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in the vale

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Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Dead Centre of the Vale of Clwyd
  • Interests
    My Wunderground page: http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWALESLL7
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold Sancerre.

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  1. Hi guys/gals, I know it's not that straightforward, given the combination of runs that go to make up the local forecast, but it would be useful to somehow see when it was last updated. It looks like if I hit the '16 Day Extra Detail' button, and it refreshes, that may tell me that the forecast has updated, but it's difficult to be certain how up to date the forecast actually is. Thanks.
  2. Thanks reef - I'll have a look into this when I get some time to spare.
  3. Hi reef, do you have a schematic or pics of your custom FARS setup?
  4. Do you use weather software on your PC or do you use your console as a standalone device? You should be able to retrieve the data if you use a PC, but I have no idea if you don't. Even if you have the optional data logger I doubt the data goes back that far. Sorry.
  5. GFS shows snow for an hour or two this evening for the North - other models vary. Very uncertain where the northern extent is.
  6. I'm glad it's just not me thinking this. Many folk have concluded that the surface effect of the December SSW event is behind us or that the cards fell wrong this time. I do not believe it has really started. The type and length of the event have few analogues so most models have really struggled with the 'work in progress' state of the atmosphere. Signs seem to be emerging that the cold EC46 view a couple of weeks ago may have been correct, albeit delayed like all other models. There'll be valuable learning available from this. Genuinely fascinating times, unique in my utterly unreliable recollection of weather stuff.
  7. I know it's the CFS, but this is a strong -NAO / Greenland blocking signal for week 3.
  8. There are plenty of words written about DSWs, I certainly don't distrust the science, but there will be very few analogues that have been built into the models - hence the model confusion. Agree with you about the outcome though!
  9. There are very few composite analogues available for DSWs; even SSWs only have a small number to factor into their physics. All the more reason to distrust lower level/surface NWP currently.
  10. This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook. I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game.
  11. I have just had a repair done to my roof and the roofer managed to rip the cable in half! I am assuming this is not a simple two-wire cable, but does anyone know for certain?
  12. I live about 7 miles from Ruthin - proper snow in the Vale again!
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