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Jason M

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  1. I wonder if the record most under threat during this spell will be the nighttime one. Could be some very warm nights indeed.
  2. Not sure it would have been many people's wish, but the possibility has been well represented in the ensemble suites for the last couple of weeks that we might see something akin to a Spanish plume. I thought there was a high chance of some notable warmth mid month but I confess that I never expected it to last for this long!!
  3. We could of course keep pumping loads of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere thereby melting all arctic sea ice and disrupting the gulf stream that way. Of course that would be a mad course of action. Oh, wait a minute...………….
  4. Oddly enough, as I walked around Ramsgate in the warm sun today, Scary was the word that also came into my mind. Looking at the ECM tonight I'm tempted to put 'very' in front of that word!!
  5. But the weather systems are products of global drivers, they do not of themselves impact the pattern. So, for instance a shortwave is created because of the bigger global / background drivers. It might appear therefore that the appearance of a shortwave has scuppered the chances of a cold spell when everything looks favorable. The reality however is that the shortwave is only there because the 'background signals' are actually not favorable. The same is true where a 'trigger low' heralds a cold easterly. It only does so because the drivers / background create the conditions for it. So it comes back to my point that the signals were clearly not favorable because if they were the outcome would have been different. Had we seen copious amounts of northern blocking but missed out in our tiny little island maybe it would be a different argument. That's why John Holmes will predict in the way he does and more often than not he's broadly correct. Anyway probably enough on this as we will just have to agree to disagree.
  6. I disagree. People believed they were favorable but that's not the same as them actually being favorable. This clearly leads to a conclusion that understanding is incomplete. In fairness to lots of people on here who have interest in some of the drivers they have pretty much admitted as much and frankly there's nowt wrong with admitting that! .
  7. Never been keen on this phrase myself. When we talk about background signals what does that mean? I struggle to see how anyone can say the background signals have been favorable this winter because they clearly haven't been, or else we would have seen something meaningful. Yes there was a SSW but a combination of other factors (which are not really fully understood) have led to a crap winter. There has never at any point been much evidence of any HLB in the output we have seen. The reality is that the signals were very poor but people misunderstood them (and that's not a criticism of anyone). The key background signal this winter has been southern European heights and the only consolation will be if the sheer persistence of these continues for much longer we can look forward to some genuine warmth next month, which if we cant get snow is surely the next best thing!
  8. Whilst I disagree with your use of the day 16 mean chart to illustrate your point it’s hard to disagree with the conclusion sadly.
  9. Models are really gunning for southern euro heights this morning. At the end of FI the gfsp is notable for the Spanish plume that just misses us to our east. For feb some extraordinary 850s across Spain and France. This type of scenario isn’t a complete outlier either albeit given the range it’s clearly just for passing interest. in terms of cold there are several gefs that go very cold towards the end but again all way out beyond day 10. Ecm could easily go cold beyond day 10. So in my mind I think we’re just a few days away now from getting ready to throw the towel in terms of a notable spell of deep cold this winter. That certainly doesn’t preclude some traditional transient heavy snow events through early March though. For me this winter has been one of complete lack of promise tbh. I completely get the whole background, teleconnections, ssw thing and nobody will ever see me criticize any of it because it has its place, but in terms of the considerable amount of output we can see there has rarely been any thing much of note shown at all. In fact to get through winter with only one major easterly letdown is noteworthy of itself. Accepting of course that we are not quite done yet, this winter looks like finishing as a largely mild, dry and generally benign season (albeit accepting it’s not particularly benign this morning outside!). Edit: just seen ido post. The day 16 mean is utterly meaningless this morning. Probably 75% of the gefs are mild or very mild at that range, with the remaining 25% very cold or heading that way. As per above I think the cold solution is very unlikely but only rarely is a day 16 mean chart of any value and today is not one of those rare accasions imho. .
  10. So, a UK high. You wouldn't want to bet much against it as its a repeating pattern. Very typical of the 12Z ensemble suite.
  11. GEM only has about 25% support from its own ensembles. So, oddly we have GEM opp, GFSP opp, Navgem opp, and about 50% support from the GEFS. Encouraging but obviously its on a knife edge so great caution needed.
  12. This would seem to be the perfect opportunity for ECM to throw out one of its day 10 easterlies. Don't fall for it people
  13. I assume your being ironic here. Not how I see it this evening.
  14. Para going the way of GEM. Of note amongst the GEFS was that despite looking good at 180 most then went on to dump us under a UK high yet again. Lets see where this one takes us!
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