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lukemc

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  1. Yes I agree that the solar minimum could bring some colder Januaries - but my question is if snow is becoming rarer as a result of climate change then why did we get years like 2010 and 2013 in the first place - and even though this January has not been notable in the UK parts of coastal Spain have had their heaviest snowfall for nearly 100 years so in some respects that is a once in a lifetime event and it just proves that even with a warming climate extreme cold events are possible. It is however ironic that parts of coastal Spain have had more snow this winter than us in the NW of England - I wonder how much does that happen? Snow in areas that are normally much milder than the UK in the winter lol. Luke
  2. Hi Nick,

    Happy New Year to you! Just asking why does it seem to be so difficult to get cold and snow to our part of the world even when we get a fantastic output like Thursday's run - and why even when we have these expensive super computers which at least partly involve millions in taxpayers money in both the likes of the UK and the USA do we get outputs like that that then go pear shaped at that point? Even in my home location, Liverpool which is not far from the coast we normally expect snow at least once a year - is it that these models often overestimate heights/pressure over the Freeland area before correcting back? You might have heared of something called Moore's law which means that computing power is supposed to double every two years if that is the case why are these models not getting more accurate later out? And do you think I will see snow on the ground this winter - even in the so called christmas pudding in the 90s/2000s we did not very often go more than 3 years without seeing snow on the ground on average!

     

    Luke

  3. Hi Nick,

    Luke here again just decided to contact you on your feed - I am getting nervous about this referendum now as I am worried about a Leave vote and what its implications may be last poll put Remain 1 point ahead which some say is better for leave.  Most elections I am not too bothered about how they go but this one could have massive implications so I am concerned about the possibility of a Leave vote.  E.g. I like aviation/planes and I am worried about the consequences for that industry particularly in the UK.  Which way do you see the vote going at this juncture? And when will we have a good idea of which way it has gone as I a) don't want to stay up to late and b) will be nervous about switching on the TV/radio in the morning

    Best regards,

     

    Luke

     

  4. Are you sure it is pure rain looks like wet snow and hail to me? Luke
  5. I think some on here would like to live here Yakutsk in Russia (Siberia) coldest inhabited place on earth.  Ice fog at -47C looks cool

     

    1. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      Sod that those siberians are hardy creatures :D

    2. IanR

      IanR

      not me, they can keep their cold:cold:

  6. So going by this evening's output which category would most of you put this cold spell in I wonder,if the ecm upgrades further we could be calling it a severe cold outbreak!but as it stands where would you put it I wonder.....chilly/cold/rather cold/very cold/or bitter.? Didn't people say this in 2010 - I remember terms like dry as a bone and features popped up? Luke
  7. Hi Chris, Luke here again it is looking interesting for the next week ahead do you think we will see any snow at our location reading the MOD thread some were saying mostly dry but can't snow or precipitation pop up at short notice in this situation troughs etc? Luke
  8. Hi Chris,

     

    Just a thought - I have just replied to a post from a guy who is questioning if we can get very cold months again after a very mild winter - but I told him that we have had a few very cold months since 2010.  I am just asking do you think we will see a few severe winters within our lifetime? - maybe a winter even approaching 1963 or 1947 severity or at least colder than 2009-10? IMO if we did it in 2010 (twice!), and 2013 we can sure do it again - don't know where he is coming from?

    Luke

     

    1. Chris.R

      Chris.R

      Hi, I don't see why not. We seem to be getting an increased frequency of extremes,  both hot and cold, wet and dry ETC so I would say that the likelihood of a winter like those you mention happening   again before long is increasing.   Nobody can really say for sure though, as nature is chaotic. I do give some credence to the theory that   Nature balances out, something which you may have heard  talked about on this forum recently. I wouldn't be surprised if the next six months saw a predominance of continental air flows over the uk  with negative  anomalies in precipitation  and also  temperature, at least in March.

  9. I think Ian Brown asked the same question a few years back and then 2009-10, December 2010 and 2013 all came along so if those cold months can prove that we can get a cold CET month again then surely those months prove that we certainly can do it again. Look, since 2008 we not only did it again once, we did it again at least 3 times so I am sure we will - people go on about climate change and all that but even taking into account AGW etc. our lifetimes are only a tiny amount of time in the climatological history of the planet. If Ian Brown was right when he said that - must have been about 2007 or so and if it were impossible how an earth did we get 3 yes THREE very cold months since then LOL? I am sure within the lifetimes of most of us on here, we will get not only another cold CET month of sub 3 CET, we will get a few and probably a winter that will be colder than 2009/10 - maybe even of 1963 type severity - we are likely to go though a few low solar minima within our lifetimes. What those recent winters have shown is that it is still possible to get cold winters even with a warming climate - also look at North America over the last few years too not just Europe. Luke
  10. Hi Chris,

     

    Thanks for your reply in the MOD thread - interesting about our area and snow and saying that things have not been lucky for us this winter re: evaporative cooling etc. Just asking if with more blocking a possibility over the next couple of weeks or fortunes could change? How about the possible event on Sunday/Monday I have heard heavy PPN mentioned so a possibility we could see snow then?

    Luke 

    1. Chris.R

      Chris.R

      I think in the next two weeks if we can get any of the following scenarios then  we could see quite a lot of snow. 

       Best case: a potent north-westerly with 850s below -10 producing snow shower streamers  helped by  embedded troughs in the flow.  This would potentially deliver up to a foot of snow,  your holy grail 2010 set up.  Only negative, the sun is strong now  so snow might not stick around too long. We'd need  A massive Atlantic/Greenlund high for that . 

       Secondly a northerly straight from the Arctic. This would bring showers down  the coast and would give us a few CMs. Again 850s would need to be below -10, maybe -9 would do.  The real fun here is if a polar low gets  brought down the Irish sea. That would be epic, think of  that night in 2010 but over a shorter duration and probably with thunder and storm force winds.

       Storm force winds.

      I will add to this post in a minute,  just want to get this out. 

    2. Chris.R

      Chris.R

      Ok I can't edit that so here's another post.

       I can't edit that so here's another post. 

        Third scenario: A slider low  undercutting dry cold continental air.  I love these. They can bring a good few inches of snow. 18/01/13  was a great one. Also a few days in March 2006 and March 2013..  These can be good even into April.  We need a block over  Scandinavia and/or to the north for these. 

    3. Chris.R

      Chris.R

      Bits keep repeating in my posts, don't know what's going on their lol. 

      Anyway 4th scenario: Short-lived repeating north-westerlies. Like this coming Sunday. These are great for convection fans like myself as they bring often potent cells with showers of hail and sometimes a lot of lightning. We would need a trough or other catalyst for snow though. This Sunday, 850s are only around -7 so I expect a mild start to the day before the cold front passes establishing the north-westerly. Then into Monday, frequent showers of hail, graupel, sleet and some thunder. If we can get an intense streamer or trough then snow is quite possible. This winter I have found that the laps rates have been quite predictable in north-westerlies. If you take the 850 temp and add 10°C then that should give you a guide for the temp at the surface, making adjustments based on time of day. Keep an eye on the wind direction as this will affect the frequency of showers. Also the dew points; they need to be below 0°C for snow in most cases. 

      Hope this is useful. I'm passionate about the weather around here. 

  11. As I know, aircraft contrails normally form above about 25000 feet or snow, but watching the aircraft over my house last Friday (12th February) I was surprised to see persistent contrails forming at an altitude as low as 12000 feet - a Flybe Dash 8 flying from Manchester to the IOM was contrailling persistently at 15000 feet (FL150). I have read that for contrails to form the air temperature has to be around -25C or so but 10000feet or so corresponds to the 850HpA level and even though we had cold upper air around last Friday it would not the temps at 10000 feet-15000 feet be no less than about -8C or so? So can anyone explain why I saw contrails at pretty low altitude last Friday? I know humidity is also involved so maybe something to do with the humidity of the air - I might expect a contrail forming at 10K feet when we are under an airmass with -25C 850s or below but why so low trail level on Friday 11th? Luke
  12. Crewe Cold, Well wouldn't you count Boxing Day 2014 in that category too? which I would class as a toppler scenario and that brought snow on the ground here in Liverpool upper temps were not amazing btw so it can happen - we also had transitional lying snow in Liverpool from a NW'ly last year in January I can recall so as least as far as my area is concerned that is not correct they can still deliver if the parameters are right. It can also depend on the intensity and amount of precipitation you get to bring evaporative cooling increasing the risk of snow at low levels. EDIT - also remember we got snow from a transitional NW'ly again in December 2011. It might have been different in Crewe but that was for my location in Liverpool not far from the Irish Sea coast even though snow is infrequent at our location it goes to show it is not impossible of course - and the examples above are of toppler type events not even including the likes of 2010. Luke
  13. Interesting outlook I am going to the Peak District on Sunday for 2 night staying in Glossop just asking if I have a chance of seeing snow on current projections? And do I have a chance of seeing something at home in Liverpool beforehand (sorry for the slightly off topic post - decided to post in here as it is quiet for the time of day) Luke
  14. Just letting you know I am going to Glossop and the Peak District this Sunday what chance do I have of seeing snow either falling or on the ground it will be nice to get some Luke
  15. Hello again NS,

     

    Just asking how is it looking for my trip to the Peak District now do you think I will see snow I am going on Sunday

     

    Luke

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