lukemc

Yes I agree that the solar minimum could bring some colder Januaries - but my question is if snow is becoming rarer as a result of climate change then why did we get years like 2010 and 2013 in the first place - and even though this January has not been notable in the UK parts of coastal Spain have had their heaviest snowfall for nearly 100 years so in some respects that is a once in a lifetime event and it just proves that even with a warming climate extreme cold events are possible. It is however ironic that parts of coastal Spain have had more snow this winter than us in the NW of England - I wonder how much does that happen? Snow in areas that are normally much milder than the UK in the winter lol. Luke

Are you sure it is pure rain looks like wet snow and hail to me? Luke

So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.? Didn't people say this in 2010 - I remember terms like dry as a bone and features popped up? Luke

Hi Chris, Luke here again it is looking interesting for the next week ahead do you think we will see any snow at our location reading the MOD thread some were saying mostly dry but can't snow or precipitation pop up at short notice in this situation troughs etc? Luke

I think Ian Brown asked the same question a few years back and then 2009-10, December 2010 and 2013 all came along so if those cold months can prove that we can get a cold CET month again then surely those months prove that we certainly can do it again. Look, since 2008 we not only did it again once, we did it again at least 3 times so I am sure we will - people go on about climate change and all that but even taking into account AGW etc. our lifetimes are only a tiny amount of time in the climatological history of the planet. If Ian Brown was right when he said that - must have been about 2007 or so and if it were impossible how an earth did we get 3 yes THREE very cold months since then LOL? I am sure within the lifetimes of most of us on here, we will get not only another cold CET month of sub 3 CET, we will get a few and probably a winter that will be colder than 2009/10 - maybe even of 1963 type severity - we are likely to go though a few low solar minima within our lifetimes. What those recent winters have shown is that it is still possible to get cold winters even with a warming climate - also look at North America over the last few years too not just Europe. Luke

As I know, aircraft contrails normally form above about 25000 feet or snow, but watching the aircraft over my house last Friday (12th February) I was surprised to see persistent contrails forming at an altitude as low as 12000 feet - a Flybe Dash 8 flying from Manchester to the IOM was contrailling persistently at 15000 feet (FL150). I have read that for contrails to form the air temperature has to be around -25C or so but 10000feet or so corresponds to the 850HpA level and even though we had cold upper air around last Friday it would not the temps at 10000 feet-15000 feet be no less than about -8C or so? So can anyone explain why I saw contrails at pretty low altitude last Friday? I know humidity is also involved so maybe something to do with the humidity of the air - I might expect a contrail forming at 10K feet when we are under an airmass with -25C 850s or below but why so low trail level on Friday 11th? Luke

Crewe Cold, Well wouldn't you count Boxing Day 2014 in that category too? which I would class as a toppler scenario and that brought snow on the ground here in Liverpool upper temps were not amazing btw so it can happen - we also had transitional lying snow in Liverpool from a NW'ly last year in January I can recall so as least as far as my area is concerned that is not correct they can still deliver if the parameters are right. It can also depend on the intensity and amount of precipitation you get to bring evaporative cooling increasing the risk of snow at low levels. EDIT - also remember we got snow from a transitional NW'ly again in December 2011. It might have been different in Crewe but that was for my location in Liverpool not far from the Irish Sea coast even though snow is infrequent at our location it goes to show it is not impossible of course - and the examples above are of toppler type events not even including the likes of 2010. Luke

Interesting outlook I am going to the Peak District on Sunday for 2 night staying in Glossop just asking if I have a chance of seeing snow on current projections? And do I have a chance of seeing something at home in Liverpool beforehand (sorry for the slightly off topic post - decided to post in here as it is quiet for the time of day) Luke

Just letting you know I am going to Glossop and the Peak District this Sunday what chance do I have of seeing snow either falling or on the ground it will be nice to get some Luke

Even though I find reading the model thread depressing most of the time when there is a poor outlook for coldies, I do however find reading what Ian Brown has to say (masquerading as Shropshire) over on TWO funny and entertaining at times - as we all know he is legendry for the modern wnter theory - you can tell he his Ian Brown by how often he uses the world "zonal" in his posts! Also NEB who occasionally posts on here can be funny in some ways as his posts always to be about cold zonality (or complaining about the lack of it) most of his posts mention January 1984 an interesting agenda if you ask me. Luke

It will be interesting to look at the reasons why this winter has been so mild and will be interesting to know you opinions on here would you say it is a side effect of the Super El Nino or a very cold stratosphere giving rise to a very strong polar vortex, the westerly QBO or a combination of all these factors coming together to result in this. And is it the case that strong el ninos normally result in mild winters for NW Europe? But in some ways we are not alone - despite the big snowstorm, most of the NE US have had a pretty mild winter with a very mild December. I also wonder why GP has not been posting for a while do you think he has other commitments it would be interesting to here his thoughts Luke

I think that the stratospheric warming could still be the wild card in all of this - I would not be surprised to see better charts from a cold perspective in the next few days as we still do not know what the effect of this stratospheric warming will be remember it can take some time for the implications to come to fruition. Yes it is the 4th February today and we are still looking at mediocre outputs but with uncertainties regarding the stratosphere and MJO I think it is too early to write off winter yet - remember we can still have conditions conductive to snow in March and even April. Luke

What odds do we have of this winter being the mildest winter on record at the moment? I also need to make a point that since I have been on this forum in the winter sometimes I feel indoctrinated by the coldie club in the winter it is like I am brainwashed to like cold and snow in the winter and nothing else - I am sure that other people on this forum have a similar experience. If I take a break from the forums, I am not as bothered to whether it is cold or snows. Yes reading the MOD thread can be exciting at times, but it can also be depressing like it is at present - does anyone actually find the process of reading the model thread depressing? - e.g. look at the moment very little posts I could say boring too. But on a better note I would like to have a reasonable shot at snow soon - what are the chances of us getting improvents in the charts in the near future as it is depressing going into the MOD thread day after day and reading things like "poor output for coldies again". I notice a pattern in the model thread sometimes, there are some posters that only seem to post when poor output for coldies appears but there are some excellent posters in the thread too, my favorites are the like of Nick Sussex, Bluearmy, Tamara etc. - who at least when the output does not go in the cold lovers favour, they do a great job of explaining why. Luke

Your right, Glossop is where were are booked a bit surprised with no travelogues in the national park area maybe de to national park planning restrictions I wonder?

Just letting you know I am going to stay in the Peak District for a short break for 3 nights on 13th February - what do yo think of the chance of getting winteriness based on forecast for that time - being high ground should be better than Liverpool do you think we are still on for a cold snap around that time? Luke