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Bobby

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Bobby last won the day on August 24 2012

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  1. 234mm this Nov at the half-way point, 114% LTA. At this rate we will beat Nov 2009 but not likely with the drying out in the models of late, probably reach 300mm though. 1,924mm for the year so far. 2,328mm since December.
  2. Here's a good resource to flick through with information on the weather, models and how to understand them.. and lots more http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/ http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/15 http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/214 http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/76 http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/140 This another great resource, you could spend weeks reading through all the goodies here. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/
  3. Yes, several thousand miles of ocean to our west with the prevailing 'default' wind direction also being W/SW (driven by low pressure to our N and high pressure to our S). This water is also unusually warm due to the Gulf Stream.. so another thing that counts against us in winter. The ocean has a much higher heat capacity than land meaning it warms very slowly and cools very slowly - which moderates any temperature extremes in areas affected by this oceanic air mass. Less extreme cold in winter, less extreme heat in summer. Also unlike the USA we don't have a landmass to our N in which to import frigid polar air... any cold air that comes down from the pole is again moderated by the Atlantic by the time it gets to us (although we can get very cold air from the N of course but nothing like the USA). So to get extremes of cold, heat we usually have to get our weather from the continental landmass to our E where such extremes occur. For this we usually need a blocking anticyclone to our north somewhere to reverse the normal westerly flow (because air travels clockwise around an anti-cyclone, anti-clockwise around a cyclone, so high pressure to our north will bring air from the east.) More info on our climate type http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanic_climate
  4. The 18z GFS ensembles are overall more unsettled than the 12z with disturbed Atlantic weather more frequent. However there are some interesting solutions popping up in FI, this has been a little trend recently. Just for fun but look at some of these cold pools lurking to the E... I get a feeling something mayyy be stirring in the models.
  5. It's best to avoid any newspaper weather predictions, they're in the business of selling headlines after all. I'd also be wary of these "independent forecasters" such as James Madden etc. Hell, I'd just not pay much attention to any long range forecast to be honest, even the best are just stabs in the dark and are only of curiosity value in my opinion. If looking for an idea about the weather longer term you can't go wrong with the Met Office further outlook (6-30 day forecast) for reliability and accuracy. And of course following the models and seeing what they're up to for yourself can be fun too..
  6. The GEFS ensembles are all over the place at +144hrs, forget about it day 7. Only agreement is the low bringing rain into the SW later on Tuesday although there's a lot variation even then at +96hrs-108hrs. And that it doesn't look cold any time soon.
  7. Yes I think I'd rather just go through a spell of zonal weather and push things through.. clear off the energy to the E/NE and then see what happens upstream. Some ghastly charts this evening. Warm air all the way from N. Africa on the UKMO +144, give me cool zonality any day over that. Interestingly on Monday there's growing agreement on a low moving W bringing some fairly heavy rain across the country from the E. Not often that happens, if only we had very cold uppers to our E... GFSP, GEM. Uppers not too far off..
  8. Each cubic meter of water weighs a metric tonne. So in each wave hitting against a wall there must be thousands of tonnes of water smashing into it at speed. Again and again and again. A helluva lot of energy! Just imagine how much energy is contained in a large 950mb Atlantic storm, must be colossal.
  9. Looking at the ensembles this morning a build of high pressure settling things down for the S/SE looks to be low probability with unsettled weather for most dominant. Although as typical in a zonal setup, the most unsettled weather to the NW/W and driest to the SE. NAEFS, GEM day 12. ECM day 10 means ECM day 10, NAEFS day 12 pressure anomalies The vortex is getting organised at day 10 although not raging, similar picture on the NAEFS at the end ECM making most out of the block to the NE although it is fading with time, so I imagine if the ECM went further the block would be further weakened. Not a great outlook for cold for the forseeable. For winter cold, we may have to actually wait until winter starts in 2 weeks time before the possibility opens up. Better this weather now than in a few weeks/months. No big deal in the big picture..
  10. I'd suggest not taking charts at +240 literally whatever they show. They will always chop and change significantly from one run to the next. It's best to use the ensemble mean/anomalies at that range if looking for patterns in the vortex etc. ECM ens mean 00z yesterday vs today, same time period So todays run has the chunk of the PV somewhat stronger to the NW and much more influencing the UK than yesterday's.
  11. The wind certainly is very strong here, house shaking. Must be really rough further W. Remarkable contrast in the winds over Ireland as the front passes through. Gales to nothing in a few minutes.
  12. That low forms from cold air ejected from Canada engaging with tropical air being sucked up from around the Azores. See at 120hrs. I don't see how that can be described as anything other than an Atlantic low pressure moving into the UK?
  13. GFS 18z continuing the theme with some very disturbed zonal weather taking over. The parallel essentially the same. Atlantic moves in at 144hrs Day 10 GFS op and parallel
  14. Looking at the NAEFS spreads there's quite a bit of divergence around the UK. I imagine due to solutions varying between high pressure over/near the UK and the jet tracking further south putting us into an Atlantic onslaught. That split can be seen in the GEFS. Less uncertainty over the bigger picture though with the vortex getting organised and those low heights to the NW. So the main uncertainty is regards to what latitude the jet tracks over the UK when it fires up.. which is of higher confidence.
  15. We had a lot of that last year, very cold air from the far NW flying across the Atlantic towards us. Great for the Scottish ski industry but for almost everyone else the cold air only fuels the Atlantic and batters us with wind and rain. Looks like a seriously turbocharged jet setting up on the ECM. If that gets going one feels it's going to take some stopping, especially with those intense low heights to our NW which may get resupplied by the other main area of the PV over Siberia which looks a persistent feature. Still, early days and all can change by early-mid December. Wouldn't be getting worried yet unless you're impatient for early cold/snow.
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