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PolarWarsaw

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Everything posted by PolarWarsaw

  1. Why are we seeing 'The wheels are off posts' 3 days before an SSW even starts? Sorry but there needs to be some frank reminders and realistic thinking in here. If you are talking odds wise - the chances of having a 2 week cold spell that for example, would be notable enough to remember in 10 years without an SSW is probably 1000/1, WITH an SSW it's probably 100/1. Not sure how many 100/1 bankers I can recall happening in my life? You still need absolutely everything to go our way, an SSW can bring all forms of weather, it's arguably as likely to be bad for the UK as it is good. Frankly, the key thing here - the most important thing is that a handful of people forecasted an SSW against all seasonal models. Taps on the back and a brilliant forecast by those people. However, what actually happens after an SSW is the bit that nobody can predict, forecast, worry about etc. So how can the wheels be coming off something that's not happened or may not ever happen? I'm absolutely hoping as much as anyone that we get a repeating bitterly cold spell lasting from now until April, but from a genuine health aspect of this thread and the future of this thread - it might be better if this SSW is a complete failure in terms of bringing cold. Perhaps next year the entire thread could focus on current weather and not be diluted by 'Ignore tonight's charts, there's an SSW forecast for 8 weeks time mate, come back then for the boom charts'. As I mentioned I can completely understand why, but for me SSW's are the largest 'Jam tomorrow bait' that we can possibly have in this country. Not because people ramp, or forecast Armageddon as such - but because all conversation is so overtly positive that it's only natural expectations are built up. SSW's are also long, drawn out, very fickle and quite often change at that last minute to become weaker/shorter lasting (as has happened this week). They also allow people to ignore the here and now and brush over crap current output, the likes that we had to put up with for the entire of December just because 'don't worry an SSW is happening in 6 weeks mate' - nonsense IMO. We need to stop worrying about something that is 100/1 to happen and focus on the fact that 2/3 days ago next week looked wet, now it looks white for a vast majority. Should next week be snowy then that would be virtually 2 weeks of frosty nights, cold days and snow opportunities for virtually the entire country. This WOULD represent a longer, colder and snowier spell for the UK than in most winters....it's just that nobody is taking any notice. As I mentioned before....the last few days and next 10 days will provide the coldest, longest and snowiest period of winter IMO - ignore it and you will miss winter.
  2. Hmmmm. First time in a few weeks I'd say where things may actually be starting to really turn against us in the mid-term. A rogue OP Run, sure - but backed up by the EPS and looking through comparing to the GFS - there's actually worse runs than this appearing. Let's hope we can work on next week's DP's - colder and for longer, it may save the disappointment a little bit.
  3. Despite a poor run in the mid term this evening, people should be feeling more positive about next week itself - a move in the right direction there this evening. I mentioned last night that I'd have taken some half decent odds on next week being the 'spell' of the winter and instead of worrying about what might happen at 10 day, let's have a look at things coming together for Day 5 and 6. IF things fall our way it could potentially be quite a snowy week with surprises in there. These long, drawn out SSW building block 'jam tomorrow' style episodes rarely work out for the UK it's exactly why I'm not a fan of always having to wait for things, they inevitably fall apart and after a build up this long, it will feel like a VERY large kick in the teeth if this January isn't memorable (well, for not being the biggest disappointment in weather forum history). Although, it would be a good learning curve for future reference. Not even the best setup brings snow to the UK. Nobody is here for Cold, Frosty of foggy days or spells - it's snow, or nothing contrary to how many others want to word it in a less blunt way. Focus on next week would be my message...might surprise a few and it could quite easily turn out to be the best week of the winter.
  4. Spot on. Not only that, but there is a couple of things at play here. The SSW scenario, really rarely helps keep winter expectations to a low. They are so long winded, drawn out and fickle that you can spend 6-8 weeks of an entire winter avoiding looking at the actual weather models, focusing on something that can take all that time to happen, just to find that it's not the guaranteed ticket to cold some think it will be. People then have their own agenda's and mix up what's positive in the Strat to what's actually happening outside the window (the Strat and models mean nothing if it just rains outside your window) it just leads to all sorts of bickering and let downs through this thread. The second thing is the fact that we have massively underachieved for what could have been a very nice pattern. I keep seeing 'Amazing winter' or 'This is so brilliant' etc - but there's a huge difference between amazing on the internet and amazing outside the window and that's why there's been so much frustration. You could argue the best word to describe this winter so far is 'unusual'. For two reasons, 1) The sheer persistence to keep the Vortex away from Greenland and 2) The complete lack of cold weather or wintry weather throughout the entire of Europe, despite point 1. Personally I cant emphasise enough for me how important it is to keep Strat/Models and then opinions going forward separate. There would be a much better, more patient atmosphere if we had found a way to 'over achieve' with a small nationwide event etc. It's hard to get the point over that I'm making - but we have had much worse background conditions deliver a 2/3 cold spell with a slider that's bumped into colder air (December 2017 I believe delivered 5/6 inches over most of the midlands north and it was barely cold enough for Snow a day either side of the event) so to make absolutely ZERO use of a pattern that has vastly favoured Colder and snowy conditions for us, one that we will frankly, rarely EVER see in our lifetimes is very frustrating. We will have much worse setups in future years be remembered for much better snowy spells than what this years charts would have you believe so far. We need to be realistic here it's 6 weeks now into Winter. It is all but January now and our winter so far has seen a very wet December where it rained virtually every day for 2/3 weeks of the month, we have had above average temperatures and bar the odd frost/isolated this week, basically absolutely nothing that would replicate wintry conditions. If you mix that with an SSW that now looks to be less favourable in terms of displacement/split then I can envisage the atmosphere being completely toxic in this thread if a very favourable pattern doesn't set up from an SSW that's been 6-8 weeks in the making. OBVIOUSLY we are in a much better place than we may be without an SSW and this unusual pattern is absolutely fascinating. It's also nice to get the soil and ground a touch colder this week, there are some blocks in place that may well be favourable as we head into the middle of the month. However, I'd say expectations are now very high and mentally, anything less than a pretty memorable spell of cold and WIDESPREAD SNOWY spell will leave most with a nasty taste. No doubt about it, the potential is massive and we are in a better position than most years - but sooner or later the spell has to arrive without being delayed, watered down, pushed back or interrupted by a background model that flips and flops more than the 18Z GFS in FI. If this winter ended now, the most significant memory of it would be the outrageous disparity between internet charts and the weather that happened. That needs to change ASAP. On to the 12z. An early Happy New year to you all - may 2021 make up in whatever way possible for the misery that 2020 was!
  5. Interesting this part mate, are you not feeling the same about this month as you were many times during the last few weeks/week? Obviously the type of SSW we may have been looking at has downgraded to a displacement, rather than the split we all wanted. Not much talk of an SSW in a positive light in here today? Honestly, I don't think that's a bad thing either. If we can squeeze something more out of next week's pattern, there would probably be enough snow and cold in there to consider it the 'best spell' of the winter - SSW or not.
  6. Disappointed, in fact negativity at all is probably a little bit far-fetched for this specific chart. But I have to say I'm a little 'disappointed' to see zonal winds organising again by the end of the month. I can't help but feel the massive split touted in the models and by others around the internet is clearly now not happening and is turning rapidly into a displacement episode. Obviously as a starting point clearly there's a great thing, but I was rather hoping we would be talking about the effects of a mid-season SSW right the way through the end of February - IE, a vortex never recovering. There's not been half as much talk about an SSW in the last few days and actually, that might be because it's about to start happening in the atmosphere and this is a period of waiting and watching, but I do also think that things look a lot less exciting than perhaps they did a week ago and that's a contributing factor. To be honest though, that's not a bad thing. I feel like the charts/output we currently see in the next 7-10 days might actually bear the 'cold spell of the winter'. We do spend a lot of time watching FI throughout our winters and the reality is, we might actually be on the cusp of something fairly notable, without the help of an SSW. The more and more I look at the charts, the more an SSW is actually making me a little worried. Not in terms of what it can bring, but more that this is 2020 and the opposite is probably more likely to happen. We have been in such an unusual repetitive pattern for about 6 weeks now that I'm almost tempted to ask an SSW to hold off for a couple of weeks yet, so we can persevere with this current pattern that keeps teasing us with cold enough uppers to bring what would still be a 1-2 week, very cold and potentially snowy pattern. It wouldn't even be ironic, for an SSW to bring us BBQ weather, it's just standard for the UK - you expect the worst of every scenario. My message tonight would be to focus on what is showing in the output in the next 10 days. Yes as we speak it looks marginal, but if anything like tonight's ECM 192 or last nights 18z GFS verifies then I would put a lot of money if offered evens or more on the period prior to an SSW downwelling being the coldest spell of this entire winter. With that in mind, it does have to be said that today's models have moved away, on the whole for anything of interest in that time period - so it's one to watch for now. Focus on the models and with a bit of luck we might not actually 'need' an SSW to give us something very exciting nationwide at the surface. PS - I've had two separate falls of 1-3CM's, in day light with -4 uppers this week at 70M's...so I certainly wouldn't be TOO hung up if charts show rain. It won't take much to turn that all snowy - much like it won't take much for us to miss out at all.
  7. I'm glad to see you have that same view point. Like it or not, the last 2/3 days have seen a gradual watering down of amplification later into FI - whether it's 'flat' in the usual form isn't up for debate, but IT IS FLATTER currently than what was advertised for the previous few days, which is the point people are making. Considering that wasn't Narnia anyway - less amplification is not good news, regardless of whichever positive spin we all want to put out there. Is nobody else a little bit disappointed with what's on offer for next week? This is a pretty rare set up. The charts themselves would have delivered a very exciting spell of weather in many years gone by. But apart from the wind and a chance of some light snow/flakes Monday AM - the charts look far better than they are delivering at the surface. Really is a very frustrating set up. A week of frost, dry and sunny weather is as much of a waste of winter as a raging Atlantic. It feels like we have been waiting weeks for 'Christmas-new year week' and in reality, it's looking like a wasted pattern. I don't fancy another Day 10 chase into January, or relying on an SSW to not only happen, but then land in our favour - we just don't get that lucky. Let's hope we get one as it could be a long couple of months otherwise IMO, especially with patience so frayed. With the set up and over-hyping for what are, average charts are the surface - it feels like this season has been long already! Mentally it feels like winter has been great on the internet, but the story outside is very different. Here are to upgrades - Merry Christmas all.
  8. Obviously only worth a watch at the moment, but there's been a trend to send things west so far today. Decreases the chances of a low land surprise as the uppers are even lower/more marginal. Even more worryingly there's more than a few west based NAO's starting to show, that would really sum the start of winter up if we manage to get there. Not good signs in the short or medium term today. Let's see what the strat charts have to offer.
  9. Oh absolutely, but in order for it to be a notable spell of cold and snow in my opinion - we need to see the vast majority of the country involved, not favoured locations. These said locations see snow in marginal set ups each winter because they are exactly that, favoured. If the upcoming spell of weather rinsed and repeated for the entire of the next 3 months - it would be one of the worst winters ever for central and southern England, but a winter of records in Scotland. Much like in summer, if the South and East has a 20 day heatwave but in Bristol and Manchester it's not been the warmer side of 21c, then using a national based forum thread to proclaim it was the great heatwave of X year, would be ludicrous. Take your point on board with what's been forecasted in the next few weeks with regards to the strat and I have enjoyed your posts/contributions, one of the plus points so far this season. But I think it's fair to say calling this a significant piece of weather historically needs to be watched for the time being. Charts and model watching has been fascinating, I agree. It hasn't been interesting at the surface though, it's just rained a lot. Sooner or later these nice patterns have to produce, or else it will turn into a giant waste and honestly, the atmosphere of this thread will be much worse if all this time waiting leads to nothing. There's plenty of time for that to happen, but my point was referencing the here and now. There's very little low land, widespread snow forecast in the next 10 days and if the charts verify as shown tonight, there won't be. That doesn't disregard the strat and how interesting of a position we are in, but vice versa - a good set of strat charts don't deliver snow either. There has to be some balance in this thread. Winter Strat/Models - Fascinating, impressive, exciting. Winter at the surface - Predominantly above average, miserable and wet, in short - NOT exciting. The bottom 1 negates the top 1 and will continue to do the longer we go into winter without that notable, widespread snowy spell. That's my point, we need to address a balance in this thread so all kinds of posters involved are understanding and that the Strat looks great at the moment, we are in a good position. Ultimately, at the surface - in the immediate future, it's nothing outstanding and has been quite dismal up to now. I noted you called this winter so far 'outstanding' last night and as much as I admire your posts, think they are brillantly informative and could only wish to reach the standards of knowledge you have - it's been outstanding on the internet, but not outside the nations windows. We need to be really careful not to confuse people in here and keep separate what is happening in the strat, to what actually happens at the surface. The strat can be as good or bad as it wants, but there can't be ignorance to what's happening in the here and now. There also cannot be questions or bickering about the other opinions, given it seems there are posters on different time lengths and wave lengths. To keep that simple, for example; you named winter outstanding last night and it has/could be in the strat (that's your focus and wave length). What I'm saying tonight, is that it's been miserable at the surface and the strat/reality disconnect will probably be the route of confusion, bickering and arguments. Whereas, it shouldn't be and people can help others by making their preference known.
  10. There has been a lull of posts in here today because for all money we look to be heading into another situation as we did early month - close but no cigar. Yes, there is certainly more back bone to the cold this time and yes, over the years there has been numerous little events unfold that have delivered surprise snowfalls (and are likely to again) - I couldn't even begin to count the times that haven't? So I find that a bit of a flimsy argument. The reality for the most of us, is that after weeks of waiting and being patient we are not even remotely staring down the barrel of a cold and snowy spell. Lots of cold rain, sleet and some isolated snow looks likely. If I lived in Scotland, Northern England or somewhere like Oldham for example then I'd be quietly content that I will see some potentially accumulating snowfall in the next 10 days or so. Given the vast majority of posters live at 100m's< in this country and the wider population of this forum will be posting from inner city locations or more specifically south of the M4, this is not a pattern that should be rejoiced in for current prospects at the surface - for the immediate term that is. Again this evening, we are seeing 'amazing' looking synoptical charts that for whatever are NOT fulfilling the same potential for the weather at the surface. I refer back to early month for a rinse and repeat, albeit with more potential to deliver this time. If there was signs of a Bartlett or an aggressive Atlantic spell in the models for the 1st week of January...the model output thread would be a very different place tonight. It's a dangerous thing to spend 6-8 weeks of winter pinning hopes on an SSW. They aren't a new form of meteorology, it's just we are starting to learn more about them as they become more prominently discussed as a tool to use, we have had them for decades and our winters haven't changed for the better on the whole. (Rather the opposite) This winter has been devoid of the Atlantic as we know it for the almost 4-6 weeks now. It's time to start seeing the Day 10 charts that have been stuck at Day 10 for 6 weeks now actually deliver. Let's hope the ECM comes back towards the GFS.
  11. Summer was perfectly good, superb if you like compared to summers of 20 years ago. Especially when compared to many of our summers over the year. Yes, it rained very occasionally and was 'cooler' but at no point was this summer anything less than above average - it also lasted for about 6 months, not 3/4. Numerous heatwaves or days above 20c, hours and hours of sun - dry arid dusty ground. It was thoroughly mundane. Conversely, if you are a winter fan - how many days of Snow have been had during 'winter'. Compare that to the copious, endless, weeks of days involving Sun and 20C+ temps had from the middle of April until the latter of September - there's no argument to be had. Summer was great and nobody should be moaning, let alone spamming the mod thread every single day, 4 times a day for nearly 6 months with moans about a cirrus cloud forming, angles of degrees and exciting discussions on 0.1 temperature differences to what the models showed. Summer's are without doubt getting longer, drier, more humid. It's vile. Anti weather at it's finest, mostly enjoyed by those with a preference to life style rather than enjoyment of weather, which is a strange, strange old thing considering this is a weather forum. I personally hope summer is very active, very wet, short, below average temperatures with copious daily storms and trough after trough. Just preference. I'd sooner we had 23 hours of a day of hail and cold rain right bordering on sleet for 12 months of the year than suffer the numbing summer months. These last few have been hideously humid and miserable beyond measure.
  12. Yeah....to the end of March. Only on the wind up. Bit of a middle ground scenario this evening, it's a shame that the 'better' synoptics long term are arising from the GFS and not the Euro's - confidence can increase when it's that way round. The GEFS are predominantly horrific. My feeling is that we may need another delay into the new year for another round of Amplification. I think virtually everything is on the table at the moment, which is making the model watching enthralling. Those wanting snow at the surface may want to look away for a while yet though.
  13. I disagree mate, but fair enough. Hope you have a good Christmas and New Year.
  14. Nothing personal at all, but you were one of the only people in the entire of the world that spent this last summer on the MOD thread bemoaning and dragging on about it not being stupidly hot every second of every day for 5 months with uninterrupted Sahara like heatwave conditions....in England. Filling the MOD thread with endless moany posts even though - Summer this year started at practically the end of March was above average, very warm, above average for sunshine and included numerous heatwave like spells, lasting right the way through into late September. I found the posts in the MOD thread this summer, to make an already boring time of the year nearly unpalatable with everything else going on in the world, I personally needed something to keep me interested. We needed some excitement this summer. What we didn't need was endless, sweaty, hot, dry, miserable, boring and mundane days - only for people to celebrate actually getting the kind of weather preference they asked for and then celebrated it spending half the time moaning about them. Nothing personal against you as I mention. I just find the ever emerging 'Anti weather' brigade to be a painful representation of our modern day snowflake society. That's climate change and a whole different topic. Anyway that's for another topic! Hope you are well and I'm sure summer will bring some heat again this year.
  15. Why on earth has my above post been moved to the moans thread? There are a multitude of posts more worthy of this thread that are ignored each day, mostly because the reputation of said poster is in the thousands. Not a good tone to set for summer? Poor old @Alderc will end up banned from the model thread, that many of his posts will be reported.
  16. 'A 2010 redux' 'All roads leads to Rome' 'Cobra runs' This forum never ceases to amaze at times. It has been an exciting 6 weeks of model watching with some fantastic analysis and some very intriguing NH patterns. I'm an avid coldie and this scenario is much more entertaining than taking weeks off at a time with a Bartlett or raging Atlantic in charge. Obviously we are in a much better position than usual and because of that there is a high percentage chance of a snowy spell. I totally understand the commentary every few hours, it's what makes this forum the place it is during Winter. However, come on now folks. I can not remember a single winter that has ever been so dominated by Charts that all stay at Day 10? It's one of the more frustrating things I can remember during my time on this forum. We are normally sat watching miserable patterns with no hope at the end of the rainbow for weeks at a time. This year is completely opposite and I'm not sure that is a good thing. For 6 ENTIRE WEEKS now, not 1 promising chart at Day 10 has actually come to fruition at the surface. A very worrying and noticeable trend delaying everything is repeatedly happening. We get 4-6 model runs showing the day 10 progression forward to Day 8/9. Then it all gets delayed, amplification fails/the solution changes and we are back to look at Day 11/12 for interest. This is not isolated, this is happening every couple of days and has been for 4-6 weeks. We simply MUST get these charts down passed Day 10 before the reset and inevitable Zonal spell. There is categorically less than a zero chance that there is not one proper zonal spell in the next 2 or so months, it just is going to happen and will take more of winter away from us, this is something people are forgetting too. By now we have normally had 2-4 weeks of Zonal dross, we almost certainly will get that at some point - even if it's for a week or 2, so for all of our good position at the moment we will be entering the new year, or thereabouts with zero snow fall and the likelihood of facing the Atlantic. The weeks WILL suddenly start slipping away quite quickly. It's a fantastic watch and read at the minute, but too many people are getting carried away with SSW hopes and background drivers that change more often than the FI of our beloved 18z GFS and CFS put together! SSW's are NO guarantee of snowy weather to our shores, in fact, they CAN have the opposite effect. Spending months relying on one is a very fickle game, let's get the snow and cold in now and take our chance. Over to an interesting set of 12z. No if's, buts or maybes we now MUST, - without fail start getting these charts of interest down to Days 4 and 5, or else all the fun analysis will be a waste of all of our time.
  17. Oh yes, this little chesnut. I assume we are all convert Italians at this point then? Probably the 100th time this has been posted since the end of last month. 99.9% of the population have had ZERO falling (let alone accumulating snow) with the odd frost, in between a lot of mild and wet this month. All roads point to Rome, if we get there. Practically guaranteed that all of our roads will suddenly find themselves closed if even one minor issue appears, but let's hope not. A rightly grounded atmosphere in here this evening, for whatever reason we just CANNOT get charts into even a semi reliable timeframe. It feels like we have been watching exciting things happen at Day 9/10 for about 6 weeks now. It's almost like we get the carrot at Day 10, then a new signal is picked up and filtered down by Day 8. With that being said, I'd have increased confidence in some sort of Cold spell over the Christmas period rather than we the previous month we just had to endure. Starting to look a little bit toasty in the Strat and it appears we will probably get a couple of chances of topplers - at least. Just remember though, we need 1000 things to go perfectly without issue in our favour, even 1 out of that number goes against us and it's game. Let's be realistic though, we all talk about the Strat/trop disconnect and it affecting us. The only disconnect I've seen so far this season, is all of these background drivers, the models and the dross we have endured at the surface. Something more exciting is potentially on the horizon.
  18. Who? Do we have telepathic members amongst us? Before winter started virtually every pro favoured a front loaded winter, the strat and trop to couple after New Year and leave us locked with Atlantic weather through January and most of February? So far you would argue they have been correct, high pressure and snow inducing uppers just haven't landed for us. If that forecast continues to be anywhere near accurate, then it spells bad news for us. The only significant thing that has happened, is we have wasted good NH patterns with wet dross at the surface and as usual that similar delaying motion that happens every single winter without fail has started to creep in. In mid November it was the turn of the month, then the middle of December, then for the last two weeks it's been all about the Christmas period and new year...now we are on to January and potentially even longer? No disrespect to you mate as I admire your posts and have followed yourself and @CreweCold for years, but we are falling slowly into the same winter musings as we do every year.....delay, delay, delay - then it's the end of March and the first T-shirt day is being is the hot topic of discussion. Anyway, on to the models. I actually like tonight's 12z outputs. Even if not snowy, they are borderline between rain/snow and a visit from the PV would be most welcome, at least it would feel a bit like winter and the weather at the surface would be quite exciting. There's an emerging movement creeping into this forum for what I'd call 'Anti-weather', a craving for endless, dry, boring days during Summer and then an 'at least it's dry though' tone added to every post throughout winter. Where's the excitement in chasing and hoping for the most mundane weather imaginable? This is an active weather forum. Not a mother's meeting about the weather suiting lifestyles. On to the 18z, hopefully the exciting tone continues.
  19. Slightly better in the short term from the charts so far today, Christmas day more likely to be chilly than wet and mild. Mid-term increased signs of the Vortex potentially returning home, with increased strenght and hints of stronger euro heights. Only hints at the minute, but once they appear they normally pick up at speed through the models, I expect us to trend towards a mild and wet new year. Today's 12Z GFS, looks ominously like last night's 'Winter is over' 18z GFS. Let's hope not. Plenty to play for - still, absolutely odds on that 99.9% of the nation see's no falling or accumulating snow this December. Would be a sad end to a terrible year.
  20. Looks like the nappy gang are out in twisted pants full force this evening. Nibbles galore. First of all, I didn't say that EVERYONE believed everything. However year after year new posters to the forum, or those that are less experienced DO believe the hype around charts at T240. It's worth reminding them that taking the models seriously at that range aren't worth the internet bandwidth they take up. I'm also fully aware that the notion behind an internet forum is to look at things in the future and discuss what may or MAY NOT happen. That can be respected, but a street walks two ways. If I don't want to rely on weather charts nearly 10 days down the line coming to fruition to effect the emotional balance of my evening's postings then that should also be respected. I am an avid fan of SNOWY cold weather, couldn't think of a worse form of weather than a dry humid heatwave. The be all and end all is that we are now 5 weeks into winter and bar a bit of wet slop for all but 0.01% of the entire of the nation that caught a locally period transient spell of wet sleet and snow (Again check the wording of my post regarding a chart showing snow and a notable cold snowy spell not actually verifying). This should come as no surprise, today's charts have all shown an increased trend for a weak Atlantic ridge and less in the way of cold conditions suitable to snow at the surface. It must be the 3rd or 4th time already this winter that 'all roads lead to Rome' has been touted after a few promising days of model output. Only for a quick trend for the Atlantic to take more control than previously thought. Obviously things are looking good for multiple bites at the cherry. But let's not sugar coat things. Today see's a trend away from a Cold Christmas spell, to something more mobile and perhaps milder. Too much residual energy off the eastern seaboard and unfortunately that's just the way our climatology works. What we don't want to do is continually hope cast 10 days ahead of ourselves only to get to that said date and then add more weeks of waiting....if this ridge completely fails as it looks like doing, what then? 1st week of Jan? 2nd week of Jan? That's half of winter gone. If ever there was a year for the models to play nicely with us, it's this year - we deserve it. As of yet, snow starved Britain continues.
  21. The issue is, people start taking a computer generated forecast as gospel at +T200. At no point this winter have we got one single cold chart that's likely to produce either snow at the surface or go on to produce a cold spell that's sufficient enough for snow. Again, some pretty charts appeared at the day 10 range and the carrot is nibbled. The reality is, things change too much in our atmosphere for even the most expensive computers to live with, what is at day 10 this evening will end up being nothing like the chart the verifies. Chilly, but not cold is the most likely outcome for Christmas and into the New Year. There's no strong enough, long lasting ridge in the Atlantic modelled anywhere near a realistic timeframe to be calling anything other than average weather. It's clear tonight that there's another pattern around the corner for the Christmas-New Year period, cold or mild is up for debate. But you won't nail that down for another 4-5 days yet.
  22. I can only assume I missed the ice age of the last decade then? Although the GFS has a bias, an obvious one and is quite frequently completely wrong when it comes to over-powering energy and the Atlantic in general. It shouldn't be discounted for picking up the pattern at the surface. Only 2 weeks back the GFS and ECM were on board for an 'all roads lead to cold scenario'. Low and behold a couple of days later, the GFS showed energy being too much for our Russian block and the weather being unsettled, mild and damp in the UK - yes it got every detail wrong in terms of exactly how this unfolded. But, the Russian block drifted and our weather at the surface, showed exactly what the GFS wanted. Wet, mild and damp - not a single Frost in sight, let alone a flake! As soon as one model starts showing things falling apart where ridges and cold opportunities lay, you normally see the rest come on board - even if it takes them a couple of days. That being said nobody should be disappointed tonight, a thin section of uppers cold enough for Frost and mountain snow covered our shores for all of 2/3 model runs yesterday. Anyone getting excited over that or believing the cold is coming and then calling a 'failure of models' is laughable and needs to find another hobby. That also means that tonight's Westerly dominated, wet and mild festive period/new year could also be wrong. Get your patterns and uppers into T72, if they fail before that it just means something changed in our incredibly fluid atmosphere. Models are wrong practically every single day of the year at T168+ - it's just that nobody picks up on it because Snow isn't the hot topic. There are just as many changes to the weather and patterns at those times in summer, it's just that there is nobody here to notice or moan about them (apart from Mr A single Cirrus cloud ruined my heatwave @Alderc himself). Plenty left to play for tonight.
  23. Far too much energy coming from the Eastern Seaboard is consistently being modelled at the moment. Pretty sure Feb pointed it out last night, but transient wedges is the order of the day. We may see a couple of topplers in a short space of time, but anyone looking at anything even remotely other than a quick snap with a couple of frosts and some wintry showers over Scotland's mountains is really asking for a let down. Mild and wet this week, a touch cooler with perhaps some a couple of morning frosts over the festive period...then what into new year? A snowless December for all but 0.01% of the UK population is a short odds favourite at the weather bookies.
  24. Well, what a shock hey. Potential filled patterns that don't advance forward from day 10 and then require 1 million things to go in our direction and not 1 thing against, they don't work out. 4 weeks of winter weather chasing already wasted on a phantom December, even by our standards that's a decent sized carrot. Like a giant balloon bursting in here, the realisation has set home that all of these background signals have been over-ridden or not worked out in our favour, for whatever reason. Other than location, is there a specific science that ensures the weather returns to the climatological norm in this country even in the face of some positive background features (Although I say that, the background and MJO etc, quite frequently flatter to deceive and rarely effect our weather positively). Whatever happens, time is very much running out on anything even remotely festive. ENS, OPS and all models are trending into an Atlantic driven, very wet, very soggy, windy and potentially very mild spell. Just in time for Santa. Fantastic. I can't be the only person really struggling with the entire UK climate at the moment? It's genuinely curbing my enthusiasm towards meteorology. Such a boring, mundane, slow, long and miserable climate we live in these days and that includes these now abysmal, hot and sticky summers that start in April and end in October. Desperately hoped the likes of @CreweCold would be correct this year, there is nothing better than a cold Christmas. However for now December 2020 will go down as the month that followed 2020 as a whole; Mild, boring, mundane, miserable, long. Would be very interested in an update from those confident on a cold spell a few days ago. No updates/messages since.
  25. I pointed this out numerous times in the last week or so and absolutely nothing has changed my mind. We have missed any front loaded winter. The Atlantic has been 'shut out' and favourable patterns have been loading into the NH since. The issue is, we need every single ingredient to go in our favour, whereas the reality is, it's constantly been 8/10 or 9/10. We unfortunately, are not New England or Upstate New York, our yearly snow average is not 70-100" - when any sort of opportunity arises, you HAVE to take it. Unlike that kind of location where snow opportunities arise every 10 days if one is a failure. Needing to wait for weeks or even months for an opportunity to fall nicely into place does not work for our tiny island. If we miss our chance, that can be it for weeks on end and indeed - can be our only realistic chance in peak winter. To summarise our winter's I came up with a little analogy; We are the lowly league two club, playing away in the FA Cup against Man City. They have a good team out. The game starts and the mentality amongst all of our players is 'put everything in, its likely we are going to get hammered but on that tiny off chance day we could perhaps escape with something'. It's the 40th minute and City's best defender is off injured. We have just strung a couple of minutes of possession together and the opposition are missing a defender. We finally pick a through ball and jeez, it's so close but it's just out of reach of our striker. The ball is swept up into the keepers arms. The keeper waits for 10 seconds, City take their shape and the defender comes back on. Regardless of how good our little spell on the ball was, the final ball just had too much pace on it. Now, that's perhaps not the final opportunity we will get, but you know and the players know it's going to be a case of chasing shadows and avoiding conceding too many from this moment on. Moral of the story.....when the odds are stacked against you to nearly every level (much like the Atlantic bias there is for our little island) you only get a tiny number of chances and if you don't take them, it might be a very long time before you get another. Flooding looks likely to be more of the headline maker than Freeze as we head to the festive period.
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