[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Changed the title for now, but we’ll probably try getting a new one up and rolling later. Did feel tempted to put Spring Has Sprung and then the phrase, (Or Has It?), because of how rubbish (bar a few odd brighter periods) the weather has been

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

As some kind of spot of comfort regarding a more settled and warmer pattern, the GEM for 2 runs in a row now ridges in an area of the Azores High over to the UK toward the day 10 period:

12Z GEM from yesterday:

00Z GEM from this morning:

Warm during the day and a chance for things to dry out a bit more. Feels like trying to grab onto straws I admit as it’s really the only model that’s being the most optimistic about it. Though nice to see it on 2 of the runs, still.

This seems to hinge on that narrow, vertical, ridge in the Northern mid to Western Atlantic (circled below) and the way Low Pressure drops to the South of the UK between that and the European ridge to the East over the nearby continent. 

 

That little Low dropping South of the UK towards Iberia allows the doorway for the Northern mid Atlantic/Azores ridge to sneak into the UK. 

Closer to the time, there’s no guarantees the ridge in the mid Atlantic/Azores area will end up being like that (if it ends up existing at all). Depending on your weather preferences, would have to hope that models such as the GFS are handling the pattern into next week incorrectly, as you can see below the GFS has the ridging to our West/South-West over the Northern Atlantic much flatter and the Lows just roll over the top of it (although it does kinda seem on its own with the flatness in that area this morning):

So can kinda understand the concerns of the post above. But would say it’s not a resolved resolution yet. I mean, personally, it would be nice to break out of the invasion of the Low Pressure systems and see some proper, drier, weather. It’s not like it can last like this forever

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Does seem to be some kind of attempt from a number of the operational models to shift the string of UK Low Pressure this week somewhat further to the West and North into the weekend and beyond, along with some of the blocking around the Greenland area losing its power. So kinda allowing more from the European and/or Azores ridging to try take some visits to the UK.

After all the Spring months November so far seems to have gobbled up, even including April this morning (cloudy and damp), you would imagine a change to a less wet/more settled spell to take over at some point. So I’m sorry November, you can’t have April in your stomach forever. And even if April does stay remaining trapped in November’s stomach, I’d like to see it try and swallow up May.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Yep, pretty dull and misty this morning. Was hoping to wake up to some sunshine (I guess at least it’s dry for now). Yesterday, though, was a pretty decent day. Pretty good spells of sunshine, albeit a fair amount of cloud too. Pleasant enough. How cool if it could have lasted for longer and that the rain and showers for next week was just something that only happened in a dream… 

I hope everyone has a nice Easter

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

Really is some lovely cloudscapes and rainbows with some of these. This facing towards Coventry way from the Birmingham and Coventry shower that’s just gone through here. 

[Midlands regional discussion - Spring 2024]

 Midlands Ice Age Hi Midlands Ice Age, hope you’re doing well.

Been a hectic few months, so just went into hiding for a while. 

Solihull sunshine shield looks to have powered up for the moment, but hopefully will break again later into the afternoon, maybe still with the chance of a few storm shields exploding!

[Model discussion highlights]

I think the below would explain the sleet and snow reports for some of you in the South-West of the UK, even for lower levels.

Using examples at both 10pm and 11pm on the 18Z GFS, it has places such as Devon just on the Western flank of the little circular disturbance/Low drifting North from the main Low to the South-West of Ireland. It also means some of you guys down South-West end up being under somewhat colder 850 hPa temperatures between -1*C to -3*C. That, along with the precipitation being particularly heavy towards Western/South-Western parts of the UK (as well as the fact that the temperatures at the 500 hPa level are very cold with those blues and purples - essentially a very deep upper trough) is likely aiding in dragging down freezing air to low levels in some places, thus the surprise sleet and snow some of you are getting. Especially over higher ground. Though I don’t consider myself to be an expert, that’s probably the reason for it.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5052092

[Midlands regional discussion - Spring 2024]

Definitely nice to wake up to this morning. Still a lot of blue sky and sunshine about now. Despite feeling chilly feels like a proper Spring morning, which is good to see. A chance of some showers, possibly with hail and thunder later (which is at least at lot more exciting than grey, general, prolonged spell of rain or drizzle).

Still be nice to see some proper settled warmer weather break out at some point. Make countryside walks become more of a joy so wouldn’t need to walk in lots of mud and puddles all the time.  Just a shame the models look uninspiring at the moment for settled, warmer weather, bar perhaps the odd drier day or two, particularly later into the Easter weekend. Surely, the models would get to a point where they just couldn’t get any worse in terms of unsettled and Low Pressure dominated conditions (am looking at you, Northern blocking) that some better runs for less unsettled conditions would start showing up. Just some teases of High Pressure building strongly over Europe and into the UK would be nice, lol, that would then hope becomes a reality. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I think the below would explain the sleet and snow reports for some of you in the South-West of the UK, even for lower levels.

Using examples at both 10pm and 11pm on the 18Z GFS, it has places such as Devon just on the Western flank of the little circular disturbance/Low drifting North from the main Low to the South-West of Ireland. It also means some of you guys down South-West end up being under somewhat colder 850 hPa temperatures between -1*C to -3*C. That, along with the precipitation being particularly heavy towards Western/South-Western parts of the UK (as well as the fact that the temperatures at the 500 hPa level are very cold with those blues and purples - essentially a very deep upper trough) is likely aiding in dragging down freezing air to low levels in some places, thus the surprise sleet and snow some of you are getting. Especially over higher ground. Though I don’t consider myself to be an expert, that’s probably the reason for it.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

For a time, today felt nice with some bright and at times, sunny, weather. Really felt quite April-esque. Admittedly it didn’t last as the heavens opened in the late afternoon and towards the evening (but even then, I expected it was going to rain by mid-afternoon), so weather’s been a little better today than expected. Just pretty rubbish tonight, though

Haven’t got the best of memories, but May and June in this part last year seemed bright and sunny for the most part. In fact, as a late-Spring and early Summer month, June 2023 was overall decent. 

[April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

8.5*C and 90mm, please. Likely cool and wet at the start (perhaps with something wintry), but am hoping High Pressure will eventually give the Atlantic Lows a good pounding and bring a long spell of drier, warmer weather. Also with just the odd monstrous thunderstorm thrown in. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

London seems to be one of the few places where the weather is working correctly at the moment

I think we will have to accept that the weather engineers for some of us others are having problems restoring our faulty weather. Either that, or the weather engineers just aren’t doing a good enough job with the repairs.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Metwatch Is one thing I would have to give last March credit for was the few snowy days near the beginning of the month. Bringing a good few cm’s of snow outside of the main Winter months. Not something that’s happened this March (apart from a bit of sleet in the afternoon of Saturday 2nd).

Considering how cool March was last year throughout the month, some of the recent milder weather has personally made for a nice change. But I do agree it would be great if it was accompanied by more sunshine. 

Briefly, the sun had tried to break through the white thing above about 20 minutes ago, but it looks like it’s gone back into hiding with a few thicker patches of clouds trying to take over

 Methuselah Yeah, looks like Winter wants to break out of the cage that Spring’s been somewhat attempting to keep locked away inside for the first part of this week. At least for some of us. But Spring needs to use sturdier locks on the door so Winter stays locked up in the cage. (Though am not totally against seeing the odd further cold blast or two if they were potent enough to bring some snow with it before it was too late). 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 *Stormforce~beka* To be fair, it’s been quite gloomy for longer than that (edit: aside from a few recent fairly bright afternoons), although there was a quite a nice, sunny, spell, around mid-January with some generally clear skies for a few days. But some proper dry, sunnier weather is definitely overdue. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 B87 That would be nice. Something to really make up for the (mostly) bleak weather that’s raided the last few or so weeks 

[Midlands regional discussion - Spring 2024]

It has been one of the pluses of the last few days with the very mild feel of the days. While not lasting for the whole afternoon during the last few days, some of the sunny, brighter spells have been welcome. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

If March doesn’t want to, then I hope April comes armed with an absolutely ginormous axe and strike the rock-solid sun and dry weather shields that have been dominant for a number of us in here. 

Despite that, some of the afternoons in the last few days have at least brought some brighter spells at times kinda helping making things feel like Spring. Some of the thorn bushes (particularly the Hawthorn/Crataegus) are really greening up well in some places too. Even one or two of the bigger trees like the sycamore are starting to open up its leaves with some golden colours showing through.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

A spell of drier, more High Pressured dominated weather would be very welcome to be honest, as it seems the Atlantic Lows just want to keep invading the scene. 

Even though the models are picking up a chillier Polar Maritime/Arctic Maritime flow coming in between the North-West and North during, and throughout, the weekend, it should bring some brighter weather conditions with it, especially towards Eastern areas of the UK. (However, showers could become a bit more concentrated towards Eastern parts on Sunday with the possibility of the flow turning more North-North-Westerly to Northerly).

So, showers would be the feature of this setup along with the sunny spells. And with the strong March sunshine it could fuel some quite beefy showers at times. Wintry for the hills and possibility to some lower levels, too, particularly during Saturday, as models in various forms, especially the GFS, show a strip of -5/-6*C 850 hPa temperatures filtering East through parts of the UK from the Northern Atlantic:

So showers of rain, sleet, graupel and particularly over high ground/hills, snow, between Friday (perhaps with some morning rain lingering for a time over Central and/or South-Eastern/Eastern areas beforehand on Friday) and Sunday. Again can imagine there would be some decent sunny spells between at times, and away from the chilly wind, it could feel reasonably pleasant/Spring-like in the sunshine. (Although you may still need to wrap up, somewhat, particularly those exposed to the winds over over Western/North-Western areas and over high ground )

(Formerly DiagonalRedLine)

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

A little fun tease regarding the 00Z GEM, but it manages to drag a little patch of -5*C 850 hPa temperatures over the London area during early Sunday morning via the Easterly/North-Easterly flow. The Eastern spot of Kent and the Eastern tip of Scotland also gets in on the -5*C 850 hPa temperature action. 

[Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023]

Must admit, I thought the skies, at least especially earlier today, looked very convective looking. Although when it become all grey and rainy here this afternoon I just thought it would just be a general spell of rain until, like a few others, a few odd rumbles of thunder suddenly came unexpectedly. Including the odd lightning flash too!

Looking at the radar though, it looks like there’s some particularly angry looking showers to the South and East of here. 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

You’re not alone, had heard a few odd rumbles too on the Eastern side of town with one or two flashes at the corner of my eye, even! Must have been from that particularly intense strip of heavy rain that blasted through Coventry. Wonder if Metwatch and CoventryWeather saw/heard some

[Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards]

13 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Another pixel of snow in southern Ireland but this time from this evening's ECM for next Wednesday. A small but tight low slides through the channel. (highly unlikely to take place as always at this time frame)

I'm not sure when the first snow occurs there and other stats like that, but the peaks reach 800-1000m in southern Ireland so maybe not overly surprising? Early October is quite early in the autumn though.

Amusing to see, he hee! Does seem early, but certainly over very high ground it could be possible. The very heavy precipitation over that spot on that ECMWF run would have likely to have aided in evaporative cooling too. 

It reminds me of the snow we had in October. The one where a spell of heavy rain pushed down from the North/West on Tuesday 28th October 2008 during the afternoon. Then transitioned fairly quickly into heavy sleet and snow as the cold Northerly flow sneaked in. Managed to put down a cm or 2 of the white stuff on the ground. The fact that even London had snow that also settled made it particularly impressive. Something will never forget.

[Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023]

Got woken up last night to a few bright flashes, rumbles and high quality rain. Nothing too remarkable and intense like some had, but got caught off guard by it. 

One of those cases it feels like where you think nothing will happen, and it does. And when you think something will happen, it doesn’t

[Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023]

Mostly general cloud up North on the way back home down South from Edinburgh, but hopefully some thundery fun for some, especially those of you over to the East and South (particularly with one or 2 current reports of thunder and torrential rain). 

[Sept Heatwave poll]

I could have also imagined a prolonged spell of fiery temperatures during July had this setup occurred around then. Would have got a little hot for my liking, though, but something I would have likely chosen over the chilly, wet, conditions that dominated most of July. Especially also if you could have guaranteed it came with less humidity. That part I think is the most challenging. Plus, the heat last year did get a little much sometimes, as interesting as it was to also experience.

As it is, the overall bright and at times (despite not constantly) sunny conditions this spell continues to bring has been nice in that it’s made it feel as though Summer wants to hold on. The sunshine has kinda been like medicine for my depression and lonely-like feelings, and good for some, mostly shady, walks. Lower humidity and slightly lower temperatures nevertheless would have made it feel more comfortable, particularly at night to make sleeping somewhat more effortless.