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Buzzit

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  1. Buzzit
    +384 picture gallery and a massive fat euro high - I am expecting this for the first half of autumn so this would do quite nicely thanks - will be looking to see if we have a bit of change in the general pattern around 16th August as I feel the Azores will encroach a little before we get a full displacement to a Euro high dominated end of August and throughout September, around the same time as I expect the Atlantic Hurricane Season show a bit more life after the middle of this month as well. All conjecture at this point but we shall see...
  2. Buzzit
    Hi All, comparing the GFS 6z and 12z I stopped by +96 as the difference between +72 and +96 is so big as to consider anything after this to be FI. Will need to look at other models for any support but charts are looking a bit like another one of those "we won't know until it happens" scenarios.
  3. Buzzit
    Equals HOT !!! Decided to move to Hampton Hill from Twickenham so could get that extra 0.3c of heat - yeah !
  4. Buzzit
    If people are going to talk about averages then perhaps think about the Met Office averages for 1961-1990 Average Maximum high temperature for July : North Scotland 15.0c East Scotland : 17.0c West Scotland : 16.9c East & North East England : 18.1c Northwest England and North Wales : 18.4c Midlands : 20.2c East Anglia : 21.1c Southwest England & South Wales : 19.4c Central South and Southeast England : 21.2 Average Maximum high temperature for July 1981-2010 : North Scotland 16.1c East Scotland : 17.7c West Scotland : 17.5c East & North East England : 20.0c Northwest England and North Wales : 19.1c Midlands : 21.1c East Anglia : 22.3c Southwest England & South Wales : 20.0c Central South and Southeast England : 22.0c Hardly low to mid twenties ! Looks like everywhere is average or above except for a blip on Tuesday next week (which is already in FI)
  5. Buzzit
    I do not think you can go past +72 on the GFS 6z OP without hitting the realms of FI. Although much of the overall pattern is similar when comparing the 0z and 6z at +72 and +96 there are also extreme differences which have a big impact downstream, so I do not think we will be any closer to understanding the weather for next week and beyond until we actually get to next week... As mentioned by others, and in my view the options of an E/W Split, an Atlantic barrel roll or an HP reload are still all on the table and none can be discounted at the moment.
  6. Buzzit
    Since my summer forecast is going well here is my Autumn forecast - no Autumn until second half October at which point we will get a drastic swing to extremely wet with flooding, windy, and cold throughout all points of the UK, which will last through to end of November with snow in the UK well before Christmas (mid December). BFTV - Your analogues are highly appreciated for my own workings.
  7. Buzzit
    As per my May 7th post in the summer thread.. this is what I am expecting to happen for August. Yes it is at the ends of FI and will probably disappear off the charts for the next ten days but do not discount it happening There are also a lot of similarities with the current Atlantic Hurricane Season and the way our summer has gone so far in comparison to other above average July / August Summers in the UK (and with my expectation that same will occur in September as well)
  8. Buzzit
    The average high temperature for Manchester is 20c during July and August according to my reference points. When I look at the next seven days forecast for Manchester on Netweather (which utilises the latest GFS OP output) I see a high of 22-24c each day. If we are being relative to the location then it will actually still be comparatively warm for Manchester. Going past 7 days there is a potential drop to a below average high temperature - but given everything that has happened this July is it really worth banging a drum about temperature when we already know models are not the best at getting temperature correct at range, and temperatures for a lot of locations continue to resolve higher closer to the actual day. Perhaps the July temperature will cancel out the August temperature (if you view August as going to be a dreadful month) and end in a net neutral average... who knows
  9. Buzzit
    Looking West from central London (apologies for the lights)
  10. Buzzit
    Just me or can you trace a small line of mini storms from Weymouth to Rouen (only 3 or so) ? Is this the first wave coming up ? looking very isolated though..
  11. Buzzit
    I like the use of the term "resorts" to cover our seaside towns - feel like I live near Ibiza
  12. Buzzit
    Look at all the goodness out there - no moisture issues
  13. Buzzit
    Living in Twickenham, thunder came right over here as cell developed and intensified. It was beautiful crisp clear crackling like a firework.. It was so good my wife got frightened out of her sleep. I only hope everyone gets their fill over the next couple of days. (That wants it of course)
  14. Buzzit
    http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10901180 Lots of aftershocks, NZ Herald link has informative update plus short video / photos. I think it is lucky they have high building code regulations...
  15. Buzzit
    Nope it is actually a lot more positive for a heat re-load in FI (if that is what you are looking for).
  16. Buzzit
    Can we get a breakdown thread please so we have a chance to discuss any breakdown free from persecution while safe in the knowledge that there will definitely be a breakdown, and it will also give us a chance to discuss what the definition of a breakdown is and whether it means a pattern change or not. I get confused with musical breakdowns you see.
  17. Buzzit
    Do not need to go that far out I think +48 is where the difference is as GFS migrates the centre of low pressure from the other side of the Med to reside over Spain : This allows the North Atlantic low to be dragged down whereas the UKMO keeps the low the other side of the Med and this essentially blocks the North Atlantic low from being dragged down. Considering the location I would certainly wait for ECM output before making any judgement
  18. Buzzit
    I agree in a broad sense with you - is partly why I find recurring statistical anomalies elsewhere on the planet important for my own determination of what the next few months might hold. But by itself, an anomaly does not portend to tell us what the weather will be, and by extension (and as has been discussed many times in this thread) it could be claimed that anomalies also cause our forecasting models to endure certain headaches.
  19. Buzzit
    This mornings GFS 6z OP is absolute canon fodder - in my opinion the differences at +90 in comparison to the 00z are shocking to say the least. The verification stats for the 6z even at short range have gone down the plughole recently (in comparison to the other GFS runs) and the 00z GFS vs the other models has also dropped - putting GFS overall in a poor third at the moment. As I wrote on May 7th : Summer will be above average temperatures and below average rainfall with no northern blocking and my worry was that we would not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern by the start of autumn - I still think this will be proven to be the case. Good luck to those hunting for indications that the pattern will break and we will have a wet and cold August - not going to happen, and if it does I promise I will never post in here again.
  20. Buzzit
    Just joking
  21. Buzzit
    Don't say that in the model thread Who knows what you would be accused of
  22. Buzzit
    Yes has dropped now (not much of a drop though )
  23. Buzzit
    XC is reporting 31c for Heathrow Airport now -
  24. Buzzit
  25. Buzzit
    So any incoming infections get spread really fast on the Piccadilly line Was lovely going outside at 1am this morning for a walk so warm silent and still !
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