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  1. Clearly A bust forecast...this is the video screenshot that is on Met Office Site yesterday with today's rainfall
  2. Just across the River Camel https://www.johnbraycornishholidays.co.uk/webcam/polzeath.html
  3. Indeed reflecting the more inconsistent topography there....or they were pushed for time and just finished it with a couple of clicks ๐Ÿ˜
  4. Reflecting the hills around Exeter rather than preference
  5. windchill to -48c..frostbite in 5 mins to exposed skin
  6. and while we wait for the 2cm to bring the country to a standstill Chicago is preparing to come to a standstill....https://abc7chicago.com/live/ because of the cold. they have had their high temperature for today ....-17c ...expected to fall to minus 37c ๐Ÿ˜ฎ
  7. In modelling chaotic systems there are times when the modelling takes a huge adjustment to change the pattern . In weather terms this would be the equivalent of a huge adjustment needed to move away from a mobile westerly pattern but there are times when the system is particularly chaotic and is extremely sensitive to adjustments that can have massive impacts. It has been clear that the models have struggled beyond day 3 and is sensitive to small changes flipping between extremely cold and mild scenarios every few days with the major factor being the SSW downwelling and my hunch is that until the downwelling has fully played out then the models will continue to be chaotic and that there will be surprises at short notice and reading between the lines of the Met Offices reluctance to do away with its cold outlook, I do not feel it would be a mild surprise.
  8. Are there two on that chart? One just off the north west coast of Scotland and another further north?
  9. And to add of course if FI was so believable we would all be snowed in in a 1947 style Narnia๐Ÿ˜‰
  10. Micro details today =major impacts and 10 days time... It's called chaos theory of which the weather and the models that try to predict are prime example. If you look at the ensembles you will see that after 72 hours the various runs with slightly different micro details set at initialisation go of at a tangent.
  11. Agreed....with the way the models are atm .... Risk of light snow with a few favoured places seeing heavy snow but equally a risk of rain and a risk of it being dry....๐Ÿ˜Ž
  12. As far as I'm aware the knowledgeable on here have always said the end of Jan beginning of Feb for the responses of the "positive background signals" to be actually felt. The issue has been the way the models have processed those "positive background signals" and output extreme weather charts since Mid December raising unrealistic expectations