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Everything posted by DiagonalRedLine

  1. Just to wish everyone on Netweather and the model output thread a great Easter. Whether you’re going through a difficult time, or something more, I hope Easter ends up being kind to you! @Singularity And you make a valid point in your last paragraph. What ever the models show now, whether it’s an unsettled spell, or a dry and sunny one, or a mixture of both even, it doesn’t really have a bearing to what could happen in the Summer. Like with last year when there was a fair amount of warm dry weather in both April and May (I suppose with the regional variations), it lead to a very warm and dry Summer for most overall! I think there was also one year with quite a chunk of showery weather in April and May that lead to a warmer, settled, Summer. Might have been 2006 (or possibly 2003).
  2. Probably warm to very warm at times with a sleepy Atlantic. 13*C, and 40mm rainfall please.
  3. Nearing 17*C here now in Solihull with some sunny spells. Just 3 more degrees to reach that magic 20*C mark. And I think that’s a good idea for the likes of the BBC News to go back and see why the weather behaved differently to what was expected. Just like when snow is forecasted, but a single snowflake doesn’t end up falling on the day.
  4. An example at 216 hours, but both the 00Z GFS and 00Z GEM show High Pressure building back over the U.K towards next weekend. Both clearly not liking the ECMWF this morning and are joining forces against it. (ECMWF at 216 hours) The trough conquers the UK! Something the warm and High Pressure enthusiasts won’t be pleased about! But could provide a lot of convective, showery, weather. The build of Pressure, though, could be a bit stronger on the GEM, but still pretty much shaking hands with the GFS. Expect more changes towards the end of next week. And even, in some ways, the earlier part of that week. How ever much the trough goes on a rampage over the U.K (doesn’t look like the models remembered their Westward adjustment of the pattern this morning ), could resultantly affect what happens after. Can the Low Pressure lift away quickly enough (with some of it getting cut of to our South) and allow High Pressure to come back to the rescue? Or will the sneaky Low(s) get stuck over us like glue? Personally hope for the former. While as I said, things will keep changing, it’s tempting to gather up some bomb-ombs from Mario Kart 8 Deluxe’s item boxes and toss them at that Low on the ECMWF towards the end of it’s run! It’s quite likely Low Pressure from the West in the Atlantic will pay some kind of visit over the U.K next week. This especially so over Western areas with some rain and thundery showers about. Plus, there is some warm, bright and generally dry weather to look forward to over this Easter weekend, where models show High Pressure being mostly in control (albeit with the threat of soggy weather towards Western areas later on into this weekend). 🌤🌦
  5. Same! Prefer having the pattern further West (even tho admittedly some of us could do with some rain).
  6. Does look like the odd case at the moment where some of runs move things further West during their morning updates, and then shift everything back further East during their afternoon and evening updates!
  7. I would think so. The more warmer, humid days with flows between the South and East could certainly support temperatures in the mid-twenties! Especially where skies are clear and sunny. As you mention though, there could always be a chance of the pattern moving back further East on the models allowing Lows from the West to invade more of the U.K with a risk of the warmer air getting mixed out. Particularly towards Western UK spots. Probably feel for now the pattern may not shift back further East, or at least maybe just a little nudge Eastwards. But you never know. Eastern UK blocking Highs never appear to be particularly easy to model, and the same for the way they handle Low Pressure to the West/South-West of the block.
  8. There’s just no stopping that Eastern UK/Scandinavian High Pressure system at the moment. (And the same is the case from the 06Z GFS at 144 hours, where it looks mostly warm and settled). Nothing can seem to stand in the High’s way - including the Atlantic Lows!
  9. The 12Z GFS shows High Pressure pouncing back over the U.K towards the end of next week with the main area of the Atlantic troughing directed back further North. Generally warm and bright with some sunny spells, especially towards Western UK, maybe still with the odd thundery shower towards the South.
  10. Certainly! Don’t mind the Blue Meanies carrying out their invasion over us in Winter and early Spring, but it’s nice seeing the Yellow and Orange Friendlies fighting the Meanies away from the UK! And ar no! It looks like the Green Grinchies are trying to take over on that FV3 run!
  11. According to some of those charts, the next few weeks could feel more like Bake-pril! (sorry I couldn’t resist lol)
  12. Just my opinion of what that chart shows, he hee! (Frosty's right, though. Was seeing the funny side of it, really :))
  13. I dunno, Frosty. That chart looks so bad, I seriously expect a red warning to be issued. I suspect this event will be on the evening news come Saturday!
  14. Up to 144 hours, the 00Z GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM, shows one big fight continuing with both the Scandinavian High Pressure and the wicked Atlantic Lows! (72 hours) (144 hours) Seems like that Scandi dude may be winning. For now! But those guys are always at each other’s throats! Why are they so grumpy all the time
  15. Cool and cloudy conditions like a few others, including a dull but not-quite-cold-enough-for-snow Easterly. I also hate rain with temperatures stuck around 3 or 4*C, knowing it’s frustratingly so close to being cold enough for snow. And you just wish there was more in the way of evaporative cooling and/or slightly colder air wrapped around the system.
  16. The GEFS (00Z version), continues to show a build of Pressure over the U.K towards the Easter period, the best of the settled and warm conditions towards Southern UK. While it’s only an ensemble mean, doesn’t scream particularly unsettled. I imagine quite pleasant in sunnier spells. I think, to be fair, should the Easterly next week not be cold enough for something wintry (can’t really see any snow occurring) then, personally, roll on some warmer, brighter weather!
  17. Will very very likely change on the next run, but the 06Z GFS operational run shows a puny area of -10*C 850 hPa temperatures over North Eastern England at 192 hours.
  18. Greetings to you all! Since we're into April, got a shiny new model thread to go along with it! For quite a few, it has been an amusing start to the month so far. Sunshine, rain, hail, sleet and snow, thunder, and a bit of wind. Everything you could probably think of (well, except for the golden kitchen sink!) Quite a chilly start it has been, But... will it get any warmer? The models seem to generally suggest things warming up a little during the weekend, and this then maybe followed by a cold blast from the North-East into the following week? Maybe then the possibility of pressure building over the UK with warmer, sunnier weather? Some interesting times ahead whatever happens (though I wouldn't mind a much warmer spell developing! But maybe I'd also welcome that possible cold blast from the East next week if it brought a few flurries!). The Rules As we often say, please keep things friendly and on topic in here. Some banter, including the odd bit of off-topic chat, is fine as longs it doesn't cause the thread to come off its tracks. The team will moderate this thread from time to time to keep it focused on the models and prevent derailment! Bad and rude behaviour will not be tolerated either! Alternative Threads To chat more generally about the Spring weather, please head over to the spring thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91223-spring-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/ And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/ For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/ Model Output And Charts On Netweather: GFS GFS FV3 (Para) GEFS Ensembles ECMWF and ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR (3km) NetWx-MR (9km) Met-Office (UKMO) FAX GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jetstream Stratosphere Previous thread here: Cheers all!
  19. Will be closing this shortly, but will put a link to this thread in the newly created one, since it's getting fairly busy now and don't want to run the risk ruining the flow of the discussions. New thread:
  20. May open up a new thread in a bit for us seeing as we are in the start of the new month.
  21. Sounds like a fun, relaxing, day! To be honest, I think even sleet is far more exciting than just plain ol’ rain.
  22. Some actual proper wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain during a brief heavyish shower, here. An earlier shower produced more in the way of a rain and graupel mix. Temperature got down to 1.9*C at one point! A very impressive shower you guys had in London, though. Am kinda jealous, lol! But well done to you lot!
  23. Currently having a shower here with what either looks like graupel or snowflakes mixed in! Edit: temperature is apparently only 2*C here, lol.
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