BlueHedgehog074

It may not be like that all day, it’s nice to see some of this colour above this morning: A lot better (personally) than seeing this above all the time: Something that’s been apparent for lots of us during most of this month.

Would have probably gone for May too. But as a totally random guess, will go for April 17th at 5:33pm. To occur over Somerset.

A little look on this particular day, the models show a little ridge to the South-West of the UK nudging North-East through the Southern areas bringing some dry weather and some sunny spells. At the same time, the Low in the Atlantic will be extending its arm East towards the North-West of the UK carrying a spell of rain East through Ireland during the early to mid afternoon, then onto Western areas of Scotland and Northern England during the evening and night (perhaps brushing through Northern parts of Wales also). A bit of rain/showers across the South-East this morning too, which should vanish into the afternoon. A chilly start for many this morning, particularly across North-Western areas and South Eastern parts of Ireland but warming up a bit into the afternoon and through into the evening. Temperatures just reaching double figures for some in Central and Southern parts of England. And particularly over some North-Eastern parts near(ish) the coastal areas. Suspect the tall hills/mountains to the West providing particular shelter for North-Eastern parts from the Westerly/North-Westerly breezes and where sunshine levels could be at their best. Looks to remain cooler for most in the West and North, but still temperatures could get into the fairly high single figures in parts. In the sunny spells, it could feel quite pleasant despite the breeze. Despite the spell of rain for North-Western areas (and even then, dry for many most of the morning), it looks to be a reasonable day for the Mamma’s out there. Though whether sunshine, cloud or rain, may you and your ladies have a… And hope for those where this day could be difficult, that you are able to find peace and comfort (we appreciate it won’t be an easy day for all, but will be by your side)

I can see why the radar seems ominous around Solihull with these clouds above/close by

Been quite a few potent little showers breaking through this afternoon (one with hail). Really been some nice, decorative, convective skies around. Reached up to 15*C. Even with the showers, there has been a real feeling of Spring in the air. Mild enough to just about get away with not wearing a thick jumper or coat.

Hopefully this will be the start of what’s to come for us/storm enthusiasts throughout Spring and Summer.

Clearance of the shower to the East.

Absolutely just smashed it down with hail at Hillier’s/Rosebourne near Balsall Common (while visiting!). Just as heavy as some of the thundery downpours in Summer.

I can kinda understand needing the wet weather at the moment, but already getting pretty fed up of it. The snow last week was nice, mind, but a few mild, sunny, days would just be great right now. If there was a guarantee, however, April this year was a brighter, less unsettled (or drier) month, I could perhaps put up with with the next 2 weeks bringing further damp conditions.

Must say, that is quite a decent area of precipitation out West: Hopefully holds together as it shifts further East/South-East.

It’ll always be in our hearts

A little peak at the models for Tuesday mid day this week, they set free a chilly North-Westerly over the UK. This of which dragging some pretty cold 850 hPa temperatures and low heights and thicknesses (via the UK/Western Scandinavian trough) further South/South-East: 06Z GFS 0Z ECMWF 0Z UKMO 0Z GEM 06Z ICON Still could bring some blowy weather, particularly early on into Tuesday, Isobars quite tight over the UK above. A chance for this to bring some squally wintry showers and some squally areas of rain, sleet and snow as Monday’s Low escapes into the North Sea. Some models above, such as the UKMO and ECMWF, look a touch flatter with the North-Westerly for Tuesday, particularly towards the Southern part of the UK. Seems to depend really as to the speed that Atlantic/Azores ridge builds in from the South-West and how it tries to dislodge the North-Westerly flow into, and through, Wednesday. The -5*C 850 hPa temperature line struggles to get to the far South-West of the UK on the ECMWF which could make showers less wintry, except perhaps over the hills, such as those in Dartmoor. The GFS and GEM perhaps the most amplified with the North-Westerly on Tuesday, but overall when looking at the above charts there’s not much give or take to it. It could be fair to say GFS is the most ambitious with how far South it floods those cold 850 hPa temperatures reaching Northern France! (The GFS, however, can be prone I feel to overdoing the cold depth of the 850 hPa temperatures a little). Having said that, it looks to be a day of wintry showers for places, particularly over North-Western areas and over high ground to the North and West. Some are likely to stream South-East through the Cheshire Gap ganging up on the Midlands too - especially Northern parts of the Midlands from the charts above that show more of a West-North-Westerly flow over the Southern/Central parts of the UK. With the strengthening March sunshine, some could pop up inland, plus with the heights being low, especially further North over the UK, some of these wintry showers are likely to be beefy. These bringing snow across the hills, and to lower levels at times too, particularly Midlands Northwards, although I expect there to be some sleet, hail and graupel showers in the mix as well. While it looks to be a cold and, at times, blustery day, where the sun shines between the showers it could feel fairly pleasant. Some places, perhaps more so down the fairly far South, may miss a lot of the showers. It is also worth saying that with many of the operational models above showing some kinks and little troughs in the flow, there could be a chance of more organised wintry showers and longer spells of sleet and snow sinking South through parts of the UK during Tuesday. It may not be a Northerly/North-Westerly flow of -10*C hPa temperatures (with far North-West of Scotland maybe having a chance to get into the -10*C’s briefly), but that day does provide a chance for a return of wintry weather. For a North-Westerly, it looks to be a rather potent one. One that could bring a good amount of interest. As well as some of the strong winds it’s likely to bring earlier on in the day. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98485-model-output-discussion-snow-watch-limited-edition/?do=findComment&comment=4830919

A little peak at the models for Tuesday mid day this week, they set free a chilly North-Westerly over the UK. This of which dragging some pretty cold 850 hPa temperatures and low heights and thicknesses (via the UK/Western Scandinavian trough) further South/South-East: 06Z GFS 0Z ECMWF 0Z UKMO 0Z GEM 06Z ICON Still could bring some blowy weather, particularly early on into Tuesday, Isobars quite tight over the UK above. A chance for this to bring some squally wintry showers and some squally areas of rain, sleet and snow as Monday’s Low escapes into the North Sea. Some models above, such as the UKMO and ECMWF, look a touch flatter with the North-Westerly for Tuesday, particularly towards the Southern part of the UK. Seems to depend really as to the speed that Atlantic/Azores ridge builds in from the South-West and how it tries to dislodge the North-Westerly flow into, and through, Wednesday. The -5*C 850 hPa temperature line struggles to get to the far South-West of the UK on the ECMWF which could make showers less wintry, except perhaps over the hills, such as those in Dartmoor. The GFS and GEM perhaps the most amplified with the North-Westerly on Tuesday, but overall when looking at the above charts there’s not much give or take to it. It could be fair to say GFS is the most ambitious with how far South it floods those cold 850 hPa temperatures reaching Northern France! (The GFS, however, can be prone I feel to overdoing the cold depth of the 850 hPa temperatures a little). Having said that, it looks to be a day of wintry showers for places, particularly over North-Western areas and over high ground to the North and West. Some are likely to stream South-East through the Cheshire Gap ganging up on the Midlands too - especially Northern parts of the Midlands from the charts above that show more of a West-North-Westerly flow over the Southern/Central parts of the UK. With the strengthening March sunshine, some could pop up inland, plus with the heights being low, especially further North over the UK, some of these wintry showers are likely to be beefy. These bringing snow across the hills, and to lower levels at times too, particularly Midlands Northwards, although I expect there to be some sleet, hail and graupel showers in the mix as well. While it looks to be a cold and, at times, blustery day, where the sun shines between the showers it could feel fairly pleasant. Some places, perhaps more so down the fairly far South, may miss a lot of the showers. It is also worth saying that with many of the operational models above showing some kinks and little troughs in the flow, there could be a chance of more organised wintry showers and longer spells of sleet and snow sinking South through parts of the UK during Tuesday. It may not be a Northerly/North-Westerly flow of -10*C hPa temperatures (with far North-West of Scotland maybe having a chance to get into the -10*C’s briefly), but that day does provide a chance for a return of wintry weather. For a North-Westerly, it looks to be a rather potent one. One that could bring a good amount of interest. As well as some of the strong winds it’s likely to bring earlier on in the day.

That snow is a fighter to the end! (Just the very odd bit here trying to hold on ).

Yep, 5*C warmer than Polar Maritime’s dew point. Was nice to see a touch of wintriness earlier

Must have been a bit of evaporative cooling that took affect and the time of day. Wet drizzly rain now. Something whiter on Tuesday, hopefully.

Interestingly some sleety blobs mixed in with the rain in Solihull now. (Some landed on my arm in icy bits). Tuesday though does look interesting.

Feeling the same way as Polar Maritime regarding looking forward to some warm/very mild Spring weather soon. Has not felt like it since March started, although to be fair March can still be quite a wintry month (as we know how the last few days have been ). The fact this cold spell has been coming with snow has made it very enjoyable. Some snow remaining on the ground this morning and some fairly light frost in parts making the landscapes look glistening. I think after today’s rain, sleet or snow (encouraging that it’s currently snowing in South Wales), and some beefy wintry showers via the possible high quality North-Westerly flow on Tuesday, then a spell of warmer, drier/less unsettled, weather would be nice. Would also be okay with a brief wintry blast later into the month or early April for the sake of variety.

I think that would be a great idea. Something there for those who would prefer a more focused view of the models alongside this thread. Edit: @matt111 Doesn’t look like it will arrive until Tuesday You’ll just have to come up North for it for the time being Have to admit, did well here. Some rain Thursday afternoon and night, otherwise 3 days worth of snow fall.

There is a chance of this thread not getting the chop in spite of it being a limited edition. It seems people are having a grand time with it. Just like the snow in the strong sunshine, we wouldn’t want to melt away the enjoyment those are experiencing with this place. What we may very well do is whenever weather events turn up - further cold/snowy spells, hot spells, windstorms, thunderstorms, drought, flooding etc, we could change the latter part of the thread title to reflect it. E.g: Model Output Discussion - Thunderstorm Watch (or Thunderstorm Tracker), Model Output Discussion - Wind Watch (or Gale Gazers), or something more general such as Model Output Discussion - Weather Watch. @matt111 Have no fear, we’ll send some in the mail for you. Ultra fast first class delivery so it hopefully won’t melt

Amusingly, 100m elevation is exactly what I have (up to 128m(ish) in the town Centre itself). Sounds like you did better than here being a bit further East with this morning’s snowfall, which gave around 2 to 3cm here. Still pretty good considering how Winter had gone, especially for March. I guess you were probably under slightly heavier precipitation on average, though that extra 47m of elevation must have helped. Just astounded the differences local variations and heights can make to snowfall and depth. Someone just half a mile away could have inches of the stuff, while someone else nearby could only have a slushy dusting.

A chance of a wintry mix tomorrow too: Probably won’t lead to much, with high ground seeing the best of the snow (but could still be some flakes to lower levels, particularly in heavier precipitation). Has been a good few days overall for the sparkly stuff. Ruined a bit by the rain yesterday afternoon and night - not enough however to make it a terrible event. With the snow back for revenge this morning, there was a happy ending.

Just had a look out the window… It’s back!

A lot of snowy goodness right there

You better watch out, rain! The snow will be coming back down from the North to knock ya down! Teach you a lesson for the chaos you have created. (I hope).