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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Everything posted by Nick F

  1. 06z EC seems most keen to break out heavier ppn across Suffolk and Norfolk mid-to-late morning, before clearing out into the North Sea by lunchtime Ppn and CAPE for 10am
  2. East Anglia spot to be tomorrow morning according to 00z EC ... ... though given time of day, imagine the storms developing will be elevated. The upper trough passage, that's causing the large scale ascent of the warm humid plume of air around 850mb, a little to early to initiate surface-based convection during peak heating in the afternoon. As always, the models often struggle to simulate exactly where storms will develop, so by no means any model is correct with spatial distribution of breaking out storms. Suspect there maybe initian over the SE earlier before storms move NE acros
  3. Thanks for your detailed insight Dan for Thursday, indeed, timing of the passage of the upper trough not ideal, need it to be delayed a little more to realize best potential. Nonetheless, 06z UKV still developing some lively cells through the morning across SE England before clearing NE over E Anglia into early afternoon, maybe elevated storms though, given trough moves through before peak heating Some reasonable deep layer shear coming into play from the west which may organise storms to increase hail threat into the afternoon.
  4. 03z UKV ppn looking quite lively for Thursday, timing of storms to develop and their clearance east uncertain for now. As other have said, models maybe too quick, upper trough seen upper wind charts moving E/NE likely to engage warm, humid and unstable air in place over eastern England on Thursday, with large scale ascent ahead of the trough likely to trigger the storms. GFS probably doing is usual over-egging of CAPE, but looks to be some reasonable deep layer shear ahead of the trough, so storms could organise with perhaps one or two supercells not out the question - with large h
  5. There are many different types of thunderstorm - from single-cell storms right up to supercells. Find out what the differences are and how to identify them in this guide written by Nick Finnis. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/clouds/stormcloud-field.jpeg View the full blog here
  6. A look at the different types of thunderstorms View the full blog here
  7. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-05-09 08:55:40 Valid: 09/05/2020 0600 - 10/05/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 09 MAY 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  8. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-05-08 05:47:42 Valid: 08/05/2020 0600 - 09/05/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 8TH MAY 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  9. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-05-07 05:51:25 Valid: 07/05/2020 0600 - 08/05/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 7TH MAY 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  10. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-05-04 17:03:24 Valid: 04/05/2020 0600 - 05/05/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MON 04TH MAY 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  11. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-05-01 13:46:22 Valid: 01/05/2020 0600 - 02/05/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 01 MAY 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  12. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-30 09:30:49 Valid: 30/04/2020 0600 - 01/05/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 30TH APRIL 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  13. An amateur's guide to forecasting thunderstorms in the UK. View the full blog here
  14. The stretch of Normandy coastal area between Cherbourg and Le Harve always seems a hot spot for storms to fire ... area to watch. 06z EC spŕeads some of the pool of CAPE spreading north out of France this evening/ tonight across Kent and Sussex as well as southern coastal areas
  15. UKV quite bullish with pushing some strong cells north over the English Channel across central S and SE England this evening and overnight:
  16. Good morning, band of heavy convective rain moving north across the south this morning could bring isolated thunder, but perhaps a better threat of thunder for central S and SE England this evening and overnight, as shortwave and jet streak moving up from the SW arrives creating more forcing aloft. More in my Thunderstorm Outlook here: Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
  17. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-17 06:52:01 Valid: 17/04/2020 0600 - 18/04/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 17TH APRIL 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  18. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-16 08:47:01 Valid: 16/04/2020 0600 - 17/04/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 16 APRIL 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  19. Can make out the top of the NW London storm from my home in south London
  20. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-12 09:20:04 Valid: 12/04/2020 0600 - 13/06/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 12TH APRIL 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  21. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-04-11 12:53:20 Valid: 11/04/20 0600 - 12/04/20 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 11TH APRIL 2019 Click here for the full forecast
  22. A look at why in Spring we often see big fluctuations in temperatures over a few days View the full blog here
  23. Temperatures have reached 19C across north Wales this afternoon and although the rest of the week will remain mild across England & Wales, a cold northerly wind will send temperatures plummeting this weekend, with a risk of wintry showers. View the full blog here
  24. Normally I would be disappointed by the failure of the tease of a deep cold easterly flow reaching the UK as advertised by GFS a few days ago, but now diving across central/ eastern Europe, given the poor winter. But cold dry air appears to perhaps aid the spread of covid-19, so the prospect of warm dry sunny conditions under high pressure sèems to be a more preferable prospect, though the jury's out whether it will have much impact, warm and humid may be better, but that kind of airmass may not be available for a while. But, here's to some warm sunny weather to lift the spirits in these dark
  25. The strong zonal jet stream that's been stuck over the UK for weeks bringing lots of rain finally shows signs of buckling north to allow blocking high pressure to build later next week View the full blog here
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