cowdog

It does look to be a tad further south than predicted, so far. Really nasty over Cornwall / Devon and South Wales on the radar.

Dvorak had dropped to 6.5~ range, but looking at the sat images it looks finally to be finishing its monstrous eye wall replacement and already the wind field seems to have massively expanded as a result. Dvorak is now at a Raw of 6.8, and I would guess its going to rise further assuming the EWRC finishes. Would imagine there are a lot of people in Asia praying it doesn't finish this EWRC. Is there any record for the largest eye size? As the resulting eye could end up being a contender if there is.

I love weather, but this thing scares me. It could well end up being the second most powerful typhoon on record, given how much potential it has for further strengthening.

Looking at the sat IR imagery it looks like she has gone through a very quick eye wall replacement cycle and therefore has probably increased in strength. Could well see its now around Cat 5 speeds already, combined with its size this is going to be devastating if it doesn't weaken.

Going to be flash floods somewhere today. Very heavy rain here and looking at the radar some places are getting it worse. Just checked Met have all of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire under a weather warning till 10pm, for Lightning + heavy rain Lightning currently only over North-North Yorkshire and near Hull, but given the progress etc expect that to move towards West Yorkshire soon.

32.8C already

Could you have ever imagined where people would be wanting just even a small shower to happen. This really is a very odd situation we are in, and if the models are correct no real end in sight for at least a few weeks.

Dark clouds forming overhead. Looks like rain maybe coming!

Rain widely across the region at the moment, with a very nasty band of it near South Yorkshire, no lightning strikes reported yet - but it is very early so unlikely.

Most of the region is under warnings for tomorrow - thunderstorms and heavy rain. We have missed out so far on the Lightning guess that is finally going to change.

Looking at maps of 'public' weather stations it might. While the data from them is often la la, they do show that the SE has warmed up even more with now most of the ones around London showing around 30c on the Mets own public station list - http://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/ Indicates its probably going to get in the 29's somewhere.

If that was in January people would be over joyed, can't imagine there will be many people being glad that the Met is predicted cold and snow for April though! Can snow in May here though, so we are not over with Winter till then.

Yeah, god knows how you could measure this. On our flat areas on our fields we have 0 snow, and its really similar to the pictures of the Siberian Tundra, but anywhere that has a divet or a slope is covered in snow. Drifts over 2 foot in places but they are also random.

CMC has been beating it a lot in the verification stats lately, so its arguable its the 4th best model. Really is a joke how poorly funded it has become and with no sign that will change.

Hills around Whitby are getting a pasting again. Really does seem to be the spot to be if you want to live on the East Coast, yet still have snow. Pity its transport links are almost none existent so living there has to be a pain.