[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

In the sweet no rain spot  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Vesuvius said:

I like your style Buzzit. I’ll go one on one erm this time only as the last few weeks I would never win 

I just don’t want to go out first round

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

@TomSE12 time for a snow depth cup again?

Wow not heard of one of them for a while.. I’m in but want to go up against someone from reading  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Remember before the last snow I mentioned my knee was playing up which meant I knew snow was coming.. 

Well this time my leg has fallen off so it is baked on enjoy the snow everyone 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Decent effort in Acton

 

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Hi All,

Could not resist logging in after Paul has started reminiscing.. haha though I was late to become a member here (2009).

My knee which is never wrong tells me it will be snowing with laying snow in West London this weekend 

Hopefully I might even manage a storm chase post Covid but that looks to be a long long way away

Enjoy !!

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Finished here for the foreseeable .. 

Lucky people to the North and on this plane ?

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Something coming my way that tower is mushrooming

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Rumbles and droplets of hail here

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Was flying around Heathrow and my cape almost caught on fire.. 

Have now blacked out the conservatory to avoid roasting

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The current times are unprecedented- For the winter forecasts

- Forget the global seasonal models 

- Forget the 'teleconnective' forecasts 

The current SSTas / Arctic Amplifications & polar feedback loops will make it impossible to forecast based on these methods thats are being used- 

Makes this winter very exciting as we can guess what the top levels of the strat will probably do - Decending EQBO + weaker strat vortex due to the sun ... BUT

What does the troposphere have instore... More disconnect & more jet stream amplification..

So back to the original point - 'Current persistence' seems more logical to follow that variable forecast change based on analogues as they could well be out of date....

In support of Steves' comments : Any actual professional odds compiler will tell you that pattern matching is a sure fire way to lose all of your money. Anybody can take x amount of variables and create a table with y rows of data and then determine the number of x variables that seem to point to z result by filtering for the most obvious. Then many get upset when the same set of variables produce an unexpected outcome.

Even the National Hurricane Centre forecasts are based on pattern matching.. And when you give a +/- 20% probablility you will usually end out ok.. Back to nowcasting : if you understand steering currents then hurricane paths are rudimentary.

Earths weather is not a closed system.. it is constantly bombarded by internal and external variables.. 

If you spend enough time you will appreciate JH discussion of the 500mb anomaly charts 

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Agreed, I grow my own vegetables on my deck and have put in a few large lavender plants alongside a few other bee friendly species.. in the small spaces available.. Here in Acton there is a local bee keeper who makes fabulous honey (though production is small) and I love seeing bees in my very small garden 

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

At this rate I’m tempted to start a side business in air conditioning..

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

So the storm is gone now.. and frankly almost nothing London and East (rain or lightening) therefore temp max still in play

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

What a aaaaasrrrrggghhhh

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

I just saw a flash sitting on deck in London.. not expecting actual for another hour.. very unusual

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2019 Onwards]

Video worked for me thanks

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

I have grounded myself as I don’t like lightening strikes on my furry behind.. 

Have made an executive decision to continue to raid the fridge and await the show

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

It has been interesting following the Met Office local forecast for my location today (London Ealing).. 8am this morning had Tuesday as the only day to achieve 30c+. By 2pm Tuesday & Wednesday were forecast for 30c+ And now at 1am Tuesday Wednesday Thursday are +30c.. To me this is indicative of a model shift or change in background signal

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

Based on my future radar map.. there does seem to be more of a northerly movement by the 1150pm screen

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Looks that it is swerving east of London again though Surrey 

I agree is looking more Maidstone than London at present

[Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion]

And more than a few strikes .. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

I think some of our esteemed members have missed the CWC background signal .. Essentially the volume of rain increases in proportion to the volume of cricket matches.. With cricket every day there can be no doubt of rain records broken 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If it was heading east you wouldn’t get the arcing nw into the estuary .

I think people are getting stressed prematurely .

Absolutely Nick.. I think some of us need to chill a bit and go back to radar watching school.. precipitation (snow) is clearly forming into distinct heavy bands and now starting to build back to the west and north etc etc

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Am also Interested in the new band of precipitation wrapping around the formed low down by Alderney (Channel Islands).

Going to be lots of radar and nowcasting this evening..