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  1. I wonder if we get some impact of the MJO moving through 6-7.
  2. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf According to NOAA there is no influence of MJO in the coming weeks. "MJO activity appears unlikely to influence the extratropical circulation in the coming weeks. For North America, the negative phase of the AO is likely tied to the response of the signal crossing the Pacific over the last two weeks, and appears “locked in” for the near future. This is likely to negate any building ridging across the Great Lakes that would typically be the lagged response to the MJO crossing the Maritime Continent. "
  3. I really doubt if the EC-oper has the right scenario. This morning it's solution had support of 8% of the members.
  4. I was surprised to see your comment 🙂 Because the control is quite cold 11-15 days ahead.
  5. Just over the North Sea, this run is quite good, with low Tmax.
  6. Being Dutch I heard it was a temporarily high in combination with snow on the 19th of januar. Sneeuwkans= chance of snow. Blue line is the control.
  7. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?type=era But just 10 hPa temperature charts.
  8. A split on day 10 and a reversal of winds which seems to go on for some time. At 216h we see downwelling.
  9. So beautiful to see that enthousiasm of a professional. Happy New Year to all strat freaks
  10. This study uses reanalysis datasets and numerical experiments to investigate the influence of the occurrence frequency of the individual phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the interannual variability of stratospheric wave activity in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter [November–February (NDJF)]. Our analysis reveals that the occurrence frequency of MJO phase 4 in winter is significantly positively correlated with the interannual variability of the Eliassen–Palm (E–P) flux divergence anomalies in the northern extratropical stratosphere; that is, higher (lower) occurrence frequency of MJO phase 4 corresponds to weaker (stronger) upward wave fluxes and increased (decreased) E–P flux divergence anomalies in the middle and upper stratosphere at mid-to-high latitudes, which implies depressed (enhanced) wave activity accompanied by a stronger (weaker) polar vortex in that region. The convection anomalies over the Maritime Continent related to MJO phase 4 excite a Rossby wave train that propagates poleward to middle and high latitudes, and is in antiphase with the climatological stationary waves of wavenumber 1 at middle and high latitudes. As the spatial distribution of the convection anomalies during MJO phase 7 has an almost opposite, but weaker, pattern to that during MJO phase 4, the occurrence frequency of MJO phase 7 has an opposite and weaker effect on the northern extratropical stratosphere to MJO phase 4. However, the other MJO phases (1, 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8 ) cannot significantly influence the northern extratropical stratosphere because the wave responses in these phases are neither totally in nor out of phase with the background stationary wavenumber 1. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0476.1 So phase 4 was not so good for 'our' SSW?
  11. Catacol, you saw this tweet of Anthony ?
  12. Interitus is there any relationship between the time of the reversal at 10 hPa and downwelling. So, if the reversal of the winds at the level is longer, than there is more chance for downwelling?
  13. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329300936_Enhanced_StratosphereTroposphere_Coupling_During_Extreme_Warm_Stratospheric_Events_with_Strong_Polar-Night_Jet_Oscillation Latest of Karpechko. Seems to me that this SSW will be a non-PJO. So not enough downwelling. Please see the chart with 1-15 days after CD. Can anyone -in good English- write him a mail, to ask him what his opinion is about the SSW and the downwelling?
  14. Why aint Fawkes discuss the downwelling from EC of last night? Cherry picking.
  15. I think Meteogroup ain't interested. In the Netherlands they didn't even think about Glosea5 in their seasonal forecast till I mentioned it. Rather strange in my opinion.