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PolarWarsaw

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PolarWarsaw last won the day on January 6 2021

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  1. Absolutely fantastic, I'm over the moon to see the record breaking warmth has become an almost 'cold spell' like downgrade, to nothingness. We do not want 20c to become part of February in our future climate. There is a time and place to see 18-20c and that's the middle of May right to the end of August. Although that started in March last summer/most years now and seems to end into October! You fair weather 'mild fans' - really get to enjoy the weather you want for the vast majority of the year - spoilt! All bar a handful of days of the year are 'mild' enough not to be cold. I just want the 'envelope' shortening for 20c to be possible in our climate/year. Much like I'm sure most people don't want to see Frost on their gardens in August - warmth in February/March/April needs to feel very limited or else you run the risk of losing traditional seasonal feels and certain parts of the year feel like a meteorological chore. For me personally, my enthusiasm from a young age for the weather came from being able to enjoy 4 different seasons. Variety, changing weather and not getting stuck into 'patterns' for more than a few days. Since the last 10+ or so years seem to want our climate to become an extension of summer and autumn - that dampens my interest in following something that's been a hobby for as long as I can remember. Praying for dry, warm, mild weather isn't such a bad thing, but when that happens every day for months and people still spend their time moaning it's not hot enough, or dry enough, or it might rain in 5 days for half an hour. It's just a celebration of 'non weather', nothing to discuss, nothing to be excited or interested in, no analysis - just boredom. It's no surprise that this thread is virtually complete silence from April to October. The above, is, in sporting terms, similar to declaring yourself the worlds biggest lover of football - only to be happy when your team draws 0-0 in every single game for a league season. No signs of a cold shot at the moment, or indeed anything particularly mild from the models. I wouldn't be surprised to see some spring like weather in between periods of frost and cold, not especially wet. With how weak the vortex is this year, I can see us staying benign and chilly right out to near May before a quick flip to a very hot and dry Summer. PS - I understand the need this year to be able to get out of your house with some warmer weather and everything that's going on with Covid. However, I will say; 1) Covid restrictions aren't going to change much for months to come yet - regardless of it feeling a little milder. So don't apply positive slant towards warmer weather being a way out of these restrictions. 2) If you are going to let a bit of rain/wind/chill stop you going for fresh walks, running or just generally being out doors - then not being able to do that, clearly isn't THAT important enough to you, to spend time moaning about missing it on the internet. Stick a jacket on, or trainers with extra grip, an extra layer on, walk when you can't run. Come on now folks, let's 'get a grip' as a nation.
  2. This forum get's stranger and stranger by the year. Let the seasons be seasons? Variety is indeed the spice of life? Surely people don't come on a weather forum to actively search for and hope that high pressure and pleasantly mild days take over for 90% of the year? What's wrong with you? These type of posters are more suited to a lifestyle forum, not a weather one - as they clearly aren't fans of the actual weather. Since when was winter over before Mid Feb? We are statistically more likely to see cold weather and snow for the next 7 weeks, than we are at any other time of the year. Not an opinion, that's a fact . Not sure if it's the internet era, the increase of people able to give an opinion or if it's a true indictment of our evolving 'social media, whiny, moany, weak, snowflake era' - but every single year it seems to get earlier and earlier where people start declaring winter over and waffling about spring time temperatures? When I first joined this forum 10+ years ago, you wouldn't see the first search/request for Spring until the final week of March. Let's be realistic here, we live in the UK, beggars cannot be choosers - therefore a sloppy marginal snow event that delivers a covering of snow is very much on the table right out until the last couple of days of March. Keeping in mind most people would be content to take this. That's at least 7 more weeks where we are in with a chance of dealing with cold and snow. As someone mentioned above, it's pleasantly mild enough for the vast majority of the year to allow for fair weather 'mother meetings' in the outdoors. What has happened to wanting seasons in seasons? On a weather forum? I don't want to think about 20c for one single second, right out into the middle of May. Much like by then I don't want to be dealing with frost and gloves until the end of October. We very quickly these days transition from dark chilly days, right into the middle of summer. No middle, no spring - just all out of balance, it's wound up making summer feel extremely long and miserable. It happened in 2018 and the BBQ was out within days of lockdown being ordered last March - it's too long, too much, let's keep this thread interesting and active - something that won't happen as soon as it dries out and warms up. A season isn't a season if 1 weather type takes up 6-7 months of an entire year. One thing I will say is, I've worked in retail for a while and the weather quite frequently trolls people at this time of year....Temperatures get into the mid teens and people walk about saying 'its very nice today out there, spring is here' - only to find that a week later and sometimes right late into March it's cold and frosty, the woolies are needed again and it was all just a false dawn. Probably quite devious of me, but I always end up thinking 'ha suckers, where's your fair weather gone'. Not sure there'd be such universal positivity in this thread if roles reversed here and we saw Max temps of 10c and driving rain forecast for early August?! Let people enjoy a season without waffling on about something alternative at the first given chance. Shake your heads folks, there's plenty of time for mild, mundane, summery, boring, sweaty, fair weather - it happens about 7 months of the year. March has twice in the last decade seen notable, memorable - 'best winter months'. Even if it does get mild for a few days, enjoy it - it could be the last 20c until the middle of May (we can live in hope, it shouldn't be that warm until then). Here is to a year of actual seasons. Not cold into 7 months of mild summery weather. Showery spring with lots of rainbows, stormy, warmish and wet summer followed by a wild and windy Autumn - into a bitter winter!
  3. What a really frustrating spell for most of us this has been. I knew the streamers would deliver next to zero for most of us away from the favoured eastern areas, but a snowy breakdown/slider should really have been on the table. If not more than that. Still hopefully more opportunities to arise in the coming 6 weeks. Its February the 9th, nobody should be thinking about Spring!
  4. From tomorrow yeah - it looks dry and cold for 90% of the country, even more so than what we have seen up to now.
  5. Bone dry and uncomfortably cold in an environment that screams 'snow event' - but couldn't be any less from delivering such at the surface. A gigantic dig in the ribs as far as we should all be concerned. The coldest uppers of the winter over our heads for 4/5 days and nothing.... About as much use as a Chocolate fireguard to protect your ice cream on the surface of the sun.
  6. This ECM is the exact reason why sometimes chasing snow and cold in an easterly away from the most favourable areas is very frustrating. What happens is we get a couple of convective days and the models originally show the block being underestimated with the Atlantic pushing it away. The block nearly always fights back across the next couple of days extending 'surface cold' and keeping areas where snow has fallen colder for longer. Everybody then cries 'upgrade', the cold is fighting back!!!!!!! etc. We celebrate upgrades far too easily in the UK. However, what has happened in this particular scenario and is more often than the case, is the block is remaining just strong enough to keep the Atlantic at bay, whilst dropping the convection and leaving most areas dry but cold. Because the block is then weakening and the disruption is poor, what we are left with from a cold spell is - a couple of favourable days of streamers for the east, most of the central/west remaining dry. This is then followed by a dry/cold spell with harsh frosts for most of the country and then as the block finally weakens enough to let the Atlantic in the block pulls away taking it's cold uppers/surface cold with it and as a front finally makes it across the UK - it either brings mild sectors, delivers snow to rain or in what is looking most likely is just ushering the Atlantic and milder weather in with it. In other words, most areas of the country end up looking east enviously and then misses any sort of snow event. I tried mentioning last week that it's no use/is NOT an upgrade for the block to hang around and 'fight back' if it's not going to let the Atlantic in far enough, or just into that jackpot territory where sliders make it to roughly Manchester north and Lincolnshire east before fizzling out into the block (see March 2013, modest set up - snowiest month in decades). 3 or 4 days of bone dry and frosty weather isn't what we should be aiming for in an 'upgrade' - it would be better for the block to relent, allow the Atlantic in a bit quicker and then see if we can favourably align a fresh block a week or so later. As it is, this week will just go down as another wasted week of winter for most areas of the country and the extra 5 days or so of 'nothingness' is more time eaten away towards the silent mod thread chore of spring/summer. I'm pretty sure @Catacol spoke words of truth a few days back when he said Macro scale patterns had been very good for the UK this year, but micro scale and the complete lack of a genuinely widespread snow event (note, not streamer or localised slider event) has been so dismal for us. At no turn have we 'scraped' something out of nothing this year. It feels like such a waste of what may end up being the opportunity of the winter to get something notably snowy for the large majority in. Still, there's 6 week or so to go IMO - we really need to nail down a couple of snow events for this winter to not go down as the largest 'what could have been' winter in living UK memory. (Think how much has been in our favour this year).
  7. Not the best of charts this morning, although some rather dramatic responses in here. There's no sign of a Bartlett, or a raging zonal onslaught. As soon as the pattern sorts itself out to our east, I think the path for the remainder of February will be sorted in one favour or another quite smoothly. I do think it's absolutely vital we get a snowy breakdown in before the cold does eventually work away, it will be the difference between a cold spell remembered positively or one that has been one of the biggest let downs in the Netweather internet era. When exactly has happened this week? With -12 uppers , why is snow melting in the middle of the day? Why is the wind so light? Why is all convection dying out 50 miles inland? I have to say - not just the snow, but this whole week is feeling rather lame at the minute for a vast majority of this country. I'm shocked, I was expecting to feel a bit like the BFTE part 2 this week, but it's nothing like it. On the whole though, I have to say I'm shocked that people are discussing Spring already? These little undercurrents seem to get earlier each year. I can't decide if it's trolling or the latest reverse psychology frenzy? Winter is over in the middle of December, radiation brings us heatwaves as soon as February 15th arrives . It's February the 9th, discussing Spring would be like spending July 9th hoping/expecting Autumn is arriving. March and late February frequently and have been for numerous years delivered the best cold/snowy spells. Given everything that's happened so far this winter, you would argue we are more likely than ever this year to be discussing winter a long way into March. I would not be surprised with everything that's going on in the world at the moment, for the weather to troll us and the general nation into an short sharp blast of 'spring' - only to dip us into a very cold and long March. We seem to end up doing this nearly every season. Far too early to be giving up on Winter...as I say, would the BBQ go away on July 9th? No chance.
  8. This is painstaking. The 12z ECM is about as boring as it could ever possibly be in the UK without being mild or wet. Stinks of a dry and chilly couple of weeks. Time is ticking now. Give me the GFS snowy breakdown. Easterlies really are shoddy for us lot.
  9. Nothing? There was a couple of model suites that showed some very cold charts. Never concrete, never sustained - all deep into FI. Quite surprised to see people got even remotely giddy about them. We are heading towards a dry/chilly spell - probaby to take us deep into the 3rd week of February. Do we? Not sure that's what central and western parts want to see. The craving and the 'need' now is for this winter to deliver a widespread snow event. I'd rather take my chances on a widespread breakdown event than spend another 3 weeks building towards and easterly that delivers streamers across eastern areas - whilst the larger part of the country is freezing and bored senseless. Time is running out, I'd sooner take the short term gains at this point and I don't think I would be on my own.
  10. This can't technically be all true, there's a tiny minority of the country with snowfall deemed worthy of being outdoors in it. It seems to be me that the outlook is moderate/poor/very poor and for those places that aren't currently getting snow (a lot more of the country than not) the chances of actually getting any are dwindling as every model suite is completed. Seems odds on for us to get into a High pressure dominated scenario, possibly quite long lasting too. Not bad for surface cold, as for snow? Might as well be a Bartlett. We desperately need a widespread snowy breakdown for the large majority of the UK to remember this spell.
  11. There is categorically zero chance, that a few days of cold weather is going to delay a vaccination process on this scale. It might 'slightly' hamper it in tiny minorities for the worst hit areas, but cold weather alone will not deter anyone determined enough to go out and get it, the road network is fine. What is more likely is that as the vaccination increases, people will disregard rules, go back to 'normal' and then we will see another peak of cases, delaying lockdown into middle summer. Such is how thick our nation is, on the whole. Back to the weather - heavier shower here, leaving a small covering on roofs - puddles on the paths/roads now. Further hampering any chance of accumulation here.
  12. Was it even a chance though? There was only a small handful of runs that showed an extension of cold in the snowy/notable sense was on the table. To me we are heading out of this moderate 'cold spell' into a dry/high pressure dominated spell - unfortunately, this is the wrong time of the year for that to take shape as it will take us out towards the end of February without a true nationwide snow event. We need to be looking for ways to increase the chances of a widespread snowy breakdown, to make up for the total non event of this week - certainly in the case of virtually all away from favourable eastern areas. It's a shame this week looks like being 'the spell we have waited for' after everything that's been on the table this winter. It won't be long before the mildies are out in force with 'Spring' posts.
  13. The warnings have been a professional joke since they failed to deal with the slider a few Sunday's back. Even then, they added an amber warning when the event had all but ended.
  14. Unless you enjoy dandruff, then 95%+ of what you are missing isn't worth looking at out of the window.
  15. What a pathetic spell this is turning out to be. Not a patch on the BFTE, it doesn't even feel that cold. Dandruff has been blowing around in the wind since last night, nothing sticking - floors damp/wet - no accumulation later as the showers are too weak/small, The showers look good on radar but are absolutely nothing by the time they get this far in land. Worst thing of all is that any widespread breakdown snow is constantly put back further SW, meanwhile we stay dry and chilly with HP in charge and another week or 2 of winter is gone. People seem to actually be wanting this to prolong the agony of a weak Scandi HP that will deliver no snow and steal more time from us. Still this is a modest easterly, accumulating snow above 1-2CM is a 10/1 shot for most of this area this week. No surprise really, forecasters are abysmal. To think some were content to watch Storm Darcy drift further away from our region to increase 'convection' Useless.
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