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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Posts posted by Nick F

  1. Looked like it was an epic 12z GFS shaping up as it was rolling out ... but we miss the deep cold thrust going into Scandi to east.

    However, an injection of deep cold direct from the arctic into E/NE Europe and NW Russia not a bad thing IMO, should pressure build back to the NE to bring an easterly again, it would source this pool of deeper cold dropping down from the TPV and obviously increase the chance for a BFTE. However, pull the lobe of the TPV a little further west by 500 miles as it drops south, then we could see a bitter northerly.

    Should we have to sit it out with high pressure in control, yes we still may have the inversion shallow cold, but for snow potential other than flurries, we need to hope MLB may position favourably eventually to let in deep cold at some point. But there is a risk of waiting and waiting while a less favourable change in upper flow pattern comes along, perhaps as the TPV returns towards Greenland, with sinking HLB as low pressure fills over southern Europe, allowing back in the Atlantic.

    • Like 4
  2. EPS means at T+300 could be worse, at least there are low heights over SW Europe/western Med and +ve height anomaly over Scandi. With weak (compared to the norm) troughing signal in the means to our west and NW.

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-221120.thumb.png.86af3a210f855811110fa9c2a73a33fe.png

    Trouble is, there is no strong signal for Scandi block to extend far enough west in the guidance, due to the pressure imposed by the TPV over Greenland extending out over the NE Atlantic, plus lack of jet energy diverting into SW Europe - which with time comes cut-off with all the jet energy going NE.

    Still, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how long the blocking signal to our east and NE will hold back a return to mobility from the Atlantic.

     

    • Like 7
  3. 22 hours ago, iand61 said:

    I suppose it very much depends on where you live but in my part of the country the Boxing Day 2015 floods (storm Eva I think) would be up there as the biggest storm weather event since they started naming them.

    It brought horrendous flooding across Lancashire and West Yorkshire although in my town the flooding from Storm Ciara was probably worse even though the rainfall total was less than the 125mm we got on Boxing Day.

    question Nick, am I correct that it was Ciara as I thought it was in early February but your saying January.

    either way it was a bit moist as we say in these parts with the gale force wind blowing the rain through the barge boards until it dripped through the ceiling at one stage.

     

    Hi, yes, it was indeed 8/9 February, have corrected it.

     

    • Like 1
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  4. The signal to maintain higher heights to our NE over Scandi / NW Russia is certainly still there in ensemble guidance ... but it seems a question of how far east the Atlantic trough will try and push. Operational runs of the models so far today pushing the Atlantic trough too far east. Always seems a long shot to get the Scandi high to back far enough west as we head through late November and winter, though no problem any other time of year, generally because of default of a deep tropospheric vortex close to our NW, that drives most of our late Autumn and winter weather, driving too much upper flow energy over the UK and towards Scandi.

    • Like 8
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