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DiagonalRedLine

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Everything posted by DiagonalRedLine

  1. Regarding that Low Pressure in the Atlantic for early next week, both the ICON and GFS 18Z show how there is likely to be some further changes to the modelling and behaviour of the Low: GFS 18Z at 120 hours ICON 18Z at 120 hours The general overall pattern may be quite similar. But both these 2 models showing differences to the development of that Low. The ICON having a less aggressive more Southerly placed Low in the Atlantic, where as the GFS has the main area of the Low further North in the Atlantic accompanied by lower, upper, heights. The ICON 18Z may have had too many wines from the model night club, since most other models generally model that Atlantic Low fairly closely to how the GFS has it. And maybe if it went out further, the ICON would follow a similar route to the likes of the GFS. I think, though, it can go to show that even within 120 hours the charts aren’t always certain of things. Even if it might be mostly the smaller details and surface features around that time-frame. Some big differences at 5 days out isn’t totally unfeasible, mind. I feel like at the moment, a number of the models may be over doing the strength of that Atlantic Low next week. May just find more of a shallower feature occurring, which could lead to more of a wintrier, chillier, evolution for the UK. A deep(ish) Low, though, would probably appear to be the most popular scenario at the moment and it’s probably more likely than not that the Low will end up going to the North of the UK rather than to the South. But again, with the differences both the ICON and GFS 18Z show above (despite the fact there could be an overall theme emerging next week), then I feel it’s not all sorted yet. In case it does become tempting, it might be best to padlock the prams for now, so no teddies or missiles get flung out. Trust me, it was difficult for me to lock up my little pink pram, but in the end it was worth it.
  2. Of all the 12Z runs that have come out so far (such as the GFS, UKMO and ICON and GEM), they’re all showing quite a devilish Low for that Tuesday next week. 12Z GFS 12Z UKMO 12Z ICON 12Z GEM Out of all the four runs above, would say the 12Z GEM just about shows the Low being the least intense. Still fairly menacing, though. Some models I think were originally showing a more shallower, disrupted, feature for early to mid next week. While the intense Low is a plausible outcome, especially considering the amount of operational models going for it, maybe a possibility that they are suddenly over-blowing that Low a bit? Some interesting weather if you like heavy rain and strong winds. (Personally hoping the Low Pressure system will become more relaxed and chilled out than what’s being currently modelled).
  3. Had the same issue before. Not something that used to happen (or was at least a rarer issue). Should be all sorted now, though
  4. The NAVGEM 12Z, at 168 and 180 hours, shows Low Pressure from the West in the Atlantic slipping over, and to the South of, the UK. So supporting some kind of slider scenario. High Pressure amplifying behind it in the mid and Western Atlantic. The 850 hPa temperatures would probably be a bit colder than that if it occurred, but don’t feel the NAVGEM is modelling the 850 hPa temperatures particularly accurately. Would probably go on to show a colder attack from the North for more areas of the UK if it went out further (and providing that Low to the South-West of the UK was to sufficiently push far enough to the South-East of the island into the nearby continent).
  5. Using examples from the GFS 12Z, looks like the High Pressure that has brought some chilly, frosty and bright conditions will slip away to the East and South of the UK, allowing some more changeable conditions to spill in from the West. High Pressure should, at least, hold on for another day over the South and Eastern portion of the UK tomorrow: Should be a mostly dry and bright day over Central and South-Eastern areas, though some mist/fog and frost patches could still be possible. Some rain over North-Western areas of the UK, where the pressure is lower. And probably quite cool for those under the rain in the South-Westerly to Westerly winds. Models then show Low Pressure to the North becoming more dominant on Thursday and Friday over the UK with Westerly and North-Westerly winds. The best of the driest and less-cool conditions over South-Eastern areas of the UK. But some rain is likely to sweep through most areas during Friday with colder, brighter and showery conditions tucking behind from the North-West. There is then likely to be a transient ridge in the West from the Atlantic tracking Eastwards through the UK on Saturday. This delivering a calmer day with sunny spells in places. Especially towards Southern UK. Though with the GFS showing a Low Pressure system approaching Western areas of the UK from the Atlantic, Ireland, Wales (especially North-Western parts) and Scotland could see a wet afternoon and evening. After that, there could be a possibility for a colder flow to develop from the North for a time early next week. Examples from the 12Z GFS, 12Z GEM and 12Z ICON below. (In that order): GFS 12Z above being the most keen on this. Shows the most pronounced Northerly over the UK at 144 hours thanks to some fairly decent amplification in the Atlantic (though nothing too major). Likely to be cold enough for some wintry showers over Northern UK. The other 2 models a little less keen and pronounced with their North-Westerly and Northerly flows at the same time-frame, particularly on the 12Z ICON. However, the GEM is very similar to the GFS 12Z above at 138 hours: As such, the timing partly having something to do with it as well as the duration of the chillier plunge from the North-West and North. And with the 12Z UKMO, either it just pushes any colder plunge from the North-West or North too quickly East around 144 hours (the one that would appear to affect Scandinavia at that time-frame), or it really isn’t buying into it at all. What ever happens, any chillier flow from the North early next week is likely to be transient (it’s also possible the GFS may be over-doing the Northerly a bit). Does also depend whether High Pressure can amplify enough in the Atlantic with enough of a gap between the Eastern UK and Western Atlantic Low to provide a potent enough Northerly for some wintry weather, before it crumbles away. Inland areas of the UK, such as Central Midlands areas, would likely see a lot of bright, sunny weather should the possible Northerly be a direct straight one from the North. Some further chilly weather could be possible beyond that - a prospect to see the Jet Stream taking an increasingly more North-West to South-East path through the UK (or perhaps just to the South of it), which could encourage Low Pressure to dive to the South of the UK and squeeze the Azores High out West. A bit far away to be sure enough of this yet. The deep(ish) trough of Low Pressure could always stall just to the West of the UK quickly encouraging High Pressure to build to the East of it over mainland Europe and maybe draw up some milder air from the South and South-West. This seems unlikely at the moment, but not impossible. Seeing Low Pressure becoming more Southerly tracking is a possibility anyway. And is something that could provide excitement for the cold and snow weather enthusiasts (if those Lows do behave themselves ).
  6. Think that’s the GFS 00Z run. 06Z run still coming out Quite a pretty chart though. One of these days, a chart like that with a trough of very low UK/Eastern UK and Scandinavian Heights will hopefully make it down to 00 hours... in one piece (for those who like the chilly and wintry conditions :). Although, to be fair, a day like today where a cold High Pressure is delivering some white, sparkling, frost in places, particularly across the South, could count as one of the forms of wintry weather).
  7. Morning @Mr Frost Think I’ll have to if we see a lot of naughty behaviour in here. And worse, I’ll tell Santa to get the naughty ones lumps of coal for Christmas So you better watch out and stay on topic guys (don’t follow my example of going off topic.... ), otherwise you’ll know what will happen.
  8. Indeed. Feels very wintry outside with all the frost and fog here. Really Christmassy feel to the weather. Admit it will be brill to have a break from the raging rain, with the next few days looking chilly and mostly dry. High Pressure becoming the UK’s friend, especially towards Southern UK. Likely to be further wintry-like scenes with further frost and mist/fog, though looking likely that a milder flow from the West will gradually take over from the North-West of the UK pushing the UK High Pressure away. Further on and as some people suggest, a cool down is possible with the possibility of more Polar Maritime air getting into the mix and maybe getting even chillier (still a bit far out to be certain, although some support for this).
  9. Aren’t the easiest charts in the solar system to interpret. However, both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA continuing a similar theme - some higher than average heights out West/South-West in the mid and Western Atlantic, with lower than average heights to the North and North-East of the UK. Looks a fairly mobile Westerly pattern, which fits in with the increasingly Atlantic dominated setup the operational models show for later next week. The confidence perhaps low on the 8 to 14 day chart, but there seems like a good enough signal for some kind of upper Arctic High on the 6 to 10 day chart. (The 8 to 14 day chart does still show some positive anomalies within the Arctic area North of Greenland. Just nothing too strong). Could help deliver some interesting scenarios for the cold weather enthusiasts. Compared to the first chart, the second chart below (the 8 to 14 day one), shows somewhat more of a North-Westerly element to the mean upper flow over the UK. Looks like it would be more on the chilly side for the UK; Polar Maritime influence at times (which could lead to something more directly from the North - even if briefly) and troughing concentrated mostly over the Eastern Atlantic and towards Scandinavia. 6 to 10 day mean Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 8 to 14 day mean Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  10. I guess at most, there could be a few odd, possibly isolated, wintry showers towards the South-East and East of the UK on that chart, before the pressure becomes a bit too influential from the West.
  11. Seems like good enough support from the operational models to see High Pressure becoming a more invasive feature over and around the UK during the next few days. At 96 hours, Monday mid day, and they show the High Pressure over Western and South-Western UK offering some brighter, drier weather. Personally will be welcome, but chilly with night-time frost and some mist/fog in places - the latter probably particularly so towards Southern UK under the slack flow. 12Z ECMWF 12Z UKMO 12Z GEM 12Z GFS 12Z ICON 12Z NAVGEM Although reliability is not a particular friend to this model, thought I’d post the 12Z NAVGEM at 180 hours just to illustrate what that model is showing towards the FI sort of range: Looks as though it would lead to an increasingly chilly flow from the North-West. Maybe developing more into a Northerly flow after (but may just end up with Polar Maritime air), with some modest amplification upstream in the Western Atlantic.
  12. Just a reminder that posts about the current temperatures, or just general weather chat, belong in the relevant threads (such as the Autumn Moans and Chat one, or the daily weather reports thread). Cheers!
  13. That’s sound fair what you say. Being strict with the moderation of the model thread would help keep it running smooth.
  14. Good point. Basically a thread I guess that focuses more on the deeper and/or scientific aspects of the models. Things like the teleconnections, the MJO, sea and ice conditions, mountain torques and events high up in the atmosphere like the Strat. (I appreciate, however, we already have a Stratosphere and Vortex watch thread. But some of that could be included in a technical in depth model thread as longs as there’s a fair amount of non-stratospheric model chat included in the post too). Should a cold hunt model thread go ahead, probably just find that the general model thread would be sufficient enough for some technical model chat.
  15. Just curious whether you’re happy with the way we’re running the model threads, or whether the likes of the hunt for cold Model thread should come back. For those who aren’t aware, last Winter we ran a model thread that solely focused on the cold weather in the models. A separate model thread ran along-side it focusing more generally on the models with a more in depth analysis on the charts. A slower, more laid back, thread, you could say. We felt having a separate Model Output thread focusing on chilly conditions was a good way to de-clutter the main Model thread and allow people the space to get as excited as possible about cold or snowy weather. (We appreciate, though, that not everyone is after the cold and a few may even like a hunt for mild weather Model thread). Would you like to see a cold chart hunting thread return, and are there any other model threads you’d like to see? (e.g: an in-depth technical model thread, a short-range model thread? etc) Edit: As an example, an in depth technical model thread could be a thread more focused on the deeper and scientific aspects of the models. Such as the teleconnections, the MJO, sea surface conditions, events high up in the atmosphere (though I appreciate we have a Stratosphere and Vortex watch thread already). And maybe even things such as the EPS ensemble system. And as for the short range model thread, a topic dedicated to focusing on the 0 to 5 day range of the models. Maybe even up to 7 days. Although we haven’t really discussed it, be interested in people’s opinion about these things. It could affect how we setup the Model threads during the Winter. We want it to be a system that works efficiently for numerous people.
  16. That 06Z GEFS Perturbation 9 looks quite a pretty looking North-Westerly flow with some yummy -10*C 850 hPas getting dragged down through the UK from the North. Despite feeling doubtful about whether a Polar and Arctic Maritime short of that power will occur within the next 10+ days (though a flow from the North-West looks possible), it seems to have been a while since seeing one of those North-Westerly flows with that depth of cold. Love to see one of that quality happen again sometime combined with a deep Eastern UK trough. Does look like in the closer time-frame, the the wet weather will start taking a nap, as the models show High Pressure to the West and North-West of the UK getting knocked over us. You can see as today’s Low Pressure starts pulling away to the East it will pull down a chilly flow from the North (1st chart above) bringing in a few showers, probably wintry over Northern and North-Eastern UK. Particularly high ground. There’s always a possible risk of some wintry weather on Saturday for Southern UK (most likely to be the far South as some have mentioned but depends on the Lows actual track and it may not reach Southern UK at all). Will likely be rain, possibility sleety in some spots, especially over the hills. The 3rd chart above illustrating Low Pressure pushing through to the South of the UK on Saturday, which again could provide some wintry interest as the Low runs into some cold air from the North. Asides from that, it looks to stay mostly dry, and frosty at night during clearer spells, which does look possible with models, such as the GFS 06Z above, showing High Pressure pretty dominant over the UK early next week. The weather has been working too hard and needs a rest.
  17. 4.3*C with 59mm of snow and rain, please. My guess would be for it to start fairly average, possibly mild at times. Colder and snowier during the last third of December. A total of 85 snow showers over the UK during Christmas Day.
  18. Nearer to the end of the run and the GEM 12Z shows the Atlantic ridge collapsing over the UK. But it would put an end to all the rain that’s been raiding the UK and provide a chance for places to dry out a bit. Maybe a chance also of a few wintry showers towards the East of the UK via the Northerly/North-Easterly flow, before the Atlantic ridge topples in.
  19. Worst: Would probably be January. Much as I enjoy the snow and cold, once Christmas is through, the continued short days make it a month that just heaves by. Getting up for work while it’s still dark feels depressing. It’s especially hard-going when the weather is cloudy, wet and gloomy. Not as bad personally if the weather is cold and dry, mild and dry, or cold and snowy. Still my least favourite month, though. Favourite: Would be May. The longer days, the blooming of flowers, and all the pretty colours of gardens and the countryside, makes it a relaxing and enjoyable month. The warmer weather makes being outdoors comfortable (even though it could get quite hot in May). Also my personal favourite time of year to go for long walks.
  20. I think just to make it clear, this thread is free for anyone to discuss any models they like - whether they’re charts in the short range modelling, the medium range modelling or those in the unreliable time-frame of the dreamland (Fantasy Island). Whether these charts show mild, dry, cold, frost, fog, storms, wind and/or snow, you’re welcome to discuss or chase after any of these types of weather in the charts. Nevertheless, we do encourage people to back up posts with charts, or at least add a few sentences about what the models show (a few odd briefer descriptions of the models along with some humour is okay, too, since a lot of us become flooded with passion for particular weather types). You can also just discuss one model if you like. Any trouble, bad behaviour or off topic posts (except the odd one or two if the thread is quiet, especially if those posts still relates to model discussion in some ways), and you’ll be thrown into this dark, dusty, old room for a while filled with gremlins and spiders. Our lovely lovely dungeon.
  21. Makes me want to jump into these pictures marvelling the stunning Scottish scenery and play about in the snow!
  22. As a comparison, this was what yesterday’s GFS 18Z was illustrating for next Tuesday (9pm): And this is what that 18Z model is showing today for next Tuesday night: More of a slider-like behaviour to that Western UK Low drawing up more of a South-Easterly feed towards South-Western UK. Both that Atlantic Low and the little North-Eastern UK Low are separate (as mentioned by some).
  23. The rain must have been a touch sleety here as some of the drops landed on my arms as icy clumps. Refusing to turn into actual sleet or snow (if only it was just that bit more colder).
  24. Have no fear! GFS Perturbation 3, And GFS Perturbation 11, Shows High Pressure having a late night feast - the UK trough! All gobbled up and inside the High’s belly
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