claret047
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
claret047 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy We had snow here in mid Essex without height. Start to Cricket also delayed at Colchester's Castle gfound. -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
claret047 replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Good morning everyone. I thought I would post the attached link, which indirectly relates to ice coverage in the Arctic. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds/ar-BB1i39Vg It is something I have often pondered- i.e. is the climate self regulating? I note that it is only one season but we have more ice than in recent years, although the article has not caught up with that fact. Kind Regards Dave -
I like the cold and snow, but it is not just that which enthrals me as far as the weather is concerned. Like you BFTP I like to see how the charts develop from one frame to the next and from 0Z to OZ, 06 to 06 and so on. How the change happens will be fascinating to watch. Computer technology, I believe, can only go so far in determining what the weather will be like to any degree of accuracy much more than 5 days ahead. Perhaps the computers read too much information and the tiniest nuances magnify/distort the final conclusions. Perhaps MIA and other software experts may care to comment on this. In the meantime we have about a week of cold weather in my neck of the woods with little chance of snow as things currently stand. At least the sun is out now and we have lost the North Sea clag that we have been enduring. Looking at the ECM chart someone posted a few moments ago it looks like a very windy and possibly wet spell is in the offing. I very much hope not as that is the last thing we want! I intend to go out this afternoon and enjoy the weather we have and not lament what we could have had, and suggest my fellow southerners do the same. Me I am watching the mighty Chelmsford City play Wealdstone inn the 4th Round of the FA Trophy. Perhaps @Ice Day and other nearby posters might wish to come along and support their local team.
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What a fascinating day of weather watching on here, with some really interesting posters from a number of more experienced members on this thread. It is difficult to keep up with all the posts coming through. Tamara and others make tis thread what it is. As far as balloon information is concerned is this instantly added into the data on these super computers or if it is collected at 00 hours not make it into the charts until the 06 charts and the same with the other reading time is the information part of the next output? I reckon the birds know what is going on better than I do currently. I have a sneeking suspicion that they have been peering through my lounge window at my pc to see the various charts I have bee4n displaying, and, as a result have eaten much more out of my feeder today than is usually the case. Normally I expect to replenish it every other day, but today I have filled it up twice! I must go know before I sound more like Bill Farkin than I already do. Enjoy the chase. Don't forget 1947 winter didn't start in earnest (Where is earnest? I hear you cry) until about 20 January and so keep the faith.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
claret047 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello David- Many thanks for your very detailed reply. Also thanks to @Paul for his informative earlier response. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
claret047 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good Morning everyone from a great fan of snow. Hoping what I am posting is not off topic but I would appreciate being permitted to ask a question of the more knowledgeable on this thread. Do all models use the same resources to collect their data in order to do their modelling? The reason I ask is that I believe the GFS is an American model (please correct me if I am wrong) and wonder if they have more information as far as modelling the area around Greenland. If so perhaps they can predict that area better than ECM or UKMO. Hopefully that is not the case as we all want the evolutions of the other two models to be correct. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello Jason. It was a deliberate attempt to be humorous and so I will not attempt to gloss over it. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You are showing too much emulsion about the current charts! I am no expert but believe that all the current uncertainty may be a good thing as it highlights that even with the most sophisticated of computers we are none the wiser. I do sometimes wonder if the technology is too developed taking too many factors into account and if it was less so a clearer pattern would be apparent. Am I just waffling on or do others luddites like me agree? -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
claret047 replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just a quick note from me to wish all on this thread and their families a very merry Christmas and a prosperous and healthy new year. I would like to thank David (MIA) for all his hard work in posting so much information on this site to make it so interesting and to the others for their great contributions. Judging by comments we are to date in a reasonable place as far as the amount of ice that has accumulated within the arctic and long may it continue. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello Dave. I am from Essex and am old enough just to remember the occasion. I have a book at home entitled the Great Tide by Hilda Grieve and is a very interesting read on how the aftermath of the flood was handled before the days of mobile phones and the landlines were out of operation. I had the pleasure of meeting Hilda a few times as we both worked for Essex County Council and she popped into my office to see one of our architects to whom she was a personal friend. If the book is still in print I thoroughly recommend it. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It is good to be back. My PC had a 400 error message that prevented me gaining access to this site and it was like having my arm chopped off I am now just playing catch-up to see what I have missed over the past few days. When I last was able to visit the site there was great excitement about some brutal weather in the early reaches of FI. Looking at some of the more recent posts I am not sure if this is still the case. Am i correct in this assumption? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good evening everyone. It is certainly fascinating watching the various model outputs struggling to pinpoint what is likely to happen on late Saturday let alone further ahead. Reading the very insightful posts is educational and makes this site what it is. I am old enough to remember the winter of 1962/3 and that is what made me interested in the weather. Things do not appear to have changed a lot from those days when it comes to predicting the fate of cold air entrenched over the UK. Listening to the 17.55 weather forecast on the BBC Home Service (the forerunner of BBC Radio 4) the outlook was always along the lines that milder air was going to sweep in from the southwest as per forecasts provided on European models whilst the USA model was stating the cold weather would continue: And so it did, with either the cold air meeting the block and retreating whence it came or going over the top of the cold air for the weather to remain frigid at the surface. These days of very powerful computers, satellites and more observation points one would expect prediction 3 or so days ahead to be more easy, but judging by the changes in today's modelling to my untutored eyes it does not appear to be the case. To those that know far more than I perhaps they could advise why this is the case with all that is now available to guide forecasters? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I hope you are OK now. What time was your appointment? Was it tooth hurty? BTW I agree with you as far as the current cold spell is concerned and that it will be far more resilient than the models are indicating. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
claret047 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I always wear a hat when I go out and so my hair is rarely cold -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
claret047 replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Someone on here a little earlier mentioned the Beast From the East and it got me wondering why we have not heard from David from Peterborough recently. I used to enjoy his postings. I trust he is OK and we will hear from him soon with his input. -
Both sets. The independent school is doing the correct thing by hopefully undertaking a robust risk assessment, whilst the state sector school is possibly using local knowledge as to whether roads are flooded/blocked by debris/wind strength is and is likely to be and whether their teaching staff are able to travel to the school. These days few teachers live in close proximity to their school. We don't know the situation and so it is a tad foolish to make broad-stroke comments without knowing the entire suite of facts.
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Good for you. Unfortunately every time people with the same attitude as you think they know best there are some who tragically end up in the morgue. I am a semi retired health and safety advisor. The number of times when I have investigated an accident I have heard wording to the effect of "I have always done this previously without any problems" Not only do you put yourself at risk by such a cavalier attitude, but potentially others who may be sent out to rescue you/retrieve your body. Going back on topic. Very wet here in mid Essex. Was very windy during the night with heavy rain, but wind is much lighter now. We await to see if the storm takes a left turn or if the more extreme weather forecast for later today does not materialise. A neighbour whose back garden backs onto mine has lost the cover to the top of his gazebo. I have found it shrouding my sun umbrella stand and I will have to return it to him when he returns from work later today. Stay safe everyone.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
claret047 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Re my final sentence. I am not that wealthy. I should have typed "days" and not "months " -
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
claret047 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello Mark, I trust you are well. The charts look fantastic and hopefully it comes to fruition. With light winds I hope we are not plagued by fog that could be reluctant to clear as that would subdue the daytime temperatures. What do you and others more knowledgeable than me think? I hope we have good weather as my wife has been through a lot lately with a heart condition and with blood thinners she bruises and cuts very easily which means she is constantly having wounds dressed by a nurse at our local surgery. Tomorrow she is having a cataract removed if her heart is OK for the procedure to be performed, I want to take her away for a few months around about her birthday on 9 October all being well and the weather does as its told. -
Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023
claret047 replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I will be looking to the east from Chelmo then. -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
claret047 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are they playing? Seriously you are that bit further north than us, although a bit nearer to the coast, but you could well be OK. It is a matter of wait and see as it appears to be all so finely balanced. Friday I am really interested as my wife and i are driving up to Huntingdon in the afternoon and there is great uncertainty as to how far north the milder air will travel.