cowdog

The Aurora's last night got within spitting distance of the UK. Peak of their southerly push is meant to be Saturday night and they might even get in to England. For the projected track / current observation of the Aurora - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast NOAA is predicting a significant amount of the US states will see it on Saturday its going to be that far South, if their predictions are correct. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g2-moderate-watch-effect-23-march-2019-utc-day

Seems to be Flood Warnings all down the Calder valley. Put it in perspective though e.g. Hebden Bridge is forecast to go above 2.2m, Boxing Day 2015 it went to 3.63m. Its a flood but a minor one thankfully, so the centers should be spared.

Flooding in Colne and Earby supposedly. Nothing like the Boxing day floods, but then again that was akin to the sea being literally dumped on to our part of the Pennines and unlikely to be repeated any time soon.

Weather Warnings from Skipton to Keswick for the next 4 days - due the Heavy Rain that is due on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. 60mm probable Tuesday, similar amount Thursday and then a top up on Friday. If the forecasts come true there is likelihood of widespread flooding as everywhere is already completely sodden, so the water will just run straight off.

The Met Office have issued a new warning for rain (Cumbria down to almost Bradford) and also extended the wind warning further North and made it now start at 21:00 on Tuesday. Rain warning is expected as the ground is completely sodden so any rain fall is going to go straight into the streams and rivers, note the rain warning is from Midnight tonight through to midday tomorrow.

Think they name them when their is a possibility of it being name worthy. This one is almost certainly going to be name worthy though, as well as the wind which is likely to warrant an Amber for somewhere, there is the rain which is going to be heavy. Combine the large rain falls with very wet ground and its likely going to cause flooding somewhere.

Really stormy last night, moved a lot of the kids outside toys around no large branches brought down though. Concerned for later in the week, Wednesday keeps being shown as very high rainfall totals - the kind of totals that can cause flooding around here. I am keeping a close eye on that. After that we get a few days grace and then the cold moves in along with likely snow.

Heavy snow now, but that rain earlier combined with temp around 1.5C means its only settling on grass.

Now turned back to snow here, finally.

Its a cover all bases warning i.e. put it anywhere that any model they use has shown snow What is surprising is the Northern extent it covers all our region and a fair bit above.

Its not even snowing on higher ground here, snow has gone even from the 500m hill tops. Has just turned to a sleet mixture though, so might turn back to snow 'soon'. Ignore what the radar snow overlay is saying, its wrong with this one.

My thoughts are similar, but further to that anything south of Warwickshire will be rain, 850's just wont be high enough to support snow further south without a 'miracle'; its making the Southern thread very amusing to read as they are in for a shock.

Thought would have been here by now, but it is really hard to judge its progression SE via the radar. Had 1cm of snow last night, all from that heavy shower that started at 21:30

Might want to keep an eye on the radar tonight of you on the western edges of the region / high Pennines, as heavy showers are looking possible. Snow showers are likely to stay that way for the next few days irrespective of the front(s) tomorrow. Met Office web site now has us listing as Heavy Snow from 9pm tonight, due to this shower activity. Won't get much into the region but they usually make it to Bradford.

Just to show you the difference being on the top of the Pennines makes in this setup - 20 miles between Oldfield and Leeds.