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FetchCB

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  1. I think the issue is that a chart can show favourable conditions but cannot guarantee cold but if you goto this thread then you will probably find what your looking for and will help in your learning.
  2. Probably being pedantic but the weather models do not predict anything let alone the most likely outcome , which seems to imply that the model has a choice. Current observations are loaded into a computer model and using proven scientific formulas and mathematics , present the results. The reason why they appear to be inaccurate over the longer term is called Chaos Theory. For this reason there is ensemble forecasting which attempts to even out the chaos theory but at the cost of resolution .ie the results will be less specific to a particular region. The ensemble forecasting allows forecasters to give broad forecasts and allow contingency planning which along with seasonal forecasting allow for preparedness.( these forecasts use the terms such as "likelyhood","possible" and "on average" which are compared to seasonal averages) The prediction (forecast?) comes from human intervention which will use his/her skill and experience to identify the most likely outcome. It is for this reason that they are professionals and do that for a living. The biggest problem is that "us" amateurs take what is often a somewhat vague analysis by the professionals or look at the computer generated outputs and allow our own internal bias for weather preferences to "cloud" our judgement and then hold that initial analysis as being wrong. As you have correctly pointed out the weather has the ability to make fools of anyone ,including the professionals ( October 1987 and BBQ summer are the most obvious examples) , especially if they predict anything with 100% certainty beyond the 5/6 day period but then again where would the fun be in this forum if everybody only stated what was 100% certain and not what was possible
  3. Not sure if its mentioned this morning but isn't this the norm for GFS.....pick up Easterly at Day 10....drop it a few days later....then smell the coffee and return with the Easterly with 72-96h to go ? It is normally when the GFS reigns back the easterly that METO extended forecast mentions easterly and snow...and hey presto as if by magic.....
  4. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Its probably the opposite of storm surge with the water being pushed away from the shore Irma was an extreme example of this https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/09/10/why-water-receding-tampa-bay-irma-approaches/651323001/
  5. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Almost a perfect eye
  6. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    agreed 9mb in a little over an hour !!!
  7. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Just been watching Brett Adair who had gone down to Mexico City FL but has gone on to Port Joe which is further east as he said Mexico City had no elevation and no concrete structures and it wasn't safe....I fear for anyone that has stayed there
  8. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    If the current rate of pressure drop continues it will be very close to a Cat 5 classification of <920 mb...whether this translates into wind is a different matter
  9. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    it is only an estimation based on satellite images and all through the life of this storm the estimation has been ahead of the actual as if the storm is winding up from the top down.
  10. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Dvorak CI# 7.2 /Pressure 908.8mb / Vmax 146.0kt
  11. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Hello Panama City...my name is Michael
  12. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Someone broadcasting on Facebook Live at Apalachicola showing water inundation already
  13. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1DXxyYjlEALxM Broadcasting now
  14. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    Eye has contracted to 16 miles. The one thing that may hinder further intensification ( although I see no sign of it atm) is eyewall replacement
  15. FetchCB

    Hurricane Michael

    That is a mean wind speed the diagram below shows how wind speed changes with height in the eyewall there have been some well documented cases where hurricanes make landfall as one category but a higher one at the top of a high rise building. Indeed the building codes in Hurricane prone areas account for this phenomenon
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