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Everything posted by Brocken Spectre
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That's what I think, it's the more likely of the two possibilities. The lead up to the cold spell was mild, with temps going to almost 13c Friday, that with waterlogged ground, I just think that ground temps are a degree or two above air temps. I have an accurate Davis weather station and have most add ons and sensors except a ground temperature sensor, otherwise I could confirm.
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This is the explanation of melting snow in below freezing temperatures: Even when the air temperature is below freezing snow can melt on the ground due to heat from the ground (ground temperature may be higher that air temperature). Also, snow can disappear due to sublimation. In this case, due to low humidity and/or low air pressure, it turns from a solid state directly to a gas without going through the liquid state.
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We can suffer from being in the shadow of Bluebell Hill here sometimes down here in the valley (Halling) from Easterlies or North Easterlies. The Downs take some of the potency out of convective showers, however we may well do well out of the main band early on Sunday, we're only just inside that Amber Warning here. Fingers crossed
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New MET warning looks a slight downgrade with wording of over 100m, I'm sure the other warning didn't have that. Issued: 10:31 (UTC) on Sat 23 Jan 2021 An area of rain, sleet and snow will move into southeast England from the west on Sunday morning, lingering here for much of the day before gradually clearing Sunday night. 1-3 cm of snow is possible in places, mainly above 100 m, with icy stretches forming as this arrives - some persisting during the day or reforming as the precipitation clears during the evening. Previous wording: "Mainly 1-3 cm of snow accumulation for most parts, but possibly 5-10 cm over 100 m with a small possibility of 10-15 cm over high ground for example on "
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Seems that North Kent/Medway may luck out a little compared to other areas say, Berks/Surrey/West and South London, where the pivot point is. Meteo's precip' modelling seems to show a snow to rain to snow event in the Medway area, which has probably something to do with mixing out with some warmer Thames Estuary temps as it passes over the North Downs and the band didn't look as wide in this area. However with all snow events here in the South East nothing is nailed until the day and hour it arrives! Fingers crossed snow lovers.
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Brocken Spectre replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I eluded to the 2018 SSW yesterday. GFS had the BFTE modelled (to a fashion) from about 288hrs, it always seemed to be showing. I don't remember it flip flopping too much, and don't recall seeing the temperatures at 240+ being modelled at norms (like the GFS in the last few runs) In my very unprofessional opinion...I'm not holding my breath on this one -
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Brocken Spectre replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not great with finding the right charts, but has anyone got todays version of this, thinks its about 288hrs. It was the SSW of 2018 and about the same timeframe before that crazy 7/10 days. Wondering if there was any similarities?? Feb 2018 -
Model output discussion - Into 2021
Brocken Spectre replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This makes a good read whilst waiting for the next runs. The Model Thread and the run up to TBFTE after the 2018 SSW event. It's interesting to see how the models handled it and the posters!! Model forum post 2018 SSW -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Brocken Spectre replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
I live under Bluebell Hill Paul, it's snowing down to Sea Level here at the mo and starting to stick. B Hill is a mess, closed, traffic stranded!! -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Brocken Spectre replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
More of a Winter full of promise for many, and failed to deliver for some. The long term was always 2 weeks from an Easterly...ever since late November. Oh well.. you just never know -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Brocken Spectre replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Might be snowing in Maidstone...meanwhile 8 miles away in the Medway Gap....it's doing nowt -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Brocken Spectre replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Kent peeps: Run the radar https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar and watch the pivot off the Channel and building in to Kent! -
Ours has opened for the first time this week...pathetic! It's dangerous out there! FREEZING RAIN falling in Medway Valley
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Went outside here in the Medway valley, temp is +0.7 with a DP -3.6. I'm sure the very fine snow felt like drizzle and in fact the car had water teeny droplets on the rear. Sure ly can't rain/sleet/snizzle/slizzle with this temp/DP/humidity??
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Bluebell Hill messing with the showers and causing them to divert downslope towards Maidstone. Larkfeild to Rochester seem to be shielded.