the north east maybe, that chart does not show any more snow over the bulk of the country as what is does at +0z

Caerphilly castle at 6:30 am

I probably should post this (but I'm going to anyway) it's email from net office sent to work. From: Weatherall, Malcolm [mailto:malcolm.weatherall@metoffice.gov.uk] Sent: 18 January 2013 11:08 To: Weatherall, Malcolm Subject: Snow- latest situation Morning All Here’s a very quick update re the snow situation. It’s expected to continue to snow across Wales through the morning with intensities varying and the scope for heavy snow at times and further significant disruption in many areas. Some drifting is to be expected in the strong southeasterly winds with snow accretion on power lines etc possibly causing some problems too. There will be a tendency for the snow to turn to rain/sleet in parts of Pembrokeshire and some areas bordering the Bristol Channel however, mainly Swansea westwards. During the course of the afternoon the snow is expected to become more patchy across much of the southern half of Wales although it may well remain persistent across parts of the Gwent region. However, across the northern half of Wales it’s likely to persist and continue to turn heavy at times and continue into the evening. The current warnings continue to give good guidance re expected snow amounts. Overnight, the snow will gradually become lighter and more patchy and mainly confined to eastern areas of Wales by the end of the night. The forecast over the weekend currently indicates mainly dry conditions although some light snow may affect eastern areas at times. It’s also expected to remain cold with low daytime temperatures and sharp overnight frosts. Hence, today’s snow is not expected to thaw very much during the weekend. The forecast for Monday indicates the potential for slightly less cold conditions but with showers of sleet/snow possible. If you wish to contact me today please give me a call on my mobile. Regards Malcolm

Just started again in Caerphilly