chris78

I'd say the objections to warnings are more evidence of a nannying attitude, a sort of infantalisation of the public. Warnings come with caveats and likelihood attached, that leaves mature rational adults with the information needed to make plans or change plans if they wish to.

Unheard of for Preston is this! The meto app (I know I know) is saying this stays heavy for hours but soon turns to rain, not even sleet, rain! Is that a good shout from them? Will the lying snow keep downs temps enough to keep it snow?

I'm no expert on the charts, but I have been coming here for around 15 years. In that time there have been 2 what you might call historic cold spells, 2010 2018. There has been maybe 10 times the models have suggested similar spells only for them not to happen. During the build up to those non events, anyone who is cautious gets criticised.

You know it will be right though!

I think that is all right, lots of problems to overcome and some problems that probably won't ever be. The long and short is we need to use care less. For all the freedoms they give us, and they clearly do, they also cause so many problems, cluttering up our streets, effecting the easy we plan and build homes, limiting how and where children play, etc.

Spot on, like I said yesterday, forecaster havent got anything wrong, they have given the best possible forecast with the tools available. Perhaps instead of criticising the people who complain should devout their lives to moving the science forward?

Every forecaster I have seen last few days has said how hard it is to forecast this set up. So I think of it less as the met o getting it wrong and more that we still dont have the tools/science to make very accurate predictions in this sort of set up.

It is very annoying, but just the way it is, a numbers game, there are more of them and naturally they talk about what the models say for their back yard. It would be nice to think poeople would be very balanced and neutral in their comments, but why should they really, they aren't providing a service.

I know that, my point is, by that point lots of people don't want it, so a good run would be a mild run, for many, possibly a minority, but a significant one.

Hi all, a request from a lurker. Can you specify what you mean by a run being better, or more favourable etc. I think from Nov to Feb it's probably pretty clear that the vast majority are looking for cold. But by mid March it's the last thing a lot of us want, so 'better' or 'upgrade', doesn't really mean anything.

HI All, particulrly our Cumbrian friends! I have 5 nights, from sturday booked camping in the lakes. We arent fair weather campers and dont really mid a bit of wind and rain.....but....looking at the text and graphics forecast it doesnt look good at all. Now I know it wont be great, but those of you who live there, looking at the forescast from tomorrow onwards, how bad does that look? I.E do the forecasts tend to overplay the wind and rain, or would you be guesssing it will be as bad as it looks? Cheers Chris

To be fair you are only just in it.

Its a discussion board, I think we will carry on. Cheers

Everyone has a right to an opinion, but equally if that opinion is clearly nonsense others are entitled to treat it with the contempt i deserves. 74 mph at Hun airport, 70 mph widely in populated areas. 75 + is hurricane force. What the hell were you expecting from today? We dont live in hurricane alley, 70+ winds in populated areas is a huge event for this country. So yes express an opinion, but if it so clearly flies in the face of fact, expect ridicule.

These posts are always so transparent, the same happens with snow forecasts, people try to mask it as serious consideration of the met o or of the models or of the warning system, but we can all read between the lines, what those posts really mean is......I wanted to see trees falling down from my window and its not happening, boo hoo, poor me. Ho

Her concerns are justified, if I was a betting man I would say it won't be too bad in our region, but even if I'm right and we get away with it, her concerns are still justified, we dont need to wait until tomorrow to answer that.

Yellow probably normal to many people, but for certain sectors it's useful. I run volunteer teams, sometimes doing woodland work doing woodland work, with ash die back it doesn't take much to drop sime big branches. The yellow warning means be aware, so when one is issued, I'm aware and will have a back up job to do if it is too windy. I don't get angry with them if it isn't windy, especially as often if you look at the matrix it may say low or medium probability. The system works I think.

Interesting language there, something I have noticed when snow is forecast too.....a move to the north is a change, a move to the south is a correction, interesting.

Come on now, you seen more than happy to look at the models, comment in turn, get excited by them, when they show cold. When they don't show you want you can't tell people they should ignore them. You are right, we probably should ignore the models when the is so much uncertainty, but that's what the thread is.

But there was a need for anyone planning for Saturday. Now at the moment we (I work for a conservation charity) we have no volunteers, but normally we would have sturday volunteering, the advanced notice would give me time to make contingency plans, on the understanding that I may not need them as the event is unlikely or uncertain at least. A last minute warning does not afford me that time to come up with a contingency. Remember most on here see the warnings and think...great possible snow....thats not what they are there for, they exist to give me and others forewarning to plan for disruption. So here the reaction to a failed warning is...you bastards I was looking forward to that.....whereas my professional reaction is.....great my session can go ahead, but Im glad I was prepared.

Yesterdays warning though did say high level of uncertainty. Now, I can see the argument that people dont read or understand how the warning operate, so they should take that into account. Personally I am more than happy with being treated like an adult, in that they were saying....look there is a chance, although small that a disruptive event could happen, we are keeping it yellow as its very uncertain. I can then do what I want with that info, and keep an eye on things. I would hate them to reduce their warnings because they felt...well people dont really understand how all this works, they will take it as gospel, so best keep our mouths shut. That to me seems to be tailoring things to the lowest common denominator. For my location at least the warning have been spot on as the usually are.

A few flurries IS something to write home about in Soiuthport!

There has been some, a little dusting in places (tiny dusting) and light snow on my way to work this morning.

What a great post. Sometimes I might see a post like as hopecasting, but that was really well argued and I do think past experiences have to count for something. If I lived in the east of the region or anywhere away from the west coast I would be hopeful too

...and it is, we are discussing.....but you made a claim, I asked you to back it up, you havent, part of a discussion is providing evidence to back up claims.