Strider

Bit of a damp squib so far, nowhere near 2 weeks ago. Also seems to be melting despite freezing midday temps.

EURO4 has been bullish for some time for prospects for E Mids. All the apps and BBC downplaying it quite significantly. We shall see!

Good work, SSIB! Unlikely to come this far north but it's not over yet. Nice to see you still around Andy. Looks like your namesake Andy King is heading north on the M1 to us tonight!

Not too bad here in West Notts, about 2-4 cms so far. Scope for this to continue for some time yet!

Looking better for the West than East, definitely. Might just catch a reasonable amount on the western side of the East Midlands. Seems to have shifted a bit further south too.

These are definitely the most promising charts we have seen at this time of year since 2010 - could we be set for a sensational start to winter 17/18? GFS06z op showing the block slightly further north, leading to a trough undercutting from the east.

Statistically it's more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas I believe. Welcome become, although I see you've moved now

You could always move to the Peak District SSIB! Probably didn't help that the METO were ramping up yesterday whilst the models were quietly downgrading it

Appalling again for Nottingham, not even a sugar coating! EURO4 played a blinder again, called the downgrade quite early on.

Massive downgrades on EURO4 12z for east mids, showing a mostly rain event now

Current projections show it hitting the E Mids Derby/Nottingham just after 1900

EURO4 6z shows heavy snow for a time in the E Mids, but little accumulation. It seems to me that the conditions are primed for accumulation with a dry ground, low enough DP and ppn heavy. Let's see if it's right! I wonder if they will consider splitting this thread into W Mids/E Mids as that could cause some frustration later on.

Despite the fact it's very similar to the 00z mean ensemble as others have pointed out. Are they (plus the GFS) all unrealistic too? Plus the METO... Btw, I am not trying to make a personal attack here. I just think after a winter of grave disappointment people need to be realistic about what they are seeing. If you check the model thread back in December you'll see plenty of posts convinced that bitter cold is just around the corner and the models have got it wrong...

So in other words it loses the plot precisely where it does what you don't want it to do? It seems to be on a bit of a knife edge hence the constant flip flopping of the OPs. The GFS ensemble mean has a chilly period for a couple of days at the end of the month but nothing spectacular, which seems to be the form horse for me. A slider into central Europe followed by a reassertion from the Atlantic/Azores

Does anyone have a link to the MJO? Thanks