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aspire27

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Posts posted by aspire27

  1. The short to medium term outlook is cold for much of the country, the main risk of snow and cold is in the north of england and Scotland and at times the whole of the UK. I'm not too sure why there are some downbeat posts, if you live in the far south the outlook isn't amazing but it isn't bad either. Next week is a different story and is not worth been downbeat or upbeat over as we don't know what will happen, negative posts are misleading as it is still too far away to be certain.

    Disagree.

    Dont think there are any downbeat posts....

    I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output.

    That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

  2. The models are still in a mess in the medium range but I am confident they will sort

    themselves out. Heights will build down from the north with the lows tracking further

    south and east and then a spell of very cold wintry weather.

    we had a nice 45minutes or so of heavy wet snow this afternoon by the way.

    Should just add to any newer members watching this is only my opinion of how

    the synoptics will play out later in the week and through next week.

    ECM out to t240 and it looks like its made a right pigs ear of thing again.

    Sorry CC but once again you have added a good 'get out clause' in your post regarding cold. There is NOTHING significant showing in the models regarding cold this week. Maybe some wet snow in places. Any real snow limited to N and NE Scotland this week. Please please stop getting the hopes up of 'newer members'.

    Well, our local forecast just now on BBC was very confident of milder (8 to 9c) by end of the week with rain or showers - didn't even hint at possible colder weather - obviously for Bristol, Glos, Wilts and the South west - so my interpretation is the Meto are pretty confident of their forecast for the next week or so - maybe more wintry up north and for a time later tom in Midlands.

    The model runs are showing, for me, a typical 'transition' period in mid-Feb, from the cold depths of winter to a less cold picture with a mix of precipitation types. I'd bet on a real north/south split in terms of cold and mild by the weekend.

    Whether the colder weather, with possible snow, returns to more southern parts of the UK during the next week is still up in the air IMO. Or winter could just gradually 'morph' into Spring.

    Good post Bristle boy, very realistic. The gradual morph to spring is on it way. My weather station had a maximum of 8.5 degrees today.

    Not a poor outlook for cold fans though with some severe frosts towards the end of the week and staying cold/sunny with cold >-5C 850 hPa air covering the country, you have a very negative way at looking at things ian and its no wonder posters get agitated by you so you get no sympathy from me for the way posters treated you last night.

    The winter officially is coming to an end now and its been a cold one so far, i guess you`ll be posting like this in the spring too when people are looking for warmth, tease.gif

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1021.png

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1023.png

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn9017.png - Very cold night thursday.

    http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10210.png - Nice crisp dewpoints with lots of sunshine

    http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn10217.png - Cold day for the vast majority, no 8C or 9C for most.

    Sorry but once again, 'severe frosts'??? Dont think so. Severe frost is what the country had towards the end of Dec, early Jan. People now need to realise that we are entering the end of winter and heading for march.

    Please can we stop the chasing the cold that has never really been showed this month. The only real cold has been in FI, and as FI neared it was downgrades all the way as I said and got slated. As per last week regarding the 'easterly'.

    So this week some wintry PPN about the country, any snow and cold weather is in N/NE Scotland. Hope people start to realise this and stop chasing something that has not ever been consistanlty modeled.

  3. You know I have never rated the ECM model, lol.

    Seriously I know the way I see the synoptic pattern playing out over the next two weeks or so

    goes against all nwp model output at the moment but lets see how it plays out for the next

    two or three days.

    Just to add today was the 10th consecutive day with the AO below -4SD. Today it actually

    dropped back below -5SD. The MJO is also conducive to blocking to our north and yet the best

    we in the UK can achieve at the moment is a rather cold north to northeasterly airflow across the

    country. Add on to this a downward propagating negative zonal winds and warming that is likely

    to affect and bring blocking into Svalbard and Scandinavia and to me that spells one thing. A

    freeze is coming.

    Lol I have actually been looking back through archive charts with similar blocking to the north to see

    what degree of cold is still possible. If synoptics developed favorably then ice days etc are easily

    achievable even into March, let alone lying snow.

    Having a -AO dosent mean a cold spell is heading our way. This has been explained so many times here. Again there is no real cold in the models, very disappointing again. Another week will pass waiting for a trend to cold to appear in the Models, all the while we are heading towards march.

    Sorry CC, but the above post is only a hopecast.

  4. From what I see of the 12z things are perfectly on track for exactly the kind of setup I expected. With a huge prolonged widespread snow event so close and upgrades that will follow in subsequent runs there is everything to play for.

    I may view and interpret things in the models differently from some on here but my method looks flawless with everything falling into place.

    Sorry Robert, but you have said these things before. Currently I can only see wet wet wet unless your in Scotland on a hill.

    Looks like this winter will finish on a wet note.

  5. Wow 13 posts since midnight.

    Seems to me, as i said before, that this month has been a case of chasing the cold that has never been in the reliable time frame. Looks like the rest of the month will be the same, with only 18 days of winter left (in my book) this Feb is going out with a big wimper.

    A very big turn around in the models (showing in the reliable) is now needed, looking at charts in FI caught us out last week in regards to this weeks downgrades and again last night and on moday people saying next week is the week to watch.

    Chasing cold in FI is mad, if we cannot get any cold in the reliable nailded first.

    IMBY this week has been fine dry and sunny so far with temps just below average, feels like spring in the sunshine....out of the wind mind you.

  6. The gfs continues to push the HP further South full stop, and if it continues to do so, come thursday/friday all of us will be under it.

    Lets see what the ECM shows.

    Sorry but have to agree with Lewis. He has a good point and thats how he sees the models and what he thinks will happen. If the ECM shows the same I think Lewis will have his trend.

  7. Nothing exciting for the rest of week up to friday with that HP stuck NW of Scotland looking at the 6z run.

    It seems to me and im sure lots of you will disagree but run after run now seems to be a downgrade for us in the UK.

    EDIT:

    Also next week the models are going for a west based -ve NAO which could let the atlantic straight back in. This colder spell could be long gone by next week.

  8. No real change on the GFS run this morning that i can see in the short term to medium term from the last few runs..if anything the high when it does retrogress away to the north west pull to far west into greenland and north east canada..with eventually lows pushing up from the south west.

    Very slack easterly flow later this week..but seems most of the energy being pushed away south into north and eastern france and switerland.

    Sounds like the easterly is non existance at the moment with regards to its potentness. Last nights fax charts didnt seem amazing, a NE flow with showers across the east, dry with sunny spells out west with temps just below average at least until the end part of the week.

    This week looks like turning out a different from what last weeks charts predicted. Lots of people looking to next week now for more cold and snow which is just crazy. This must be due

    to this week not turning out to be as cold or snowy as most would of liked. Might even feel spring like in the sunshine out west this week.

    I hope more cold and snowy synoptics turn up in the reliable rather than just slight downgrades in the reliable and people still chasing the FI.

  9. Sorry but in the far SW temps were always going to be around 7C, for the bulk of the country temps are 4C/5C or below, i hardly would call where you live representative of the country as a whole and it wasn't supposed to be that cold today anyway as its a slow turnaround from milder to colder weather.

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1217.png

    http://www.weatheron...TIME=1265554916

    Anyway not far from you is reporting 4C. tease.gif

    http://www.weatheron...O=u3010&LANG=en

    Thank you for all your efforts to prove me wrong.

    Maybe i should check my wireless thermometer, must be reading high..

    Oh and that last link, is for bristol airport...quite high if you ask me at 180m ASL. lol

  10. LOL, nice misrepresentation of the facts aspire, let me correct you, the temps are 4C widespread today as shown here exactly what was being shown since thursday, last sunday the models were going for temperatures of around 11C and one poster was predicting a possible 16C/17C smile.gif

    http://www.weatheron...TIME=1265553786

    Sorry but its not 4 degrees here. As i said 7.5 highest today. Been discussing temps on the SW regional thread and people have been recording the same. So as you said, and as i said the models last thursday were showing temps of 3-4 degrees for today....im just saying its not that cold thats all.

  11. Well its 5.3c at home but that is very high up so not as cold as id expect.

    looks cold and sunny in west holland. pardon.gif

    I was just under the impression today was when the first part of the colder air was to arrive. I dont mean really cold, but lots of people

    were talking around 3-4 degrees.

    Thinking about it though, because the model output thread is so so so East biased they were probably talking about IMBY rather than the country as

    a whole.

  12. I agree with all of that. It's looking strikingly similar to the build up to the first cold spell in December with high pressure near us initially keeping things chilly and quiet.

    13th December 2009: http://91.121.94.83/...21306-0-6.png?6

    17th December 2009: http://91.121.94.83/...21706-0-6.png?6

    So it looks like a quiet first week or so, not that cold or snowy. Then the real fun and game start as the high migrates to Greenland, opening the flood gates to the N-E. Could also open us up to attacks from the Atlantic and so potential battleground snow events, maybe even some channel lows if we're lucky.

    I am thinking this could be a quite prolonged and severe spell.

    Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

  13. Dont worry guys and girls, only two more weeks of model watching then this winter is over. Soon you will be out of your misery.

    I say two weeks because in two the models will be showing the end of Feb which = winter is practically over.

    Im really looking forward to the METO long range forecast for a complete back track on any cold over the next day or so.

    The magic day of Feb 8th is looking very mild now.

    GP has said all along a mild Feb....looks like he could be right.

    Mind you, the faxes tonight will be interesting too, because last night they looked different to the model output

  14. As the models flip from one output to another the only consistant theme is the METO. They are still going for a cold period coming up and have not back tracked one bit as far as I can see.

    Am I correct in saying this?

    Due to the poor models (i dont mean for cold, or for mild) I think the experience and human touch of the professionals with their science over at the METO will be interesting to watch.

    I think the METO are still against a mild outlook.

    Anyone agree?

    EDIT:

    Wasnt lasts nights fax very different to the model output also?

  15. Just watch todays early models back track on the cold.

    Still cant understand why the METO is still going to cold for next week. The latest fax chart definatley not in agreement with last nights (monday) output.

    Must be a lot of experience and human touch going into the METO's forecasting...can only be good...........but if bad, just shows they havent a clue!

    Anyway I could not understand the excitment today when nothing was shown in the reliable, just like the last three weeks.

  16. Posted this yesterday:

    Quote"From a newbie point of view this thread is becoming so hard to follow with regard to the model output. I remember a couple of days it was all about the

    beast from the east now its all mild mild mild.

    Makes me think some people need to calm down a bit. I bet we get a brilliant cold chart in the next few runs...then once again the beast is on!!"

    I personally dont trust any output from the models with all the flip flopping all the time...

    I think a lot of human input and experience is being used by the METO regarding their monthly forecast going for much colder conditions. If the models flip again

    tomorrow which Id expect them to do, and the METO is still going for cold, im going with the METO for a cold period coming soon.

  17. 16 or 17c in febuary??

    I'll take that now thanks...

    we dont see them kind of temps in winter...17c in FEB!!!!!

    next we will be told it will be 35c -39c in summer lazy.gif

    Read all your posts this evening and not one has contributed to this MODEL OUTPUT THREAD. For a newbie this is really anoying. Im not the first person to

    comment on your posts today.

    Please mods.

  18. From a newbie point of view this thread is becoming so hard to follow with regard to the model output. I remember a couple of days it was all about the

    beast from the east now its all mild mild mild.

    Makes me think some people need to calm down a bit. I bet we get a brilliant cold chart in the next few runs...then once again the beast is on!!

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