Radiosonde

Operational was big FI outlier. GFS Ensembles London 12z

Thanks Yes the Met Office have regularly issued orange advisories for "Widespread icy roads" Tonight will be no different. Do you think the lack of warnings is due to the intensity of the precipitation moving south? In my opinion, I think the Met Office are expecting the rain/sleet/snow to peter out as it moves into the midlands - giving a dusting of snow at best. Whether they are right or not is another matter! As I posted earlier, the 6z NAE chart shows the snow over central areas being pretty heavy - certainly enough for more than a dusting in some parts of the midlands. Perhaps the east midlands will fare best. Surprised the N. Mids have been excluded though!

I expect the warnings to include the midlands later, especially the north midlands. Look at this 6z NAE chart: The potential is there for falls of several cm, as much as 20cm over the highest hills (basically the tops of the Pennines, Peaks and Moors) I mentioned in the cold discussion thread that it might be due to the Met Office thinking the midlands might escape with just a dusting, not enough to warrant a warning. Best stay tuned to forecasts and the MetO website - I for one am expecting the N Mids (at least) to be included in the warning area. The BBC forecast I saw last night showed parts of the Midlands affected by the snow pushing southwards tonight.

Really unsure myself as well! I expect the warnings to include the midlands later, especially the north midlands. Look at this 6z NAE chart: The potential is there for falls of several cm, as much as 20cm over the highest hills (basically the tops of the Pennines, Peaks and Moors) I mentioned in the cold discussion thread that it might be due to the Met Office thinking the midlands might escape with just a dusting, not enough to warrant a warning. Best stay tuned to forecasts and the MetO website - I for one am expecting the N Mids to be included in the warning area.

6z NAE begs to differ wrt the precipitation for tonight: 06-12 precip/type 12-18 precip/type 18-24 precip/type I would expect the midlands to be included in the warnings later on today - if things go according to plan. Especially the north Midlands. I'm honestly baffled why they are not in the warnings now though - unless it has something to do with snow depths. I wonder how many cm's of snow requires a warning/advisory for the MetO? Perhaps just a dusting for areas not in the advisory then?

Yes indeed, LP well to the south leaving us with a bitterly cold Friday and Saturday under a very slack flow. GFS 06z predicting maximums of -2 to -4 inland for England, even colder further north where snow cover could mean temps are even lower than the GFS is suggesting in some places - remarkable! Temps Friday 12:00 - gfs 6z Temps Friday 18:00 - gfs 6z Temps Saturday 12:00 - gfs 6z Temps Saturday 18:00 - gfs 6z Glacier's post is very interesting indeed - the models did hint at a mid-month breakdown but it looks increasingly likely we will see the cold last comfortably into the third week of January (and beyond??). Just imagine the CET figure we could achieve!