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  1. In 2013 Nottingham did brilliantly for snow in march - though northern parts of the city did lots better. in 2010 there was a huge difference between parts of the city within a couple of miles of each other I suspect there will be large variations in the snow amounts again But I am sure this will be the real deal for the East Midlands- Thursday looks less snowy than the other days but Monday- Wednesday and hopefully Friday look great! Perhaps I am too optimistic but a proper easterly is the best direction for these parts ( and will prob be quite good further west as well!)
  2. I would think Nottingham should be quite well placed this week I have lived here for 20 years and the previous easterly outbreaks have delivered here
  3. The reality here is at the end of the week we will be in march - it's not a month of perpetual winter but one of wild twists and turns The low pressure brings the potential for a proper snow event on a nationwide basis
  4. Well the theme from the 12z runs is to consolidate the idea that the low from the south late on Thursday and into Friday is a real possibility and that this will lead to a potential historic blizzard in some places whilst others might witness a sleety mess If I were in the West Country and places like Gloucestershire and Wiltshire I would be getting quite interested in the potential now
  5. It's clear that the end of week holds huge potential for snowfall! I say let's go for the high risk, high reward setup given the time of the year! Also important to note it's not just th GFS that is showing a deep low but other models too. But in the meantime great snowfall potential from showers as well.
  6. I think all options are on the table for later next week. Anyone who claims otherwise is wrong- but the met office 6-30 day forecast suggests that the low pressure will encroach at a favourable angle so models that don't reflect this seem like the lower % at the moment ( these forecasts have been outstanding in the past few weeks)
  7. Nottingham did pretty well in November / December 2010 and in March 2013 although there was a vast difference in snow amounts from the north of the city to the south of the city. I am expecting Nottingham to do well until winds tilt to anything south of easterly. As to the low pressure on Friday I suspect it won't get anywhere near the north East Midlands but I might be wrong! The met office app looks pretty good for the whole week tbh- I really hope the spell goes out with an epic blizzard and then we hit spring quickly ; however, I suspect it will be a long while before we hit 18 degrees this year!
  8. The low from the south will vary from run to run . It does seem highly likely there will be a low coming up from that direction but it shape and orientation and northern extent will alter and this will dramatically impact on the potential surface conditions .
  9. The convection clearly showing on the models now. And updated warning for Tuesday matches this- yellow across most of the country just issued!
  10. It's very difficult to predict shower distribution for the Midlands Initially the East Midlands will do better for sure but by Wednesday it should be more widespread and that's even before the low from the south ( far too early to work out where that will effect!)
  11. A quite amazing ECM run! The low from the south is gAining traction- high risk for some but high reward at the same time! I am of the mind it would be worth the risk to perhaps see a truly great snowfall event even if it ran the risk of milder air eventually creeping in!
  12. 1 in 3 GFS runs is bringing in this snow from the south risk- I think that is a fair estimate of the chance of it directly hitting the uk of course if it moves as shown on the most recent GFS there is a risk of some milder air getting into some southern / south western parts
  13. The ICON seems to get far too much attention on here! It wouldnt surprise me if it was mentioned more than the UKMO / gem If it weren't the first out the traps so to speak I doubt it would barely Register anyhow the models look insanely good if cold and snow are your things! Maybe a breakdown around next weekend but given the depth of cold around by then it would surely be a snowy one!
  14. This GFS run is pretty insane The snowstorm at the end of the week would be historic!
  15. 168 ECM is epic and the incoming low pressure down south appears to be coming from a better angle