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  1. ESTOFEX Issued a level 1 for the SW & Wales today (24th Aug) A level 1 was issued for parts of Great Britain and Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes. ...Great Britain and Ireland... At the end of the forecast period, the cold front enters the LVL1 area. It is emphasized by a maximum in the LL moisture convergence field which indicates a small moisture tongue. Along that tongue forecast soundings indicate the possibility that a bit (MU)-CAPE can develop which enhances the possibility for DMC. However, the development of CAPE and t
  2. Things about to get very interesting for Jersey, watch here - Jersey beach cam WWW.JERSEY.COM Discover St. Ouen's Bay, on the west coast of Jersey. With miles of sand washed by rolling Atlantic waves, the magnificent St. Ouen’s Bay is a natural playground for surfers and adrenaline seekers.
  3. What are the chances of the SE seeing imported multi cell storms from France tomorrow night?
  4. Looking promising. DISCUSSION Along a line from Jersey to Bordeaux, a line of storms has formed, featuring embedded waves/supercell structures has formed in an environment characterized my modest instability (400 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but strong wind shear. With an 850 hPa wind speed of around 25 m/s near the line, and the wavy appearance on radar, a distinct threat of severe wind gusts exists. Locally, some large (2-4 cm) hail may occur and, in addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level shear (10-18 m/s 0-1 km). The storm system is projected to
  5. Storm Forecast Valid: Mon 24 Jun 2019 06:00 to Tue 25 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 24 Jun 2019 03:02 Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE A level 1 and 2 were issued across western France and southern UK mainly for severe wind gust, large hail and tornado chances, and in Ireland for spout-type tornadoes. A level 1 was issued across southeastern Europe mainly for large hail and extreme rainfall. SYNOPSIS The strong southerly flow east of an Atlantic low has advected a layer with steep low to mid level lapse rates out of the Sahara and Spain northward into central France, where high
  6. Latest GFS run calls for widespread heavy snow throughout Friday with a low probability of it turning to rain.
  7. Does this now mean theres a higher chance of seeing a Kent clipper setting up overnight?
  8. Please correct me if I'm wrong but winds seem to be coming from more of a NEly direction rather than an ENE that was being modelled and forecast. Surely a Kent streamer has as much chance of setting up than a Thames streamer at the stage?
  9. Im surprised how light these showers are giving the very cold upper air. I was expecting more green and yellows on the radar
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