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Jason M

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  1. We see interesting signals every year but I'm sure our 6 month Autumn will start in October and run right through to the end of March as per usual.
  2. Yup, and with very dry ground in the SE, higher than average SSTs, 4 days of heat...…… Goodbye UK record I'd have thought.
  3. Yesterday was remarkable given the fact that it was essentially a one day event. Its getting easier to achieve these extreme temperatures and goodness knows what we will see if we end up with a 4-5 day repeat. Interesting from a weather perspective but deeply concerning taking a wider view of things.
  4. One of the problems with CFS is that it gets an idea and just runs with it. You see it in the winter months where one day its predicted a 1963 rehash and the next day its suggesting 1988. My reading of the current output is that its largely normal fare for the time of year. Drier and warmer the further SE you go which was ever thus. Don't rule out some heat in the south either as only takes subtle tweaks to get the temps up at this time of year.
  5. There is enough scatter in GEFS at 168 hours to suggest a couple of days a coldish weather is possible (looking across the outputs generally a two day bog standard event is the absolute best on offer IMHO). Overall, longer term the 12z set are very bullish on the existing pattern continuing out to mid month. It would be a very brave person who would bet on anything other than a very mild Feb (albeit you might get good odds!! ?).
  6. Whilst that big red blob sits over Iberia there is no chance of anything other than a fleeting sideswipe (sadly).
  7. Wowzer!! I hadn't realized we were in a cold spell ?. A bit of frost and fog used to be 'normal' for January. How times change!
  8. I'd agree with that. In fact I would be tempted to bank a day with just a light covering. I'm expecting to see zero snow here this year. It would only be the 2nd snowless winter in my lifetime albeit both will have occurred within a few short years if it comes to pass as I expect. I thought this winter would be awful from as far back as early December. I'm not claiming any superior knowledge here but simply just a gut feel based on many years experience (and pretty much all LRFs are saying the same thing). Any tiny bit of lingering doubt over global warming (and there wasn't much doubt!!) was dispelled by the ridiculous warm spell of last Feb. I fear this winter is a sign of things to come. Whilst it would be ludicrous to say no more cold snowy weather its getting harder to achieve and the changes seem to be happening really quickly now! Anyway, hopefully the weather will prove me wrong. Given Jan is pretty much a write off though, I wont be holding my breath for this winter. Just a case of seeing if we can squeeze one short sharp cold snap from somewhere.
  9. In fairness its usually the hope that is the enemy on here. The models have responded by removing any hope this season ? Looking through the models today still no sign of anything wintry for most of us. From looking through the 06 GEFS more chance of a Spanish plume than deep cold. It wouldn't take much to pull up some real warmth from the south with this set up.
  10. Just looked through the various model runs and to be honest they look awful. Its highly unlikely that we will get heights in the right place as the northern arm of the jet will simply not allow it with such a well organized PV. Love to be proved wrong but the very best I can see is a mid Lat high. That will allow for some good time lapse snow videos from Greece but that's about it!
  11. The problem comes from the temp only hitting those levels for a very short period in the day. Last Feb was bizarre but I fear its going to become the new normal. Don't bet against a repeat this year given that were looking at high pressure being prevalent over Iberia. If this persists into Feb then all bets are off.
  12. Blizzards of rain away from high ground sadly. 850 values of around -4c on a PM flow won't deliver much for most. This type of chart can be so misleading ? Pennines might do OK though under this.
  13. This shortwave issue is the original 'chicken and egg'? My take is that these small features only 'seem to thwart' snowmaggeden. The reality is that the atmosphere simply isn't conducive and that's why the shortwave exists. Equally the famous 'trigger low' forms because the atmosphere is conducive and the low forms as the mechanism by which the atmosphere brings about its desired state. Whatever people believe though, its clear that both the egg and the chicken are more likely to end up barbequed than frozen over the next few weeks ?
  14. With pressure forecast to be high across Iberia any short term modelling differences of particular features won't make a jot of difference to what most people on here want. Once the models start showing orange and red colours in that part of the world were on a one way ticket to Mildville. If its any consolation were in good company for a green Xmas (below from BBC website) Moscow 3c Cloudy Helsinki 4c Drizzle Boston (US) 6C Sunny Tromso (Norway) 2c Drizzle For balance Oslo is sunny at 0C GEFS have strong signal for heights to our south for the next couple of weeks.
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