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  1. I wonder if and when we see the effects of MJO phase 7. Which has a composition of an Atlantic high.
  2. Hi John, pink is high pressure. Have a nice stay at Mauritius. This MJO-composite would apply after 10 april.
  3. Yes, as always we have to wait. Latest GFS shows a typical MJO phase 7 chart.
  4. I wonder what the impact will be of the reemerging MJO in the Western Pacific. The composites show high pressure in the Atlantic west of the British Isles and phase 8 around Greenland. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/composite.html
  5. Thanks to paul123 for this chart. Date of SSW is 30. A quick drop of the AO. So I find the NH output of EC12h rather strange (quite positive AO at day 10) .
  6. A chart made by Paul123 (NL, https://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=Forum&articleid=138&reference=ref261795&threadpage=7) Day 30 is SSW taking place. Black line is AO blue line temperature De Bilt. On average we see a drop in AO. I find it hard to understand the EC 10 day NH chart.
  7. http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/m0_luftdruck/20180221-1200z.html This would be terrible. An easterly but no beast! Nature is creative in disrupting our winter chances.
  8. Hi Chio, so this signal is so strong, it overrules the MJO phase 7 Scandihigh which we 'would' see in 7-10 days time?
  9. Model output discussion - mid-winter

    Amazing EC control run this morning. http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/m0_luftdruck/20180128-1200z.html
  10. Abstract We investigate the connection between the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and different types of the Northern Hemisphere mid-winter major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), i.e., vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs. The MJO-SSW relationship for vortex-split SSWs is stronger than that for vortex-displacement SSWs, as a result of the stronger and more coherent eastward propagating MJOs before vortex-split SSWs than those before vortex-displacement SSWs. Composite analysis indicates that both the intensity and propagation features of MJO may influence the MJO-related circulation pattern at high latitudes and the type of SSWs. A pronounced Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dependence is found for vortex-displacement and vortex-split SSWs, with vortex-displacement (-split) SSWs occurring preferentially in easterly (westerly) QBO phases. The lagged composites suggest that theMJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~25–30 days following phase 3 (i.e., approximately phases 7–8, when the MJO-related convection is active over the western Pacific) during easterly/westerly QBO phases, which resembles the circulation pattern associated with vortex-displacement/vortex-split SSWs. http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~kfl/paper/Liu2014.pdf
  11. Model output discussion - into 2018

    You can check the EC-Oper, control and it's members overhere http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa-afrika/m48_geopotential-500hpa/20180115-0600z.html
  12. Model output discussion - into 2018

    You can find the individual EC-members over here. E.g. is control-member http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarten/euro/europa/m0_luftdruck/20180111-0600z.html
  13. Catacol, your comments about the MJO reminds me of this research http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/abstract
  14. Hi Catacol, where can we find these composites? Thanks!