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Eastbourneguy

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  1. Finally some snow in Eastbourne! 98A82F8B-7751-484D-A0FB-15E2167D0669.mp4
  2. Just plopping it down with rain in Eastbourne I'm told by my family, even though snowing in Seaford along the coast. 1.8C with 0.8 dew point, 3mm of rain an hour going to waste!
  3. Come on ladies and gents ?? The only significant cold spell I can remember that was modelled ‘relatively’ stress free for coldies was 2010, we should be used to this banter. However, I do find it hilarious that some were claiming the ICON to be be chosen one that foresaw this mighty downgrade, disregarding the GFS. Now they have flipped on 06zs(ICON colder, GFS warmer) and the same people claiming game over from a completely different model showing the ‘warmer’ solution. ? I do feel like when the ‘big 3’ all show cold but different synoptic evolutions, we need to stop convincin
  4. Snowy back home! http://www.itsfine.org/weather/wx_webcam_quick.php Edit: Already eased off haha
  5. It begins - first showers starting to hit Aberdeen as well.
  6. Just for some perspective, here is the +168 chart from 'That ECM', alongside our current +72 chart. Going to be an exceptional week guys and gals
  7. The modelled snow depths by Friday on the 12z ecm below. Looks like Eastern Ireland is going to get walloped! For England and Wales, this run models all ppn falling as snow for the first 6 hours before ice pellets/freezing rain comes into the mix in the far south (roughly 40miles from the coast), snow further North. Then a return to all snow, even on the coast as the ppn begins to move northwards, up the spine of the country and even making it to Scotland.
  8. Been analysing the ECM 12z ensembles, 40/50 of the members show the low producing an all snow event, even for the south coast - some runs the low doesn't actually make it towards the UK though. Of these 40 members, the 850s remain at least -1/-2 throughout, these members are still modelling precipitation as snow, presumably from low dew points coming from the frozen continent. Haven't looked at the longer term implications, but shows that at least in the ECM ensemble suite, most people still have a good chance of an all snow event from the low.
  9. So 3-4 days of sub -10 850s (towards -15) for most. Convective showers and troughs forecast in that time and now the models trying to firm up on a low pathway that has potential to bring crazy amounts of snow somewhere. The ensembles are there for a reason, to pick out the average and have so far been very good with this spell, even with the occasional erratic behaviour from the ops on both the ecm and gfs. Yes, the gfs op recently could be correct with the low ruining the party in the far south but that’s not the ensemble consensus. Anyway, enjoy the next 5 days, may the strea
  10. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/66-e-529-n/m1_temperature-850hpa/20180228-1800z.html Zoom to the UK, change the date to Wednesday mid-day, select 850hpa temperatures, scroll through the various 50 members and enjoy!
  11. The GFS 6z ensembles show just how delightful this spell could be. The 'clean' runs with their mouth watering 850s vs the messy shortwave city runs, which still manage to maintain near enough -10 850s for around 4-5 days. I'm totally not excited.....
  12. Can confirm 100% legit light snow in the Woodhouse area, Leeds.
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