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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Posts posted by Nick F

  1. Well fingers crossed the amplification in the upper flow early-mid next week comes off to allow a proper cold northerly that can bring a flake of snow even to the south. Because it looks, for now, that it may take second warming later in Feb to perhaps finally knock out the wretched strong SPV that has ruined the winter for cold and snow lovers thus far.

    18z GFS certainly putting on a good show.

  2. 2 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

    I am not “hanging on the word” of any meteorologist (unfair statement if aimed at me) given the fluidity of the science of weather, I was simply observing a stated possible outcome. 

    Wasn't aimed at you, apologies if it appears that way, just generally an observation of some knee-jerk reactions to pro met tweets over the years and last few days with the SSW, as if their word is the likely outcome. I agree with you, westerlies is a possible outcome still, particularly as the models appear to be backing away from a SSW ... for now and we're left with a restrengthening SPV. Though the warming is still on and a displacement of the SPV may still work in our favour. 

  3. 1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

    we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

    The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

  4. 52 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

    Still signs of major stretching and possible split down the line in the stratosphere polar vortex on 12z EC day 10, how this eventually penetrates down to the troposphere remains to be seen, some mirroring there in the trop, but can't really say it's coupled all round the northern hemisphere 

    Day 10 EC 10mb (stratosphere)


    Day 10 EC 500mb (troposphere)


    Day 10 EPS trop 500mb mean


  5. 8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Yes mate, my main point regarding my post was the vortex was showing signs of separating some what! Like I said earlier, we need a split vortex, and we need it to fall favourable... I'm not gonna even attempt to sugar coat this winter... There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. I did say we need a few tweaks.... But it appears some already think..... We are up @hit creek, without a tweak.. 😂Anyway let's see what the ens say... 👍

    I don't see any split in the troposperic vortex on the 12z EC,  just lobes of the vortex days 9-10, one over NW Atlantic/NE Canada the other over NE Europe/ NW Russia, with the UK in between. Still deep low heights over the arctic where the TPV is centred.

    As a result, any cold N/NWly shot on the operational run could be transitory, before the ridge between the lobes or troughs of the TPV collapses and the upper flow flattens out again to westerlies or southwesterlies.

    However, 12z EPS extended: ridging signal over NW Europe theme continues days 10-15


    seems rinse and repeat of a few weeks of unsettled then week of high pressure this winter. But high pressure never gaining latitude to bring proper cold. 

  6. 12 minutes ago, fromey said:

    This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!


    Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

    As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.


  7. 2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    To be honest though i was never quite on board in December, it never looked quite right, added to the fact that we have only just started using the GFS op for this purpose so its inherent biases are not yet fully understood, i am more hopeful with this upcoming event but concerned about the timeframe, also will the displacement SSW be enough to influence the trop favourably? It does displace the SPV into a favourable position but would we require a subsequent split to really have influence and also if we did get a split then where would the daughter vortices go?, the one thing on our side though with it being late in season is it might only need a significantly weakened stratospheric vortex in order for the tropospheric vortex to be able to do more of what it wants with the usual seasonal wavelength pattern changes late Feb.

    Yes, this slowing of zonal winds certainly seems to have more mileage this time round, plus some of the EPS members in the 10-15 day range have been showing a reversal lately. Seasonal weakening of SPV would be expected as we head through Feb too, which will help. Then if a major SSW occurs we need to hope the response is quick and favours HLB that would position favourably to bring sustained cold to the UK. Lots of hurdles to get over, that’s after we do get a reversal in the bag!

  8. 3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:


    nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there


    That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

    Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

  9. 43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Standard 46 update  .....

    Winter's over? 😆

    18z GFS hardly inspiring, bar brief windows on Sunday, then next Tuesday/Weds for the north, which could get cold enough certainly for the hills to get a covering of snow, maybe pushing it though to lower levels. Good news for the Scottish ski industry. The trend of the models of digging a trough in the Atlantic by day 10 and raising heights over SW Europe is not a good signal either. 

  10. 7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Hi Nick, with regards to the eQBO, if that arrives late winter and is possibly too late to promote favorable blocking, would that impact on our summer? ie blocking be more likely and if so, would that hint at a warmer summer or cooler one ?

    Good question, and difficult to answer definitively, depends exactly where the blocking sets up I suppose. If it's over Greenland/Iceland, a southerly tracking jet underneath may not bode well, though depends whether the corresponding -NAO is west based or east based. West based wouldn't be so bad, as we'd be on the warm side of Atlantic troughing, east based not so great. Block over Scandi not too bad in summer with an easterly flow being dry and warm.

  11. 50 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

    BBC describing tonight as Storm Brendan hitting Slough.. hmm! Not exactly true is it.

    "A large section of a roof was blown off a block of flats in Slough as Storm Brendan hit the town."


    Emergency services are at the scene, but no-one is believed to be injured.


    Quite! Storm Brendan is way to the NW centred between Iceland and Scotland. This evening's gales in the SE related to open wave secondary low to the SE of parent Brendan low. 


    I suppose one could argue its part of the circulation of the big low to the NW, but looking at current gusts you can see swathe of gales in the SE is quite separate to the strong winds around Brendan low to the NW.


    Two fence panels down in our garden, but as it's dark before and after I come home from work, not getting fixed until weekend!

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