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Jason M

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  1. I guess that the fact that opp and control went together is a big plus. Probably worthy of a raised eyebrow at this point but not much more.
  2. Agree. at the very least, lets see it backed up from some other models. Unlike the day 10 easterlies it can't completely disregarded at that timeframe but at least we won't need to wait for too long as I suspect by this evening it will get some support or will disappear to that mysterious place where ECM easterlies go to die when it updates this afternoon!
  3. The long trailed brutal cold spell has finally arrived and set in here with a vengeance this morning. Currently 6c at 8am. I'll need to pack the emergency cold weather gear when I go out this morning. The wind chill must be brutal. I might build a 'potential snow' man later today. Even better this mornings ECM run means that further opportunities to enjoy the 'potential' snow await. Could life get any better
  4. Some slight incremental improvements but whilst those heights remain over or close to Spain and Portugal we can forget any major cold spell. Get those oranges to back west a bit and its a completely different position. Unfortunately once established its often hard work to shift them.
  5. Still some good GEFS as Nick mentioned. The control is dire though, so if things go true to form these will start to drop away over the next 24 hours. There still remains enough scatter to suggest its not yet a done deal so a few straws to cling onto.
  6. If I was offered that run on condition of seeing no more snow this winter or next winter, I'd bank that every time. That easterly would just keep on coming. No doubt the pub run will sober us all up Edit - allowed myself a little ramp there!!!
  7. I rea I like this run. It just makes sense.... trough drops to SE, pressure builds NE, boom. As you say GEFS will be very interesting to see how much support is present.
  8. Good run, no doubt about that. If were going to get an easterly this winter this will be the moment IMHO. GFS looks a plausible solution and whilst that's no guarantee its a good start Edit - Right on cue, lovely old school easterly in FI.
  9. you do have a nasty habit of making barbed posts like this and I know I have picked you up on it in the past. I respectfully suggest you think before you post and show a bit more maturity. Where I don't like posts I try to ignore them unless aimed specifically at me maybe you should do the same. Perhaps you could put me on ignore (I will be taking my own advice here)? Had you read my post properly and in the proper context you would have realised it was not about cherry picking whatsoever, I simply made the point that we are IMHO reaching something of a crossroads and highlighting that there are two very different outcomes on offer. I also highlighted that some will do very well this week, but my view remains that this week is overall nothing out of the ordinary for a uk winter. Synoptically it's s bit unusual given the strong westerly component but in actual weather it's essentially a rather cold, windy wintry week. Re this week if you expect something more extreme that's your opinion and I have no issue with it. People can look back next week and assess who was right. Fwiw I hope we do get lots of snow. A covering of wet snow can't be discounted anywhere this week but it's nothing unusual for the time of year in my view. That could change in week two if we get lucky. People should be able to post without being jumped on for not predicting snowmaggedon. I know a lot of people get nervous about posting in here for that very reason, edit it above based on last nights charts as only just catching up this morning!
  10. Hmm, hope your right. I thought the GEM ensembles looked ominous earlier today. The signal didn't look transient to me. That said, its still a long way out and I take on board GPs comments earlier. We have this week to get through first albeit it looks like a bog standard winter cold spell to me rather than anything noteworthy (just my opinion before anyone gets excited ). Obviously in saying that I do recognize some will do very well, particularly on higher ground in the NW and even down here I reckon we will see some snow fall (along with some cold rain). Edit GEFS look more 'mixed' with a few good uns thrown in. prtb 16 is nice http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=360&mode=0&carte=0
  11. Interesting to see the heights rise over Iberia at the end of the run. I noticed the GEM ensembles had a lot of examples of this earlier. GP suggested this might show earlier today but felt it would be an over reaction to something. Will be worth watching over the next few days though to see if this trend builds. Sincerely hope not as we might start seeing that squirrel return to the thread if so. I have a feeling that around days 8-10 we may be approaching the fork in the road for this winter. Interesting set up which could go either way. At least we have a spin of the wheel this year though!
  12. Maybe, maybe not. This pattern is different in that we are not seeing warm air being pumped up into Europe ahead of any easterly. IF (and it is an if) we do get lucky with the pattern there should be some cold uppers to tap into.
  13. Run through the sequence and you can see that everything speeds west to east as soon as it goes low res. Post 240 its a waste of processing power.
  14. And right on cue, it goes into low res and its immediately game over. Ignore post 240. Good to see it moving through the timescales. No guarantees that it will amount to anything special but we are at least in the game for once.
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