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k19

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Everything posted by k19

  1. Im sure you've all seen this chart thrown around in the model output discussion and I'm not going to suggest for a second that this will happen, 15 days out, one perturbation (be it the control run or not). However looking at it I feel i must ask would this chart actually result in a large amount of snow in the northwest. We know that north easterlies and easterlies generally don't deliver for us, but this would produce quite a strong front, so would it be enough to overcome the pennine problem? To me it looks like a fair bit would reach us as we have a low sat of the south west coast drawing in some warm(er) moist air to the flow. But just how bad would it be? (hypothetically, of course)
  2. I've been trawling the charts, and they all seem to suggest that temperatures drop off quite dramatically as you reach a certain line across the north to north east as shown below: However I can't see any reason that high temperatures like shown are confined to the area they are. Here are the 850's for the same time: They seem to be fairly high up to mid Scotland, quite equal across the uk. The Dam Line also reveals little: The 564 line creeps into the the southwest, but that doesn't explain the temp differential in most of the country. Given the position of the high I can't really understand how any strong cooler atlantic winds could have a noticeable effect over so much of England. Can anyone enlighten me? Thanks
  3. On the netweather GFS charts there is "surface conditions overview" as an option- this includes humidity and dew points. The humidity during the day seems to stay quite low, however the dew points suggest that it will feel more muggy in the west at times.
  4. Ensembles suggest GFS operational is probably, in fact, an outlier following mid next week in terms of 850's which are generally a good indicator of surface temps. Saying that, don't read too much in to surface temps predicted even for this weekend. Although high pressure will now almost certainly dominate, the temperatures can vary wildly depending on exact positioning of the highi.e. warm upper air getting pulled from the continent...the pressure gradient that will allow this to reach further north. If ECM had a max temperature chart for 2m temps I'm sure there would be an interesting contrast
  5. GfS seems to be tending towards the ECM solution on this run, courtesy of the low being placed over Scotland as opposed to over France. Once it fizzles out, its position looks like it's going to allow the Scandi and Azores high to link up over us. See how the rest of the run turns out, but at the moment it seems positive. EDIT: Looking at ECM at T192, it's incredibly similar, at least in comparison to the 12Z GFS & ECM
  6. ...It is March BT. don't forget theres another band after this tonight
  7. Im in Liverpool strong wind making light-moderate snow look heavy looks very wet not sticking anything more i.e laying snow will probably be something we find out about when waking up
  8. In any event backtrack, i can't see a situation where the south of the region doesn't get a significant amount of ppn overnight, most likely snow where you are especially, and I'd be surprised if that was different anywhere else. The only thing I can see as a stumbling block is the high ground temps (for laying snow)
  9. Dew points seem to be incredibly low across the region, however with the temp still being above 0 we'll have to hope the ground freezes promptly once the temperature drops if we want it to stick.
  10. after that brief meltdown, it's now snowing in Liverpool, albeit lightly EDIT: Not sticking, to clarify
  11. According to that i'm under snow! Not quite true ha. Perhaps it's picking up light ppn above ground level, before it evaporates on the way down. On another note, Temperatures should start dropping like a stone over the next couple of hours.
  12. About an inch here, not even covering all surfaces though, the pavements are patchy.
  13. Been light snow all day here. Thawing faster than it falls though, no chance of anything sticking until the ground freezes, which I suspect will be quite a bit later.
  14. These are probably the last flurries now. The front may pivot but it looks a bit mis positioned to bring any extra dumpings.
  15. Seems to be dying a death now, can't see it getting more intense again, have about an inch here.
  16. Despite being below 0c not sticking to all surfaces here, any ideas?
  17. The current band was progged by 12z GFS to die off around midnight, is it just the intensity that leads you to think it will stick around longer? I'm not sure either way at the moment.
  18. Colder uppers are supposed to move in through the night, so it should be snow by tomorrow.
  19. Ian F mentioned it on twitter yesterday, can't find it in a sea of tweets though. I think you're right thinking of it, he expects that occlusion to sit out in the irish sea preventing the front fully passing over us.
  20. More likely it will stall fizzle out before the other band reaches us. The current band is attempting to travel north east, but as the front pushes in its starting to swing north, and will then try to swing north east, weakening as it does.
  21. Interestingly the met office yesterday suggested the downgrade for our area was due to an occlusion in the irish sea not mobilising, perhaps this is what we are now experiencing.
  22. Just means it didn't take the 12z into account. Gonna be interesting seeing how this band develops, if the GFS was over reacting on the extent reaching the north west more so it should become obvious through the night. The 18z might also provide further insight. In 2010 we were not predicted any major snow to start until late in the night, yet out of nowhere the irish sea perked up a streamer which buried us- I remember when it appeared BT suggested covering the cars with blankets as it would likely be a hail storm with the intensity it was showing- but it was just really heavy, unpredicted snow. About 5 minutes before it hit a red warning appeared!
  23. Found this, 5 hours old though: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BA0NHk3CYAAUFRR.jpg:large
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