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Bobby last won the day on August 24 2012

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  1. Some interesting charts appearing now. I feel something is brewing, momentum is slowly building towards... something. Is it starting again? JFF!
  2. 234mm this Nov at the half-way point, 114% LTA. At this rate we will beat Nov 2009 but not likely with the drying out in the models of late, probably reach 300mm though. 1,924mm for the year so far. 2,328mm since December.
  3. Here's a good resource to flick through with information on the weather, models and how to understand them.. and lots more http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/ http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/15 http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/214 http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/76 http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/140 This another great resource, you could spend weeks reading through all the goodies here. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/
  4. Yes, several thousand miles of ocean to our west with the prevailing 'default' wind direction also being W/SW (driven by low pressure to our N and high pressure to our S). This water is also unusually warm due to the Gulf Stream.. so another thing that counts against us in winter. The ocean has a much higher heat capacity than land meaning it warms very slowly and cools very slowly - which moderates any temperature extremes in areas affected by this oceanic air mass. Less extreme cold in winter, less extreme heat in summer. Also unlike the USA we don't have a landmass to our N in which to import frigid polar air... any cold air that comes down from the pole is again moderated by the Atlantic by the time it gets to us (although we can get very cold air from the N of course but nothing like the USA). So to get extremes of cold, heat we usually have to get our weather from the continental landmass to our E where such extremes occur. For this we usually need a blocking anticyclone to our north somewhere to reverse the normal westerly flow (because air travels clockwise around an anti-cyclone, anti-clockwise around a cyclone, so high pressure to our north will bring air from the east.) More info on our climate type http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanic_climate
  5. The 18z GFS ensembles are overall more unsettled than the 12z with disturbed Atlantic weather more frequent. However there are some interesting solutions popping up in FI, this has been a little trend recently. Just for fun but look at some of these cold pools lurking to the E... I get a feeling something mayyy be stirring in the models.
  6. It's best to avoid any newspaper weather predictions, they're in the business of selling headlines after all. I'd also be wary of these "independent forecasters" such as James Madden etc. Hell, I'd just not pay much attention to any long range forecast to be honest, even the best are just stabs in the dark and are only of curiosity value in my opinion. If looking for an idea about the weather longer term you can't go wrong with the Met Office further outlook (6-30 day forecast) for reliability and accuracy. And of course following the models and seeing what they're up to for yourself can be fun too..
  7. Bobby

    BBC TV and radio listings from yesteryears.

    They sure don't make Saturday TV like they used to. Live and Kicking, Grandstand, Generation Game, Noel's House Party ... (looking at 1996)
  8. Bobby

    Wales - Weather Chat

    There's a lot of uncertainty in the models at the moment but I think it's most likely to be unsettled. However there's a decent chance of settled weather from a build of high pressure too... so watch this space.
  9. The GEFS ensembles are all over the place at +144hrs, forget about it day 7. Only agreement is the low bringing rain into the SW later on Tuesday although there's a lot variation even then at +96hrs-108hrs. And that it doesn't look cold any time soon.
  10. Yes I think I'd rather just go through a spell of zonal weather and push things through.. clear off the energy to the E/NE and then see what happens upstream. Some ghastly charts this evening. Warm air all the way from N. Africa on the UKMO +144, give me cool zonality any day over that. Interestingly on Monday there's growing agreement on a low moving W bringing some fairly heavy rain across the country from the E. Not often that happens, if only we had very cold uppers to our E... GFSP, GEM. Uppers not too far off..
  11. Bobby

    How long have you been a 'weather nut'?

    When I was about 6-7 my mother used to call me 'Michael Fish' because I was always talking about the weather. So... pretty much always! Perhaps my earliest weather memory was skating on the frozen reservoir during the cold spell in February 1991. And throwing big rocks trying to break the ice, mostly without success... was very thick. Also good memories of a white Christmas in the early 90s... not sure what year. Winter 1995-1996 lives long in the memory. During lunchbreak at school I remember graupel blowing around in a strong wind, then as we went back to class the snow started and got heavier and heavier and were eventually sent home. Absolute whiteout on the way home and got stuck in traffic. It continued snowing until the early hours and there was about a foot by the end that lasted a few weeks. Much fun sledging in the Brecon Beacons, skating on ponds and lakes... good times.
  12. Bobby

    Atlantic Storms Autumn 2014

    Each cubic meter of water weighs a metric tonne. So in each wave hitting against a wall there must be thousands of tonnes of water smashing into it at speed. Again and again and again. A helluva lot of energy! Just imagine how much energy is contained in a large 950mb Atlantic storm, must be colossal.
  13. Looking at the ensembles this morning a build of high pressure settling things down for the S/SE looks to be low probability with unsettled weather for most dominant. Although as typical in a zonal setup, the most unsettled weather to the NW/W and driest to the SE. NAEFS, GEM day 12. ECM day 10 means ECM day 10, NAEFS day 12 pressure anomalies The vortex is getting organised at day 10 although not raging, similar picture on the NAEFS at the end ECM making most out of the block to the NE although it is fading with time, so I imagine if the ECM went further the block would be further weakened. Not a great outlook for cold for the forseeable. For winter cold, we may have to actually wait until winter starts in 2 weeks time before the possibility opens up. Better this weather now than in a few weeks/months. No big deal in the big picture..
  14. Bobby

    Ireland Regional Weather Chat

    A serious amount of rain for you up there, perhaps some 100mm 24/36hr totals? What sort of figures have you recorded for the month so far? Seems to have been even wetter than here! NMM 2km accumulation until the morning Crikey
  15. Bobby

    Wales - Weather Chat

    Nice lenticular clouds formed over the Brecon Beacons this afternoon. Haven't seen good ones for a while.