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DiagonalRedLine

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DiagonalRedLine last won the day on September 19 2018

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About DiagonalRedLine

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    Old Name: Rainbow Snow

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    Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
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    Weather/Nature, Walks, Cycling, Reading Comics, Video Games (particularly Nintendo), TV, Media, Shopping and Twist and Pulse.
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    Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow

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  1. For a number of the cold and snow enthusiasts in here, this likely would have been more satisfying. Though clearly the long range Winter charts aren’t a complete guarantee of what could really happen. At the same time, there’s always a chance that those, such as the Glosea season model, could turn out to be accurate (or at least quite close to the mark). Would be ideal not to get too hung up on them though.
  2. Though it’s the NAVGEM (the model we all love or loathe...), its 00Z run at 168 to 180 hours doesn’t look as though it would follow along the path of the 00Z ECMWF at 192 hours: NAVGEM 00Z Some heights getting sucked up to the North of the UK with some Low Pressure sitting about to the South East over Northern France. Further under-cutting possibilities to the West in the Atlantic, and as such, seems to be on the GFS’s team. Although posted earlier on, the 00Z ECMWF at 168 and 192 hours as a comparison: More organised Low in the Atlantic to the West of the UK with a milder/less cool South-Westerly flow. NAVGEM only goes out to the 180 hour mark, so the comparison may not be totally fair. Still looks different to the ECMWF overall. Certainly more adjustments and changes to come I suspect, but pleasurable model watching currently.
  3. Fair enough And true, since it’s likely to change on next run.
  4. A pretty respectable ECMWF run for those who like the chilly conditions. Maybe a bit of a drier, less unsettled break between 168 to 192 hours, as the run throws up a triangular ridge North and North-Eastwards through Western UK. A bit of breathing-space from all the wet weather that’s gone on (though there may be some showers, possibly wintry on high ground, over Eastern UK) Another thing to add - regarding those Norwegian Sea isobar kinks and shortwaves feb1991blizzard was talking about earlier on the 12Z GFS, this is what would need to be watched out for: The black circle marking out the kinks and developing shortwaves in the Easterly to North-Easterly flow on that run. This then developing into a more circular closed off Low Pressure system to the North of Scotland submerging the Easterly to its doom. These kinks/shortwaves, when they behave themselves (which could be quite rare), can... 1). Bring organised areas of sleet and snows showers, or longer spells of sleet and snow. But they can also... 1). Destroy Easterlies 2). Steal the wintry weather fans’ snow and deep cold 3). Cause laptops to be thrown out of windows
  5. Bit odd. That chart would seem to go generally against what the Met Office text summary mentions tomorrow for the West Midlands. Have a feeling the rain (possibly sleet), will likely reach our areas. But does still seem to be a little bit of uncertainty tomorrow still regarding the Eastwards progression of tomorrow’s rain (possibly sleet, but might be mostly for high ground). Would be happy if it stayed dry, though, especially if the rain wasn’t wintry at all lol
  6. A summary of the models: The next few days looks as though it will continue rather chilly and unsettled, especially for Northern areas of the UK. Various models showing the continuation of Low Pressure systems from our West in the Atlantic squeezing East/South-Eastwards through the UK against the blocking to our North and North-East and the Azores High to the South-West. GFS 18Z used as an example: Some brighter, drier breaks are likely between the Low Pressure systems. There is also a likelihood these Low Pressure systems will take more of a Northerly track for a time early next week, as shown in the bottom few GFS charts above. In a way, thanks to some somewhat lower heights spilling into the Atlantic area, which appears to be bringing some stronger Lows through to the North of the UK. Still looking cool with the Jet Stream seemingly angled from a North-West to South-East direction through the UK with the Lows dragging in some chilly North-Westerly Polar Maritime flows. Having the Azores High exhibiting some reasonable amplification giving a hand in this. The upcoming Saturday could certainly provide some wintry interest, as a front from a weakening approaching Low to the West of the UK disrupts and becomes slow moving against the cold air over us, more particularly Northern UK. Although the event is under 2 days away, it’s not totally clear how far East or North-Eastwards the front could get. But most areas away from the far North-East could see a spell of rain, sleet or snow. The sleet or snow most likely over high ground over Northern UK, but this could get to some lower levels at times. Maybe even a bit of sleet as far South as the Midlands under any heavier bursts. The slack flow would probably encourage this too. However, when seeing what the 850 hPa temperatures are like for Saturday lunch time, you can see the GFS is being the most generous with those colder upper temperatures (first chart below) compared to the likes of the ECMWF, GEM and ICON. Which suggests to me it might be over doing how widespread those -5*C 850 hPa temperatures are for mid day Saturday. It would, however, likely paint the wintriest scenario for Saturday. May be a day which churns out a few surprises for the snow weather fans. Again, snow likely to fall on higher ground and over hills to the North and over the Welsh mountains. But still wouldn’t rule out some sleet/sleety rain over some areas of the Midlands, perhaps Eastern Wales, and some wet snow over lowish ground in Northern England and Scotland. Later into next week, there could be a tendency for the South-Easterly, or Easterly, tracking Lows to drop to the South/South East of the UK into mainland Europe again bringing in a chilly flow from the East or North-East through the UK. Examples from the 12Z ECMWF, 12Z GEM and 12Z GFS at 192 hours: The GEM having the deepest Low over and to the South-West of the UK. Consequently the only model at the time-frame of the 3, which doesn’t drop the Low as far East to the South of the UK when looking at both the GFS and the ECMWF. It’s not certain how far South or East these Lows next week could get - they could become slow moving and stay as still as a statue over the UK, or take a more Northerly route. The ICON 12Z, while not going any further than 180 hours, does drop Low Pressure to the South of the UK with upper and surface heights building over the top. Therefore, similar to the charts above: (Edit: not sure how it happened, but apologies for the underlining): It’s another model that has a deepish Low that drops more to the South-West of the UK to pull in more of a South-Easterly/Easterly-South-Easterly flow. Really, for those after some deeper, cold, conditions, it’s best if the Lows dropped more directly to the South-East of the UK towards that Northern or Western Italy spot. This can assist in pulling in a cold flow from the North-East, but it does help to have High Pressure to the North or North-East orientated favourably to squeeze some very, cold, air towards the UK from the Scandinavia or Russia areas. I feel there is a pretty good chance of Low Pressure next week dropping far enough South to pull in a chilly feed from the East. It’s not a definite scenario being a fair few days away. Also uncertain exactly where Low Pressure could drop over to our South (if it gets there at all not filling too quickly). As some illustrated yesterday, this would, in some ways, depend how much amplification develops upstream in the Atlantic. This could help as forcing to get Low Pressure to drop to the South or East of us. Though it does help to have some Low Pressure and upper low heights in Europe for Low Pressure to run into. I would also be happier had the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean below showed a slightly stronger signal for some ridging in the Atlantic at 192 hours... ...as the pattern in that area could turn out a bit flatter than what some operational models are dishing out. These means aren’t always the best to use to draw up an accurate picture of what may happen, mind. It does suggest a continuation of North-West to South-East tracking Lows with a Southerly tracking Jet Stream. But nothing really cold or snowy at the moment. Seems quite likely that the Azores High could remain held out to the South-West of the UK. I remember Phil Nw mentioning having this pushed out to our West/South-West without its ridging getting dragged Eastwards towards our South-East (or East) was one of the important aspects to prevent a South-West to North-Easterly tracking Jet Stream from reoccurring. This of which would bring up milder weather from the South-West. Admittedly, for some, that would be preferable. Tonight’s NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb chart chart continues to maintain Low heights over and to the South of the UK, so probably staying on the cool side. The position of the ridging and higher than average heights to the East and North-East over Europe and Scandinavia would likely mean nothing too cold seems likely, especially from the North-East. Any colder shots from the North-East would likely to be brief to be honest. Worth staying that these anomaly charts are never a 100% guarantee. And I know those such as knocker, John etc, have more experience with these type of charts. Don’t think I’ve been the only one to mention it, but there has been some enjoyable model discussion in here in the last few or so days. Would be good to keep up this sort of thing up throughout Winter (but some odd funny pictures and odd one or two liners are fine as longs as they still describe the chart(s). We appreciate people get really excited by windy, mild, cold and snowy weather and the like)
  7. In a way, while some models seem to sorta push some stronger areas of Low Pressure through over, or to the North of the UK next week onwards (some exceptions like the 00Z GEM which still get Low Pressure South of the UK into mainland Europe), the source of the air generally looks to be from the North-West with frequent Polar Maritime shots. So probably staying cool. In terms of very cold conditions, the models might not be the best. (I suppose hardly anyone was really expecting there to be any really deep, cold, conditions considering the time of year we’re in (though there’s nothing wrong getting excited by the idea of it). It would take quite an exceptional setup to see freezing and snowy conditions. But it’s certainly not unfeasible). I feel the models could be a lot worse - they still show a fair amount of blocking to the North-East with Low Pressure from the West/North-West in the Atlantic showing a fair amount of disruption with more of a North-West to South-East track, maybe at times West to East, rather than a South-West to North-East track. Despite again, the Atlantic and its army of Lows possessing a bit more power this morning. The Polar Vortex in the troposphere level looks rather beaten up, some of it probably helped by some of the blocking the models continue to show to our North-East over/near the Russia area. No super powerful blue and purple demon over Canada or Greenland. At least not yet. However, further models runs could still change this as it can’t be ruled out that the Vortex over that area may be being under-estimated a bit. Always possible that blocking to our North or North-East could lose a lot of its strength and/or get pushed aside too far East for the cold weather enthusiasts to benefit. A difficult achievement to be honest to get Northern blocking constantly throughout the whole of Winter. Not that it can’t happen at all, although you’d probably have better luck winning a Marathon with your eyes closed, while running backwards. I think it can be easy, at least for some of us, including myself, to get sucked into all the dreamy charts the models show deep into there runs and end up focusing too much on what they show. Kinda like what I’ve done just here (). Then end up getting disappointed when they suddenly become less encouraging for the certain weather type we’re after. Even though the general, overall, pattern is the more important rather than the more specific features. At least for the next few days it looks chilly, especially towards Northern UK, and unsettled with a string of Lows to our North-West in the Atlantic tracking South-East against the modest heights to our North. And some of these getting into mainland Europe, while filling out, bringing a mixture of rain, showers - some of which could fall as sleet or snow over high ground to our North, and perhaps to some lower levels. But mostly high-ground. It’s a pattern that may very well continue over the next 2 weeks or so, depending how the weather patterns continue to shape up. It is also possible the Atlantic could show more of it’s fury.
  8. Certainly a lot of great possibilities there. That Vortex looks toast!
  9. Now would be the time to dash to the shop to pick up a box of tissues if you haven’t already - they may be needed for the 12Z ECMWF run. Plus, we've already set up a ginormous settee for you lot to dive behind!
  10. Indeed! Northern areas would likely be in for a brill treat on those charts if it’s the sort of weather you’re after, especially for those on the higher ground. (For a greedy point of view, hope to see even more disruption and even more of a stretchy-ness and negative tilt to that Low on Saturday with a chance of that possible sleet or snow getting further South - such as the Midlands or something )
  11. Noticed the same thing myself. Perhaps the JMA is hiding some ultra cold charts that it doesn’t want us to see... Looks as though the models are continuing to show a generally cool and mostly unsettled theme, particularly for Southern UK. Northern UK likely seeing some wet weather at times, too, with a chance of some high ground sleet or snow, possibly extending to lower levels on occasion. The GFS seems to be fairly consistent with showing some kind of ridging developing in the Mid-Atlantic for next week. It’s last 3 runs being a good example of this. Maybe a chance of dragging down a cold flow from the North, providing Low Pressure does get far enough East or South-East next week, although I suspect the likes of the GFS maybe overdoing amplification in the Atlantic a bit (even though it looks feasible). Clearly though, it is certainly also possible that any blocking to the North/North-East of the UK could become more of a block directly to the East of us and perhaps bring up milder conditions from the South or South-East eventually. Not fully certain, however. I feel like the sort of pattern the models are showing at the moment will bring about a lot of curiosity as to how it continues to develop.
  12. Interestingly, this was what the JMA was showing for around mid day today from around 24th October: A monstrous Low passing to the North of the UK with High Pressure to the South-West. A general West to North-Westerly flow. But, this is what we’ve seemed to have ended up with for today (using today’s 06Z JMA run as an idea): Low Pressure dropping to the South of the UK pulling in a surface flow from the East over most areas (especially Northern parts) and High Pressure to our West/South-West quite amplified. Jet Stream on a more Southerly track too.
  13. Not really much change on the updated 8 to 14 day NOAA/CPC 500mb anomaly chart tonight (which probably was expected). Lower than average heights to the South of the UK with some above average heights East and North-East of Greenland towards Scandinavia. Lower than average heights also to the West of Greenland towards Northern, Central and Eastern Canada, promoting low pressure towards the Western area of the Northern Atlantic. The chart continues to also show a mean, slack, upper flow between the West and North-West over the UK, but a chance it would likely stay rather chilly probably still with Low Pressure areas getting to the South of the UK at times. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Yesterday’s chart below:
  14. Kinda the same on the UKMO 12Z this afternoon at 144 hours. This chart, if it happened a bit later in the year, could make for an appetising Winter chart for those of you snow weather enthusiasts in here, especially if you’re in the North of the UK. Low Pressure clearing to the East of the UK, bringing down a chilly flow from between the North-West, North and North-East.
  15. 12Z ECMWF think it’s going to be Winter at the weekend: ...while the 12Z NAVGEM think it’s going to be Summer... (at least so away from the far North-West) On a personal view, as nice as both scenarios would be, have a feeling the ECMWF will end up being a bit closer to the mark with its chillier outlook (especially with models, such as the GFS, supporting similar ideas).
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