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FetchCB

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  1. Near Record breaking High pressure over UK to start Feb if GFS is to be believed http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.35/epdf
  2. That second chart shows the North East getting the rather scaled down version of the NorEaster that dumped 12 inches on Boston, especially those at elevation away from the coast such as Consett at 270m ASL
  3. Yes apologies East. I understand what you mean however i'm not sure its that strong, 48 hours later it is gone replaced by a general area of low pressure As ever it is always a game of ifs and buts and the lack of organised low pressure in the med has seen many potential easterly's fail and for the high to sink
  4. I agree TEITS and understand what you mean. When you look at the extended text forecast issued at 2am from the Met Office they do seem to be describing a classic easterly with a slow attempt at a breakdown from the West. The period of interest on UKMO is the 48 hr mark With the low pressure in Iberia. 48 hours later UKMO moves this low pressure North eastwards in response to the energy coming from the Southern tip of greenland. If however it moves West to Italy then we could end up with something similar to this http://old.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910206.gif Interesting times ahead
  5. Two things strike me about this forecast. 1. when read in conjunction with the 10 day forecast tat precedes this one it is appears,to me eyes anyway, a classic blocking high to the North East with a slow breakdown from the west. 2. how different it is to the one at the top of the page which talks of "average" temps. I'm assuming that the text forecasts reflect Exeter's considered thoughts as opposed to just reflecting models in which case things could become very interesting
  6. North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

    Live feed from CBS_Boston where near whiteout conditions are being experienced Expecting 14 inches through this afternoon http://boston.cbslocal.com/show/cbs-boston-live-video/
  7. Heavy snow here in Peterborough, drifting in the stiff breeze off the Fens. Looks like a couple of inches settled.
  8. Currently met Office showing Heavy snow for Peterborough and St ives on Sunday from 6am through to 6pm so I would expect accumulations. The Met Office have a highly accurate short range model https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2012/ukv So I would expect that at this range they have a good handle on likeleyhood and impact of any snow hence the move to an amber warning and this is reflected in the Chief Forecasters text "There is increasing certainty in the track and location of the heaviest snow." The attached although related to Birmingham will be similar to other councils and highlights the impact of a weather warning given out by the Met Office http://www.birminghamprepared.gov.uk/advice/specific-risks/met-office-severe-weather-warnings/ Currently East OF England is at a level 3 cold weather alert https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert Given all of the above and its implications and consequences I have faith at this range that the Met Office have the best handle on the disruption that is likely to occur in Cambs
  9. The uncertainty almost certainly arises from the fact that Mogreps is not producing a conclusive path. Asis usual in these situations the issue of a warning has ramifications for civil contingency planning such as ensuring that gritters are on standby etc If they don't issue a warning for an area then no gritters are on standby..... Etc so it is less about uncertainty but possibly more about caution especially as warning talks about communities being cut off
  10. A nightmare ..yes but one they are not inexperienced in. I suspect that a lot of human intervention in the forecast over the next few days will take place. The servers in Exeter will be running warm of the coming days
  11. According to this paper it's done via satellite doppler radar http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JTECH1880.1 Ithink that also weather balloon data may also be used
  12. Too much guiness might be the reason for a yellow snow warning https://www.joe.ie/life-style/met-eireann-issue-fresh-yellow-snow-ice-weather-warning-whole-country-608747
  13. very light snow shower 5 mins ago in St Ives (Cambs)
  14. Hurricane Ophelia

    I wonder if it is to do with high humidity at all levels scattering light ?
  15. Hurricane Ophelia

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