Ice Cube
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Posts posted by Ice Cube
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5 minutes ago, bobbarley said:
So are we more positive about cold next week again?
Was never not positive, and if it changes in the morning I would still be positive. You can't look at single ops in isolation, look at 4 or more side by side identify what's different in the early time frame that takes them down the different paths and make a call referencing the back ground signals that have always remained positive. IMO that prevents these hourly knee jerk reactions. The dismissive comments regarding impacts of SSWs on the weather patterns are just plain wrong. No one has ever said it 100% means cold and snow, but what it does do is break up the traditional normal patterns and then it's just luck if we end up doing well. Anyway anything coming from the East is good for me generally (IMBY sorry).
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59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
The 12z have generally been good for cold, only for the 0z to download grade. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I wonder if it has anything to do with the measurements of the boundary layer, the boundary layer depth is currently measured twice daily by launching weather balloons from about 100 locations so only two runs get the very latest information. This is changing to radar apparently (this could be one of the changes occurring in the new GFS) but this was announced only in Aug last year following research at Penn State. Note change will be all 4 runs get the data and supposedly more accurate data.
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7 hours ago, jules216 said:
This is been happening far too often by so called cold rampers who always find a chart that fits their agenda, whether it is GEM 240hr, Navgem, GFSV3 at 300+ hours away. Quite logically output that shows mild within 144hr is ignored. Occasionally more respected rampers pull out some analogues from decades ago to excite the audience and so it goes. Winter of 70s or 800s are long gone with the shear persistence of cold and snow, just look at last decade, apart from 2010 December, snow has not been able to settle for more then a week at altitude below 200m in UK/IE.
Looking at this winter even from an European perspective, it has only been a good winter for locations over 500m.asl, but if you look at cities like Berlin,Vienna,Prague,Budapest and Bratislava, the cold and snow has had hard time to stay for more then a week at best. Apart from Scandinavia,Baltics and higher ground elsewhere(above 500m.asl) it had been a frustrating winter so far. I am lucky to be living in a valley sheltered from westerlies and have kept a modest snow cover throughout, this winter is perhaps going to be record braking for snowfall in northern Alps, Tatras/Carpathian mountians. But if it is to any comfort to you guys in IE/UK it is nothing special so far,despite all the seasonal ramps/hype that preceded this. Lets see if second part of winter can deliver the goods.
I am beginning to wonder if you have some kind of agenda? Did I sleep through last year? 6ft plus snow drifts 3 days and nights of almost continues snow and blizzard conditions on the south east coast of Ireland less then 1km from coast. Now apart from that 'what have the romans ever done for us?'
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The Irish met have changed Mondays forcast for winds on Monday to now be coming from the South East. Would that suggest systems are undercutting as per UKMO. These update 4 times a day and the last 3 or 4 suggested winds from the west but that changed in this afternoons update.
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I have noticed that the Met.ie had been showing return to normal from Thursday onwards since Friday evening actually but today they are suggesting things may last a little longer. Obviously when dealing with the longer term it's about broad strokes and trends and this slight change in opinion could be just the start of a move to the cold lasting longer. More positive activity in the strat I believe that 'could' give us more opportunities down the line into Feb. Loving the light this morning with some dark cloud bordering deep blue sky. My advice is get outside and enjoy it!
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Thanks Pomeroysnow, it's harder to predict for sure the outcome for the east I think when the fronts approach from the west. You can watch the radar 'Rain Today' I found to be very good as the showers come in of the coast in an Easterly/North Easterly. The hills will for sure get something so worst case scenario would be a drive up to Lara and walk around Glendalough!
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The East Coast normally benefits more from a E / NE flow but from what i am reading we seem to be looking to get some action from the NW with the rain turning to snow as it moves further east. I assume this is because it is hitting the cold air already in situ. Would that be correct?
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Looks better for the East Coast this morning and the met sound more confident http://www.met.ie/
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I have read a number of post's saying that once the models start to show 'zonal' way out into FI that they are likely to be correct because they model zonal 'better'. I am not convinced by this for the reason that most of the weather we experiance is derived from the jet and hence 'zonal', therefore the model accuracy for GFS, ECM etc at long range would be excellent. We know this not to be the case and so to me they have as much chance of being wrong when they show any pattern. The pictorial view of the results of the various algorithms are IMO only part of the story. The clever bit is when to trust what you 'see' and when you should apply experiance and instinct. It's a bit like a good 'doctor'!
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Just drove down to Limerick from Wexford the tops of the hills (small mountains!) were white. Things looking good for an attack from the East just hope it survives the Irish Sea crossing!
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Good question. I'm new here - was in Leeds until Easter - and as it was pretty much in the centre we got the snow whichever direction the wind came from. In 2010 it started snowing in November and we had 90 days of falling and lying snow after that. We were spoilt. In any winter if there was a snowflake to fall, we got it. I would have thought a nice northerly would do the job here, coming from the right direction and loaded with moisture, but what should we be doing the Irish Snow Dance for? Would a NE be better?
I think your options are greater skywarcher in Belfast. I would assume you have a good chance with a Northerly and NE flow. The showers tend to filter out I would imagine by the time they reach the south east. I think the key to the current synoptics is it's longevity. All the signs are that the general blocking pattern is around for the next few weeks at least and GP suggests that it's not going to be easy for this theme to breakdown.
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I remember looking at the Sat images in 2010 and seeing snow showers streaming across the Irish Sea from the tip of Anglesey with a NE flow. Am I right in thinking that from an IMBY perspective that wind direction is by far the best chance of getting the 'white stuff'? I can;t recall ever being that impressed with any direct Northerly.
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In the offcie at the moment in Dublin...Things went quiet for a while an hour or two ago but in the last half hour we have been getting very severe gusts (sorry no apparatus to measure). If the storm is tracking north east then I would expect southern scotland and northen england to be getting this in a couple of hours time.
Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
I believe it is possible if we get entrenched cold air and weather fronts moving up from the south east across the country. Our island appears to have 3 micro-climates of N, E&SE and W&SW. I guess a long stretch easterly could deliver but they are rare, as we know. Anyway looking like we may yet get some of the white stuff having consumed way too much of the black stuff over Christmas!