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  1. This low pressure looks like it could bring more precipitation than was expected in areas that don’t need it ! this could be winter or it could be wet!
  2. The danger with all these runs is that it looks like the sort of pattern that could deliver a lot of rain ( or transient snow) to some areas that really don’t need it!
  3. Nottingham ( Watnall) by the end of the 18th had had a staggering 101mm of rainfall against an end of month average in Feb of 47mm That means the rainfall % if it stayed dry is already over 200% for the whole month (and we all know stay dry it isn’t !) There must be a good chance of a top 5 wettest Feb across the country
  4. There is no way around it - this winter will end unsettled with the same sort of pattern that has been around for most of the season A complete lack of snow for most of the country though I was lucky to be in a tiny strip of snowfall last Monday in Nottingham so cant complain too much A lot more rain to come although less intense across England than during the first 20 days of this month
  5. Absolutely lashing it down in Nottingham I think flood defences are going to be tested greatly over next 48-72 hours Trent is predicted to reach about 4.3 metres at Nottingham which is high but over a metre less than 2000 but these predictions are increasing hour by hour The exceptionally wet 6 months has culminated in this potentially catastrophic flooding event
  6. 36mm of rain in Nottingham in the 12hrs to 6am this morning most fell from 10pm-4am many roads shut and rail lines closed the river Trent predicted to peak 50 cm higher than in November but no where near the levels of autumn 2000
  7. Well I am in Nottingham and the last 4 hours have been quite biblical in terms of rainfall loads of mini squalls and lines of convection dashing through we are not far off an inch of rain in the last 4hrs I think there are going to be some places suffering severe flooding tomorrow ( or even at the moment )
  8. Had about 2 hrs of heavy snow in north Nottingham the whole city is gridlocked due to snow plus closure of the a52 1hr 30 mins to travel 2 miles thus far!
  9. Very very windy in Nottingham multiple reports of trees down street near the station sealed off due to scaffolding at risk of collapsing
  10. I think we can all be fairly confident given the models , the various media outlets and just the understanding of how stable the pattern that is about to develop is that the last week of December plus the first 10-15 days of January will be mild , drier and a bit boring!
  11. Wow- this week looks diabolical . The latest GFS has serious rainfall across areas that don't always get a huge amount. It has a 2007 look to it with similar amounts to the event that caused massive flooding across the Sheffield / Hull area but perhaps a focus further south. Obviously we have had a drier period prior to this than in 2007 but not sure it makes a huge difference if you end up with 100+ MM over 48-72 hours
  12. Well for my location, Nottingham, this winter is up there as one of the most snowless I can remember. No lying snow, barely a flake has fallen - even in the run of mild winters of a few years back we had some decent snow at various points ( Boxing Day night in 2014 for example ) The model runs look quite incredible for the next week to 10 days with some exceptionally mild weather forecasted. I don't understand why this is so horrific- if it isn't going to snow then we may as well have balmy weather to enjoy and get out and about. However, the weather often likes to surprise and even in a relatively snowless location like central Nottingham ( we often seem to miss rain let alone snow) March 2013 and March 2018 ( twice) offered more snow than any winter month I can remember ( apart from November / December 2010) One area that needs watching is rainfall IMO. It's not been an exceptionally dry winter but I doubt it will be an average winter rainfall wise - another dry and warm summer may cause significant problems.
  13. Much like Supacell, to get decent snow in Nottingham there needs to be an easterly element These sliding fronts seem to grind to halt somewhere over the central midlands- it has happened multiple times in the last decade whereas an easterly aligned correctly can push a snow streamer broadly along the A52 ( a la February 28th- March 1st last year )
  14. Yes. The ECM does get snow quite a way north this morning but my memory still returns to : January 2013 and December 2017 where southerly corrections happened very last minute . To me the Herefordshire area might end up doing very well or somewhere like Shropshire .
  15. Living in Nottingham, countless snow events, which seemed centred on the area, have trended south at quite short notice ( sometimes even as little as 12-18 hrs out) Therefore I won’t be getting too excited / pessimistic until nearer the time!
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