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Jason M

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  1. I'd agree with that. In fact I would be tempted to bank a day with just a light covering. I'm expecting to see zero snow here this year. It would only be the 2nd snowless winter in my lifetime albeit both will have occurred within a few short years if it comes to pass as I expect. I thought this winter would be awful from as far back as early December. I'm not claiming any superior knowledge here but simply just a gut feel based on many years experience (and pretty much all LRFs are saying the same thing). Any tiny bit of lingering doubt over global warming (and there wasn't much doubt!!) was dispelled by the ridiculous warm spell of last Feb. I fear this winter is a sign of things to come. Whilst it would be ludicrous to say no more cold snowy weather its getting harder to achieve and the changes seem to be happening really quickly now! Anyway, hopefully the weather will prove me wrong. Given Jan is pretty much a write off though, I wont be holding my breath for this winter. Just a case of seeing if we can squeeze one short sharp cold snap from somewhere.
  2. In fairness its usually the hope that is the enemy on here. The models have responded by removing any hope this season Looking through the models today still no sign of anything wintry for most of us. From looking through the 06 GEFS more chance of a Spanish plume than deep cold. It wouldn't take much to pull up some real warmth from the south with this set up.
  3. Just looked through the various model runs and to be honest they look awful. Its highly unlikely that we will get heights in the right place as the northern arm of the jet will simply not allow it with such a well organized PV. Love to be proved wrong but the very best I can see is a mid Lat high. That will allow for some good time lapse snow videos from Greece but that's about it!
  4. The problem comes from the temp only hitting those levels for a very short period in the day. Last Feb was bizarre but I fear its going to become the new normal. Don't bet against a repeat this year given that were looking at high pressure being prevalent over Iberia. If this persists into Feb then all bets are off.
  5. Blizzards of rain away from high ground sadly. 850 values of around -4c on a PM flow won't deliver much for most. This type of chart can be so misleading Pennines might do OK though under this.
  6. This shortwave issue is the original 'chicken and egg' My take is that these small features only 'seem to thwart' snowmaggeden. The reality is that the atmosphere simply isn't conducive and that's why the shortwave exists. Equally the famous 'trigger low' forms because the atmosphere is conducive and the low forms as the mechanism by which the atmosphere brings about its desired state. Whatever people believe though, its clear that both the egg and the chicken are more likely to end up barbequed than frozen over the next few weeks
  7. With pressure forecast to be high across Iberia any short term modelling differences of particular features won't make a jot of difference to what most people on here want. Once the models start showing orange and red colours in that part of the world were on a one way ticket to Mildville. If its any consolation were in good company for a green Xmas (below from BBC website) Moscow 3c Cloudy Helsinki 4c Drizzle Boston (US) 6C Sunny Tromso (Norway) 2c Drizzle For balance Oslo is sunny at 0C GEFS have strong signal for heights to our south for the next couple of weeks.
  8. For me the most shocking thing is that I'm not even surprised anymore. Our climate is changing at rapid pace.
  9. Not just us having a 'green' Xmas. Moscow isn't faring much better this year. BBC website saying 9c there on Monday.
  10. First bit of interest of the season for me tonight . Inside 10 days and enough GEFS backing to warrant a second look. Probably be gone in the morning but still! I wonder if were headed for a mid lat high (maybe UK based?) but lets see what the morning runs bring. As we all know the 00Z tends to be the hangover after the pub run
  11. The short waves are a result of the predominant pattern not the driver of it. A shortwave doesn't scupper anything it simply means that the atmosphere isn't supportive of what were hoping for. Always happy to be proved wrong but I see no evidence whatsoever that any deep cold will arrive at our shores over the next couple of weeks (I'd wager we agree on the last bit).
  12. Agree, seen this too many times at that distance. Get a decent mean chart at day 9 or 10, then it becomes worth a notice. A day 16 mean chart isn't worth the pixels its shown on.
  13. Feb was a real shock to me. Days of temps around 20c!!!! No doubt our climate is changing with increasing speed. Cold is still possible but my expectations for this winter are very low indeed. I suspect it might be snowless down here. One of those winters where if your offered a one day of proper snow you bank it!! Fingers crossed I'm wrong. I suspect a non descript Jan and an early spring in mid Feb might be where were headed as heights build over Iberia into new year.
  14. I'd argue the same even if he were showing a Greeny high. I've seen many examples of these beasts out in FI but they are rarer than hens teeth in reality.
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