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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Everything posted by Nick F

  1. Can make out the top of the NW London storm from my home in south London
  2. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-12 09:20:04 Valid: 12/04/2020 0600 - 13/06/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 12TH APRIL 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  3. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-11 12:53:20 Valid: 11/04/20 0600 - 12/04/20 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 11TH APRIL 2019 Click here for the full forecast
  4. A look at why in Spring we often see big fluctuations in temperatures over a few days View the full blog here
  5. Temperatures have reached 19C across north Wales this afternoon and although the rest of the week will remain mild across England & Wales, a cold northerly wind will send temperatures plummeting this weekend, with a risk of wintry showers. View the full blog here
  6. Normally I would be disappointed by the failure of the tease of a deep cold easterly flow reaching the UK as advertised by GFS a few days ago, but now diving across central/ eastern Europe, given the poor winter. But cold dry air appears to perhaps aid the spread of covid-19, so the prospect of warm dry sunny conditions under high pressure sèems to be a more preferable prospect, though the jury's out whether it will have much impact, warm and humid may be better, but that kind of airmass may not be available for a while. But, here's to some warm sunny weather to lift the spirits in these dark
  7. The strong zonal jet stream that's been stuck over the UK for weeks bringing lots of rain finally shows signs of buckling north to allow blocking high pressure to build later next week View the full blog here
  8. 00z EC showing 16C in Norfolk on Tuesday afternoon, taste of spring for eastern England Quite a bit of uncertainty developing with the upper pattern next weekend though between the 00z EC and GFS ops, comparison below shows EC digging a trough that eventually cuts off over western Europe, whilst GFS prefers to do it further east over eastern Europe while brings in a ridge over western Europe. Both eventually leading to high pressure building across the UK towards day 10 though, could be cold under high, if cold air is dragged in from the north prior to the high building a
  9. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-03-08 08:12:26 Valid: 08/03/2020 0600 - 09/03/2020 0600 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SUN 08 MARCH 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  10. There's still a chance for the rest of this month and even early April, I remember early April 2008 seeing lying snow via a northerly when I used to live in Tunbridge Wells, that followed a mild and pretty snowless winter.
  11. Quite a few flood warnings popping up across Kent and Sussex as result of the long spells of persistent rain today and yesterday Flood warnings for England - GOV.UK FLOOD-WARNING-INFORMATION.SERVICE.GOV.UK Check your risk of flooding: get current flood warnings, river and sea levels, check the 5-day forecast or use flood risk maps
  12. I had nightmare journey home from work at Heathrow and had to endure the A3 tailbacks earlier, only joining it from Hampton court direction, was about 25 mins moving about 1/4 mile. Some of the dips in roads after that ordeal had big lakes in them through south London suburbs so had to hope the car engine didn’t get flooded driving through them. Then to top it all off five ways junction just outside Croydon the lights weren’t working, probably rain related, so big queues on approach and chaos crossing this busy major junction on the A23, with angry motorists trying to all cross from 5 directio
  13. Can't help but think if today's Channel low was 30-40 years ago it would have produced laying snow at all elevations even with the same broadscale pattern, and not the fail-safe cold/dry sourced surface easterly flow in place like March 2018. But given the polar air ahead of the low is probably mixed out by anomalously warm Atlantic Tm air or modified more these days with arrival of the low, it's been a struggle even though we've had a number of channel lows over recent days. Remember last Thursday's Channel low it tried to snow, wet snow at lower levels, and only temporary proper snow settlin
  14. All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them 10am radar 12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning GFS EC UKV
  15. Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.
  16. UKMO and UKV are part of the same unified model as far as I'm aware, just UKV is run at higher res than its global parent, so picks up mesoscale stuff better than lesser res models at short range, but not as far out. Not sure why UKMO global is outperforming in the short range, they must have some secret in their supercomputers. Nothing too exciting for tonight, maybe some snow over higher ground in the south, as I mentioned a few posts back.
  17. As it is a short range model the UKV is run at higher horizontal resolution than EC and GFS, so perhaps why it could be doing better at short range with more mesoscale features.
  18. 03z UKV (which goes to T+120), like the 00z UKMO-GM, shows a channel low for Thursday, which it indicates sleet/snow on the N and NW flank of the rain shield as it moves east. 00z/06z GFS and 00z EC track the low east much further south entering western France from the Bay of Biscay. Be interesting to see if subsequent runs of GFS and EC correct the low further north, as UKMO has performed quite well with the trickier tracks of these secondary lows at 4-5 day range recently. Looking at the 50 00z EPS members for mslp Thursday morning more than a third show low crossi
  19. Unfortunately 12z EPS mean has backed away from showing a strong signal for height rises northeastwards across the UK days 10-15, with upper troughing closer to the NW. 12z GEFS still hanging on to the drier more settled idea after the weekend of 7/8th March. 12z EPS days 10-15 12z GEFS days 10-15
  20. Further rain moving in ahead of Storm Jorge likely to continue the risk of flooding across western and northern areas over coming days, but there are hints of it turning drier towards mid-March. View the full blog here
  21. Further rain moving in ahead of Storm Jorge likely to continue the risk of flooding across western and northern areas over coming days, but there are hints of it turning drier towards mid-March. View the full blog here
  22. I'm sure those affected by flooding will welcome 'boring' high pressure! I think the chances for lowland snow south of Scotland look like receding through next week anyway. Even Wednesday's low looks like a mostly rain event on northern flank for now.
  23. Both 00z EPS and GEFS H500 mean indicating building heights from the SW across northern Europe days 10-15, as troughing over northern Europe weakens and breaks down day 10 onwards. Whether this a growing trend or a false lead, like some recent drying-out hopes from models at range dashed, remains to be seen. We all could do with a respite from theses prolonged unsettled conditions. 00z EPS days 10-15 00z GEFS dsys 10-15 And if ridging does build NE, there is the question of where high pressure will build at the surface, quite a chunk of EPS members have low pressure
  24. Storm Jorge was named by the Spanish Met Service AEMet, not sure why, as it's going nowhere near Spain, but the Met Office are adopting the name not Ellen. Met Eireann could have named it for wind impacts which look worse for Ireland/ Northern Ireland, but too sIow I guess. Bit odd this naming system.
  25. Went for a drive to the North Downs on the edge of south London near Biggin Hill earlier to see some proper snow, first falling snow seen this winter, was trying to settle too before I left. Back home and was just wet snow and sleet down here in the south London lowlands, sun popping out now. Video near Biggin Hill around 10am below, temp was around 1.5C
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