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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Everything posted by Nick F

  1. The signal to maintain higher heights to our NE over Scandi / NW Russia is certainly still there in ensemble guidance ... but it seems a question of how far east the Atlantic trough will try and push. Operational runs of the models so far today pushing the Atlantic trough too far east. Always seems a long shot to get the Scandi high to back far enough west as we head through late November and winter, though no problem any other time of year, generally because of default of a deep tropospheric vortex close to our NW, that drives most of our late Autumn and winter weather, driving too much upper
  2. Not just a one off the idea of a Scandi/NW Russia high expanding westward, the models having been dropping hints in the medium range on and off and in various shapes and strengths for a few days now. And there's enough leeway in the ensemble guidance to support the idea too. Need the Atlantic trough to back off to the west - otherwise if it's too close we end up with mild southerlies or southeasterlies. Just hope the trop remains detached from the rapidly strengthening strat PV.
  3. A look at some of the worst named-storms to hit the UK over the past 5 years, since naming of storms by the Met Office and Met Eireann began in September 2015 View the full blog here
  4. A look back at October, which was dull and wet for many, with over 200% the average rainfall in parts of the east. Looking forward too to the prospect of drier weather next week. View the full blog here
  5. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-10-25 07:50:09 Valid: 25/10/2020 0600 - 26/10/20 0600 CONVECTIVE / THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 25 OCT 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  6. Squall line could strengthen as it arrives in SE England and E Anglia later, as one or two waves along the front run up from the SW and instability also increases with the waves from the SW. Broken line segments could evolve, which allowing deeper convection, could bring strong winds aloft to the surface, plus backing surface winds ahead of the waves could allow stronger updrafts to rotate to form a tornado, though consider it a low risk. My convective/storm forecast for today: CONVECTIVE & THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 24 OCT 2020 Issued 2020-10-24 09:13:59 Valid: 24/10/202
  7. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-10-24 09:13:59 Valid: 24/10/2020 0900 - 25/10/2020 0600 CONVECTIVE & THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 24 OCT 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  8. A look at what's behind the display of vivid autumn colours this year View the full blog here
  9. A look a weather phenomena know as the Mediterranean Episode, which brought extreme rainfall & destructive flooding to SE France recently. Also how climate change may increase such extreme flooding and not just in southern Europe. View the full blog here
  10. Morning, not posted in here a long while, but will pop in here more over the coming weeks. Big change from GFS at fairly short range after yesterday's 12z, on yesterday's 18z and continuing this morning's 00z its dropped its idea of the deep low sweeping NE across northern Britain on Thursday in favour of a low moving much further south and shallower across southern UK. EC been fairly consistent with running a low east across southern Britain. After that, fairly consistent from models for high pressure to build to the west this weekend, with a brief showery northerly Saturday but bec
  11. After dry, sunny and warm conditions through much of September, the weather will remain unsettled from now on and into October, as Atlantic low pressure systems dominate. View the full blog here
  12. After dry, sunny and warm conditions through much of September, the weather will remain unsettled from now on and into October, as Atlantic low pressure systems dominate. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/storms/storm-approaching-crop.jpeg View the full blog here
  13. The north Atlantic now has 3 hurricanes on the go, first time since September 2018. And not to feel left out, the Mediterranean has a Medicane brewing that will hit Greece. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/weekly/20200912/ec0e4061-1916-41bd-8fa8-68a9917fd8f0.jpg View the full blog here
  14. The north Atlantic now has 3 hurricanes on the go, first time since September 2018. And not to feel left out, the Mediterranean has a Medicane brewing that will hit Greece. View the full blog here
  15. August will certainly be remembered for its extremes of weather, from the heatwave at the start of the month, to the thunderstorms which followed, the two named storms and finally the colder, Autumnal end to the month. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/newsimages2016/storms/breakdown.jpeg View the full blog here
  16. August will certainly be remembered for its extremes of weather, from the heatwave at the start of the month, to the thunderstorms which followed, the two named storms and finally the colder, Autumnal end to the month. View the full blog here
  17. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-27 21:17:31 Valid: 28/08/2020 0600 29/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 28TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  18. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-27 21:17:31 Valid: 28/08/2020 0600 29/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 28TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  19. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-27 09:51:58 Valid: 27/08/2020 1000 - 28/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 27TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  20. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-20 10:20:47 Valid: 20/08/2020 0600 - 21/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 20TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  21. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-18 09:42:18 Valid: 18/08/2020 0600 19/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUES 18TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  22. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-16 22:41:28 Valid: 17/08/2020 0600 - 18/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MON 17TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  23. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-16 08:25:58 Valid: 16/08/2020 0600 - 17/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUN 16TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  24. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-15 06:59:33 Valid: 15/08/2020 0600 - 16/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 15TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
  25. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-14 07:31:55 Valid: 14/08/2020 0600 - 15/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 14TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast
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