Cumulonimbus Tower
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Posts posted by Cumulonimbus Tower
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GEM seems to be the only model going for height rises to our north in FI tonight, looks nice, with GFS considering it for a short while. Lets hope the GEM has suddenly taken up a role as super model extraordinaire, blitzing the others into a frozen submission....
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Ultimately the strength of a mature stratospheric vortex will ultimately overwhelm any tropospheric high latitude blocking. The vortex during winter can weaken from tropospheric wave activity that rides up to the top of the stratosphere and will weaken and warm the stratosphere from the top down. This may or may not propagate down to the troposphere.
However, there is also a scenario that can occur in early winter, before the strong upper stratospheric vortex is 'felt' at the troposphere, where wave breaks from anticyclones such as a Greenland high can be strong enough to disrupt the lower stratosphere and create a split from the bottom up. This can lead to the type of scenario that the ECM is showing tonight. If the wave activity is not strong enough then the lower stratospheric vortex is not disrupted or split sufficiently and any block will not form or is quickly overwhelmed - more in line with the GFS 18Z output.
Perfectly weighted, nice one, thanks!
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It's not new, but it is the nirvana wave break and can occur prior to the upper strat vortex intensification reaching the trop. Tony and I have been waiting to see of this would occur, as there was a small chance this November and because of this chance had not released an early winter forecast preliminary. I had pretty much ruled it out last weekend though......still........
Sorry Chionomaniac, whilst things are quiet, and if you have time, is there any chance you could put some of your posts into lay person speak, just so we can get a handle on what people are hoping for and what in your opinion might be spoilers? I understand the depth of atmosphere etc. but not quite how this relates to nest weekend and what might or might not happen.... Think of higher GCSE or lower A level meteorology terms
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A slightly, urm, different look at the same; https://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=2366&category=Environment
(Don't shoot the messenger
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I love watching these webcam streams. I can't wait until this evening when it makes landfall. I hope that everyone makes it out ok though I know many won't. I wish every bit of luck for those people.
I usually enjoy watching these events unfold too however that's quite often making landfall over a rich country in the USA. Even Cuba etc. are well drilled in storm protection. What's concerning at the moment is the impact of this storm on a poorer country with poverty stricken residents without access to the latest shelters, storm proof buildings, medical care etc. It could be catastrophic for some in this instance.
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The models seem to have come to a 'litmus test' point of autumn, in that it's been so benign and now the first signs of a change to some 'back endish' weather are appearing in the middle distance. The 06z certainly looked to be heading the way of the coldies as opposed to the 00z which looked to be flat and modern winterish
. I realise that patterns shift over autumn/winter but it feels like we are about to get the first real indicator of what all the related factors (El nino, solar decline, cold Atlantic etc) will deliver when added together in the real world; flat muck or meridional mix -
Hi, I saw a spectacular green fireball last night. About 1.29am to the west of Hebden Bridge. I thought it was a firework at first it was so bright in the night sky. Lasted a few seconds before fading. I went on twitter and found several other people who saw it from as far apart as Manchester, Warrington and Belfast. Also got reports of sightings around the same time from Argentina and the US but I imagine they were seperate incidents. NASA had said there was a very large asteroid passing earth yesterday so one has to wonder if smaller 'lumps' travel along with these big ones. It was the most amazing celestial experience of my life! Anyone else see it?
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Fully expect it to break up just before getting to me then build back up again after leaving cumbria, probably rain/sleet anyways.
Seems to be a little milder air into Aviemore and the north of Scotland at 18.00 with showers turning to rain 'allegedly'
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Good evening Pop Pickers. Looks like there 'could' be a more organised band of showers developing over the Scottish central belt on the most recent radar. Might be worth keeping an eye on if it develops further eh?
Interesting to read what robbo88 says about bands of showers too, could be promising for a further dusting perhaps?
OOps, soz, just noticed WH's post. Ditto.
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Hmmmm.... I had hoped the ECM would have been more bullish in supporting a scandi HP tonight as most of the other models have tended this way, even including the half decent looking UKMET after its earlier 'mid Atlantic blob' approach however from a cold perspective I'm a little disappointed with it , so yes, beer is definitely the order of the day
Mind you, it looks a colder solution when compared to the ECM 00 offering
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you can see the troughs on the infra red out to sea and in lee of high ground on here. The showers pep up when the air meets coasts or hills etc. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/map/#?map=SatelliteIRAndRADAR&zoom=6&lon=-3.16&lat=54.08&fcTime=1421406900
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It does look like a trough starting to push in from the Irish sea now. Might be slightly warmer around it but if you had snow today i'd say you will end up with a dusting by morning, even if it does turn to rain for a while..... Has the wind swung more westerly than northwesterly and picked up a little anywhere?
You must have some altitude, temperature up to 2.8c here with sleet.
Andywhat was it earlier?
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Ey up y'all. Been watching the showers come in off the Irish sea all eve, without a great deal of luck here. However, i notice that the wind is starting to veer back to a west of northwest flow just now. I think this might be a sign of a trough coming through the Irish sea and onshore in the next hour or two. Could be wrong but i noticed EURO4 thinks we should see some troughing by 6 am so perhaps theres hope of some snow in the next few hours?
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It's ok, I overreacted to your comment. Yes I agree it's an interesting spell coming up for those of us seeking something seasonal. :-)
Nice one chaps. great to see some respect in here.
Having watched the charts for week after week of mush i do feel that something a little special may happen before month out. from memory, once toppler after toppler sets up it only takes a short while for one of them to topple into scandi and away we go. Anyways..... I would just urge members to watch the dark colors lift out of Greenland and Eastern US and not focus too much on MJO, AO, NAO etc, etc. Just enjoy it and listen to the experts input for guidance. Paul, please remove my badge of honor, after eight years or so, it seems excessive, as it was my little boy who opened a second account,. Thanks
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Spending the weekend camping at (and playing at) a festival in the Ribble valley this weekend with 2 smallish kids and my partner. Just wondering how bad this storm system is going to be there? It looks to me like it will be fairly wet from mid morning to late afternoon on Sat with rain at 30mm per hour for a short time (is this about right?) but i guess if its dry either side it might not make too much difference? Thoughts please?? Thanks
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Judging by the mood in here tonight i'd have thought there was a blowtorch Bartlett showing up and everything was lost... Looking at the latest from Exeter i'd say all to play for personally.
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Just been up the tops after school. Sleet and Hail down in the valley but thick snow on the top. Hebden Bridge to Keighley road was virtually blocked with busses and cars playing silly b****** and not letting each other pass. Hope theres a bit more to come this eve.....
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I think what we are seeing from the models at the moment is a very finely balanced position where the BI is of the boundary between the colder air to the East and the relatively milder stuff coming in off the Atlantic. That said, some of the Polar Maritime air approaching from the west looks cold enough for winteryness at times over elevated areas. I think the models will keep correcting back and forth and we shall not really know the outcome until it happens. I would be very surprised though if some areas don't see a bit of snow from the end of next weekend onward. There is always the chance that it will all be corrected West again leaving most in the colder air but only time will tell. I'm fairly intrigued at the moment tbh. and aint letting my mood go up and down with every run. Have some faith in the pattern you see!
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Cold at 168hrs, with rain/snow showers in the north. Under clear skies at night, places in the south likely to see temps below -3C/-4C:
The BI seems to be getting squeezed from the NW and from the NE by 15 850hPa air around that timeframe too. You get the feeling that something has to give and we will get some winteryness from one side or'tother. My feeling is that this cold spell isn't quite as dead as it seemed yesterday......
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The reason this has gone pearshaped is its called "the curse of telling your friends and family a cold, snowy spell of weather is on its way". As soon as I do this the models flip!!
Or even worse, posting on Facebook.
Looks like we'll have to wait until we see the effects of any further warming to propergate through to the model output. Could be nearer the month end i am led to believe?
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@ Beng 144 Charts 65%
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0
If you want to see what the curvature of the lines we need to see @ 144 when the front approaches its at 168 just to the East of the UK ( in the north sea) lines bending back SE into the continent.
It would be nice to salvage something like the ECM 00z from this with continued jet flow NW SE allowing the Scandi high to remain in situ...
S
Is the jet just digging too far south on much of the 12z output?
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I think gfs is what happens when the jet takes a dive to North Africa! It seems that the models have picked up a new signal overnight, which could be the jet dropping further south than previously thought. Seems that there is nothing left to prop the Scandi High or Med Low up with the pressure of the jet removed.
Whatever it is, I think they all react to it in slightly different ways and the GFS is just one very extreme way to react. I'd give them 24 hours to settle down a bit and see where were are left then. From experience It might not turn out as bad as it currently seems.
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The 'odd 1000 miles' is critical in this situation.....it will mean the difference between a frigid easterly and mild w'lys when all said and done. That's how fine the margins are at present.
I realise that but i'm talking about the general evolution in this instance.
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So, after an eternal amount of huffing and puffing the GFS finally advects some cold uppers west out of Europe for around 6 hours before the whole lot crashes and burns again. It's my opinion that when gfs gets into the low res part of the run it can't handle the setup properly so goes off the rails somewhat.
I also can't help feeling that the sort of evolution that the GFS is showing today (up to around t200) might just be the final outcome (or a take on it anyway) m sure it will have subtle differences with heights east/west/north/south by the odd 1000 miles but the general evolution looks about right to me.....
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted