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  1. What is the ‘European Monsoon’? | Official blog of the Met Office news team WWW.GOOGLE.COM The so-called ‘European Monsoon’ is not actually a monsoon at all. It is more an ill-defined phenomenon that generally applies to a return of...
  2. I suspect the prediction is formula driven... If and I have no knowledge of whether this is correct, it is based on rainfall then the extreme rainfall over the past 36 hours may produce extreme outputs ie the result of a chaotic system
  3. Environment Agency do not warn of flooding from water run off as far as I am aware. This link, although for London, is typical for most councils highlights how tight the various agencies work together dependent on the alerts https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/severe_weather_and_natural_hazards_framework_v1.0.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjN4tCU7dXnAhWfSRUIHfGDAK8QFjABegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1Msk8N7FTtWP1o8EN1Ri_H
  4. Met Office Impacts Explanation. What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables? WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast timing is important as well. I do recall the Met office justifying the issuing of a yellow over an amber as the event was due to happen overnight when most people will be indoors
  5. End of Jan 77 saw the Blizzard in Buffalo with Snow depths of 2.5m Blizzard of 1977 - Wikipedia EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
  6. Potential Tropical Cyclones to be initiated later today for a disturbance over the Bahamas. Having suffered Dorian the last thing you want to read is "This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian". EC has it as a borderline Cat4 (by central pressure) this time next week of the coast of South Carolina. Its path being very similar to Dorian's
  7. Tornado touchdown reports nr Wilmington via https://www.wect.com/live/
  8. No what Im saying is that the viewing public become desensitized to the danger. The only analogy I can use is when you first pass your driving test you do not go out and drive at the speed limit( usually). Over time your driving becomes a bit faster as you get used to the speed. In the same manner because we are likely to see more and more Cat5 hurricanes people will be less shocked by them and will get used to them much like they do with Cat1 and 2's these days. What I am saying is that the ability of the media to report live gives a false sense of security when in fact what they do is extremely dangerous. I've often seen interviews over the last couple of years where people in the path of a 1 and 2 say " if it were a Cat3 id leave...."
  9. As explained by Dr Simpson https://vos.noaa.gov/MWL/apr1999.pdf However I note that the primary driver behind its conception was communication. As more Cat5 Hurricanes seem likely in the (not too distant) future i can foresee a situation whereby more and more people become desensitized to the alarm a designated Cat5 can cause . we have seen it over the last 20 years where hurricanes have become minor or major and TV news crews ( and to a degree chasers) give the sense that these things are not as dangerous as they are. So i could see a time when a six becomes a fact, if only, to draw attention to the seriousness of the risk involved even if that risk is no different ,mechanically, from a Cat5
  10. It seems to me that the margin for error in the forecast track for Florida equates to around a delay of 6 hours in Dorian starting its turn north... If the weather gods played Russian roulette....
  11. Looking at the latest probabilities forecast from NHC, and assuming you are travelling from Orlando, then between 8pm Saturday to 8pm Sunday your time it gives a 12% chance of 34kt wind.
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