PolarWarsaw

For whatever reason today, storms away from the extreme south west and wales, have no sustainability. Doesn’t set a promising tone for the rest of the week. For all of those crying ‘Midlands and NW again’ today, western facing coasts got the best of it all. Which is very odd compared to usual set ups. Let’s see what tomorrow brings, but today with all the parameters and forecasts, estofex on board etc, it’s been very poor.

If a popcorn storm is the best we can get with all of these parameters in place, then what a pathetic climate we live in. Total dud for 95% of the country today (and 50% of the storm warning zones) contrary to forecasts. Soon be September.

Main core of the storm is shifting well west of Walsall/Stafford/Rugeley. Unless it builds east they will get the scraps.

Couple of points. 1) Even if today's models are correct, which is highly unlikely considering day 10 performance, ENS sets flipping in 1 run and the general lack of atlantic weather that's been handed to us at day 10 this winter ever verifying. 2) Even if it does verify, we've had 2 march's in the last few years that have provided better than ANY OTHER winter month for decades here in the Midlands for snow and cold. 3) Mild weather isn't a problem. I've lost count of the amount of times I speak to my customers in mid February who tell me it's mild and spring is on it's way - only to see them 3 weeks later and get the usual 'I thought we'd finished with this' as they are wrapped up and March is very cold. 4) At least if the atlantic weather verifies, we actually get some weather. If it's not going to snow, then bring on rain and windstorms - I'm a weather fan, not a fan of endless dry, predominantly dull or sunny boring days. Last summer was HELL as a weather fan and I'm really hoping we have a very wert, very active and very thundery summer for entertainment value. It may 'feel' like it - but we can get weather cold enough for accumulating snow for another 7 weeks - Spring is still 2 months away, regardless of the odd day that gets to 15c! The later it comes, the quicker we can skip summer and be back into autumn mode come early September! Keep the faith, you have 6 weeks to find a snow event yet.

Snizzle falling again for me. Too fine and light to cover, but it’s a day of falling snow, if you can call it that.

Snizzle and spots of rain here for the last hour. So fine you can barely see it.

That's because it's winter and this is the hunt for cold thread...posts that reference something positive to that are going to be given likes. Nothing wrong with being realistic, but most people are hunting for cold - most of them are aware of the woes of getting cold to the UK already and so don't need to be told 'THE SSW FAILS, SAME OLD CRAP' every 5 minutes, in order to be able to cope with a British winter.

Indeed. Question is, do we have 1 more lucrative chase left in the locker or does the last 3 months get swept under the carpet now? We are going to need to be so lucky, so quickly if we are to pull any redeeming factor out of this dismal and pathetic winter affair.

Shouldn't come as a surprise mate. I said a couple of days back we needed shifts and trends north before the inevitable shift south came. The writing was on the wall at 4PM today when the UKMO and then ECM said....HUGE JUMP SOUTH! Live in hope, but I'm expecting to stay all dry and snowless north of Birmingham. Just can't see it. Happy to be proven wrong. There's many things to learn about living in the NW midlands pal, 1, is ignore what the Cheshire gap shows until it's falling outside of your window and accumulating, the second is when a sliding system that can provide our biggest falls starts sliding south alarmingly, then forget it and move onto the next. Gutted how this week's turned out, it had all the hall marks of a memorable one - instead it's been wet, miserable and snowless. 6 weeks to go...can us north of Birmingham pull anything out of the fire?

Latest BEEB forecast - snow nowhere north of Birmingham (certainly not in measure). Maps keeping the system mostly south and west of Birmingham. Sharp cut off point, some will be lucky where other's 5 miles down the road can smell it but not see it! FWIW the ICON 18z, shows pretty much anywhere from Birmingham to Manchester getting 5-10CMs - but that's not going to happen.

Of course, totally understand what you are saying. But when the main models converge at this notice, especially during the 12z, the writing is on the wall. I admire your optimistic approach pal, see you posting on the mod thread frequently. But as someone else posted last night, optimism has given us zilch in the last 3 months. Hooefully you are right though. But I’ve seen this enough times having not moved house for 27 years, that once what is showing on tonight’s 12z happens....they don’t revert back after. If anything, it will go further south.

Don’t think there’s much feeling involved pal, once these things trend south, they don’t go back north. Tonight’s highest performing U.K. models show the front finishing about 80-100 miles south of your location.

I’m a weather fan, on a weather forum in winter. It’s highly unlikely to snow when it looked as though, for most of the week - this would be the event of the winter. There isn’t much to be cheery about in my comments on this forum.

We do get the occasional good one, last December for example. But once a trend south shows a front consistently not arriving for us, then you know you’ve had it. The fact it’s the UKMO and the ECM showing this makes it even more damning. Birmingham north stays bone dry IMO.

Desperate Steve, we need another 100 mile shift northwards. Terrible winter, topped with terrible events. Thursday being no different.

There is genuinely never a time where we should be thankful to avoid a dumping of snow, maybe if you live on a mountain in Austria, but for us? Nope, never.

Tonight’s ECM shows the front struggling to reach the far south midlands. I’d be looking at that chart and ploughing an entire council truck worth of salt all over it. That front won’t make it further north than Birmingham.

The ironic thing is, there’s no block to the east to stop the system in its track, which makes the modelling of the low all the worst. After what looked like a promising week for most of england and the north, the much maligned south are on the naughty step for stealing ALL of our snow.

Yep, as I just posted in the mod thread! Please ignore ALL phone apps and the likes of the BBC forecast. This front is very unlikely to make it to the Midlands, certainly Birmingham. Its an all south event. Been in this scenario 1 too many times to know once it goes south, it won’t head north again.

Don’t worry, this is the same company that broadcast quite widely for 1-3 or 2-5CM’s of snow widely throughout central England today, just last night. It’s rained all day with the odd flake on the back end. Somewhere from the south coast up to about Worcester should be very happy. That front won’t make it north of Birmingham. Enjoy the snow guys.

And....the slide south is on. Plan a BBQ for Thursday guys. This ones a miss.

That’s something. But Sod’s law normally works a treat vs all models. We need movements back north and for the front to stay active as it does tonight and throughout tomorrow. A sugar dusting is the minimum expectation this week, anything less and it’s time to look for a new hobby.

If the 12Z UKMO is right - look forward to half an hour of snizzle on Thursday north of Birmingham. Fantastic. This winter has been a total joke as far as I’m concerned, you can always guarantee a covering, even a slushy covering at times during winter, but this year’s been a total mess. Made much worse by the SSW that I’m actual fact has made this website practically unreadable for weeks because people had stupidly high expectations. I didnt, but so far this winter has been horrendous. Lets hope for a wet, active and thundery summer to compensate for this mess.

I’m hoping that’s not the entire run and just a still shot of a certain time period. This entire week promised a lot, but I’d going to go like this winter isn’t it. PATHETIC!

UKMO takes Thursday WELL south. Not the pattern anyone north of Birmingham wants this far out. No toys left to throw out of my pram.