aspire27

Disagree. Dont think there are any downbeat posts.... I think they are realistic posts with regards to the model output. That is nothing notable is being shown, only people chasing week after week something that isnt there or is in deep FI.

Sorry CC but once again you have added a good 'get out clause' in your post regarding cold. There is NOTHING significant showing in the models regarding cold this week. Maybe some wet snow in places. Any real snow limited to N and NE Scotland this week. Please please stop getting the hopes up of 'newer members'. Good post Bristle boy, very realistic. The gradual morph to spring is on it way. My weather station had a maximum of 8.5 degrees today. Sorry but once again, 'severe frosts'??? Dont think so. Severe frost is what the country had towards the end of Dec, early Jan. People now need to realise that we are entering the end of winter and heading for march. Please can we stop the chasing the cold that has never really been showed this month. The only real cold has been in FI, and as FI neared it was downgrades all the way as I said and got slated. As per last week regarding the 'easterly'. So this week some wintry PPN about the country, any snow and cold weather is in N/NE Scotland. Hope people start to realise this and stop chasing something that has not ever been consistanlty modeled.

Having a -AO dosent mean a cold spell is heading our way. This has been explained so many times here. Again there is no real cold in the models, very disappointing again. Another week will pass waiting for a trend to cold to appear in the Models, all the while we are heading towards march. Sorry CC, but the above post is only a hopecast.

Sorry Robert, but you have said these things before. Currently I can only see wet wet wet unless your in Scotland on a hill. Looks like this winter will finish on a wet note.

Looks like something much more interesting in the charts today. Lets hope we see this trend continue with these charts being brought into the reliable.

Wow 13 posts since midnight. Seems to me, as i said before, that this month has been a case of chasing the cold that has never been in the reliable time frame. Looks like the rest of the month will be the same, with only 18 days of winter left (in my book) this Feb is going out with a big wimper. A very big turn around in the models (showing in the reliable) is now needed, looking at charts in FI caught us out last week in regards to this weeks downgrades and again last night and on moday people saying next week is the week to watch. Chasing cold in FI is mad, if we cannot get any cold in the reliable nailded first. IMBY this week has been fine dry and sunny so far with temps just below average, feels like spring in the sunshine....out of the wind mind you.

Temp 5.5 today Just dropped to 4.1 in hail sleety shower EDIT: dropped to 3.8

Sorry but have to agree with Lewis. He has a good point and thats how he sees the models and what he thinks will happen. If the ECM shows the same I think Lewis will have his trend.

Nothing but damp drizzle about this week with temps around 3-5 degrees all week. Really at this point nothing that cold coming our way or snow. Looking like the atlantic will come steaming in next with the models going for a west based -ve NAO. Models downgrading every day now, even FI looks like poor now.

Nothing exciting for the rest of week up to friday with that HP stuck NW of Scotland looking at the 6z run. It seems to me and im sure lots of you will disagree but run after run now seems to be a downgrade for us in the UK. EDIT: Also next week the models are going for a west based -ve NAO which could let the atlantic straight back in. This colder spell could be long gone by next week.

Sounds like the easterly is non existance at the moment with regards to its potentness. Last nights fax charts didnt seem amazing, a NE flow with showers across the east, dry with sunny spells out west with temps just below average at least until the end part of the week. This week looks like turning out a different from what last weeks charts predicted. Lots of people looking to next week now for more cold and snow which is just crazy. This must be due to this week not turning out to be as cold or snowy as most would of liked. Might even feel spring like in the sunshine out west this week. I hope more cold and snowy synoptics turn up in the reliable rather than just slight downgrades in the reliable and people still chasing the FI.

Not much in the way of PPN for us according to Ian (thanks for the update Ian). Worrying that the PPN moves further norh in the longer term outlook. Got a horrible feeling the SW will only get decent snow from a breakdown due to the atlantic coming in. But this is far far FI, and not modeled yet.

Do you have any charts showing this snow event? Thanks.

Thank you for all your efforts to prove me wrong. Maybe i should check my wireless thermometer, must be reading high.. Oh and that last link, is for bristol airport...quite high if you ask me at 180m ASL. lol

Sorry but its not 4 degrees here. As i said 7.5 highest today. Been discussing temps on the SW regional thread and people have been recording the same. So as you said, and as i said the models last thursday were showing temps of 3-4 degrees for today....im just saying its not that cold thats all.

I was just under the impression today was when the first part of the colder air was to arrive. I dont mean really cold, but lots of people were talking around 3-4 degrees. Thinking about it though, because the model output thread is so so so East biased they were probably talking about IMBY rather than the country as a whole.

Not sure why people are banking on events so far out? Maybe its because this week the cold that was showing is now been pushed back. I think last thursday the models were showing much colder temps for today but things have turned out different (7.5 degrees here). I hope the models stay consistant with regards to cold but looking so far ahead is a little silly if you ask me, but it is ok for looknig for trends. This time next sunday you never know, we may be in a really potent cold spell, or we could be once again looking into FI for our cold snowy weather.

7.2 degrees today. Mild if you ask me. Lots of talk on the model output thread yesterday of temps being in the region of 3-4 degrees. Not IMBY.

Everyones over on TWO. Downgrade already? I said this earlier about downgrades. But again my post was deleted. No way as cold or snowy as the 12z.

Dont worry guys and girls, only two more weeks of model watching then this winter is over. Soon you will be out of your misery. I say two weeks because in two the models will be showing the end of Feb which = winter is practically over. Im really looking forward to the METO long range forecast for a complete back track on any cold over the next day or so. The magic day of Feb 8th is looking very mild now. GP has said all along a mild Feb....looks like he could be right. Mind you, the faxes tonight will be interesting too, because last night they looked different to the model output

As the models flip from one output to another the only consistant theme is the METO. They are still going for a cold period coming up and have not back tracked one bit as far as I can see. Am I correct in saying this? Due to the poor models (i dont mean for cold, or for mild) I think the experience and human touch of the professionals with their science over at the METO will be interesting to watch. I think the METO are still against a mild outlook. Anyone agree? EDIT: Wasnt lasts nights fax very different to the model output also?

Just watch todays early models back track on the cold. Still cant understand why the METO is still going to cold for next week. The latest fax chart definatley not in agreement with last nights (monday) output. Must be a lot of experience and human touch going into the METO's forecasting...can only be good...........but if bad, just shows they havent a clue! Anyway I could not understand the excitment today when nothing was shown in the reliable, just like the last three weeks.

Posted this yesterday: Quote"From a newbie point of view this thread is becoming so hard to follow with regard to the model output. I remember a couple of days it was all about the beast from the east now its all mild mild mild. Makes me think some people need to calm down a bit. I bet we get a brilliant cold chart in the next few runs...then once again the beast is on!!" I personally dont trust any output from the models with all the flip flopping all the time... I think a lot of human input and experience is being used by the METO regarding their monthly forecast going for much colder conditions. If the models flip again tomorrow which Id expect them to do, and the METO is still going for cold, im going with the METO for a cold period coming soon.

Read all your posts this evening and not one has contributed to this MODEL OUTPUT THREAD. For a newbie this is really anoying. Im not the first person to comment on your posts today. Please mods.

From a newbie point of view this thread is becoming so hard to follow with regard to the model output. I remember a couple of days it was all about the beast from the east now its all mild mild mild. Makes me think some people need to calm down a bit. I bet we get a brilliant cold chart in the next few runs...then once again the beast is on!!