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cooling climate

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  1. A change to much colder wintry conditions courtesy of stratosphere warming continues to gain momentum and should soon be in range of the ECM model.H500 anomaly charts and ncep 8-15 day charts should soon pick up this change.
  2. A stretched and displaced vortex this winter left some areas warmer (Spitzberg especially) and other areas colder but with a good possibility of a colder spring and summer again we should see the positive trend in multi sea ice, volume, area and extent continue with 2012 standing out as the anomaly rather than the trend or norm.
  3. Yes growing signs of a cold snap (spell) developing perhaps around the 19th onwards. Good strat warming forecast which would probably be the instigator of this and could possibly lead to colder and perhaps wintry incursions during April as well. Loving the dry spell but we have plenty of time for warmth and a couple of spring snowfalls would not go amiss.
  4. Regardless of what has happened in the last three months it has no bearing on what will happen over the coming weeks and I for one am still hopeful of seeing some snow,perhaps even laying snow before March or April is out.
  5. The GFS starting to consistently model what looks very much like a final warming. This May well be worth following as high latitude blocking can still deliver something noteworthy and potent in mild to late March.
  6. Winter 88/89 has always stuck out for me as being a memorable winter for all the wrong reasons very mild,wet and windy but this winter has over shadowed that I think. Stratosphere wise though they were two very different winters.WInter89 the vortex was very strong and positioned in situ over Greenland and the pole. This winter the vortex has been displaced with one section as we know over south east Canada which is not such a bad position had we had a negative QBOand more in the way of stratosphere warnings. We also saw persistent northeast Pacific ridges which is also a good synoptic (think 09/10 for example) to have had,had we seen greater warming and more in the way of blocking. An Alaskan vortex is normally a killer for winter as it promotes zonality across the state's which normally means similar for us. I could be way off the mark here but I believe a moderate to high active sun this winter led to the very strong QBO which scuppered the chances for stronger stratosphere warnings and blocking.
  7. Near to the start of this winters strat thread I linked to a recent paper which challenges the theory that during solar max and w QBO sudden strat warmings are more common. I believe there is strong data to support the cold strat w QBO theory.
  8. The models more in line with what I would expect to see going forward. Expect to see more upgrades in future runs for a colder and perhaps more wintry outlook.
  9. With over 50 years behind me this will be the first winter where there has not been a single flake of snow during the three winter months (Dec, Jan and Feb). I thought 88/89 was bad. I am reasonably confident however of seeing something more wintry during March however with much more in the way of northern blocking.
  10. To answer all three questions in one I will say I am not denying there has been warming but that stoped some 16 years ago. Before then there has been cooling and warming periods which would tie in with natural climate cycles PDO, AMO, NAM, enso etc but the warming we have seen in the eighties and nineties I believe was due to a very active sun lag effect during the 20th century which is now going in the opposite direction. The IPCC said the warming would go on unabated reaching Xc by the year blah, blah. Then when the warming went into hiatus as it has done they ran around like headless chickens trying to explain it and finally came up with enso and PDO cycle to explain the pause. How come they missed this. The truth is they probably didn't it is just a poor excuse for the missing warming. There are so many other things I could go into but to tell you the truth I really can't be bothered I know the warmists have their blinkered view and the sceptics have theirs and to keep going over and over the same arguments is tidious to the extreme. If there had been warming for the past 15 years or more then there would be no argument but there hasn't pure and simple.
  11. You do not have to explain anything to me Voidy. There has been no warming for years apart from small fluctuations in temperature up and down,but if the sun is to go into hibernation ( most pointers are looking that but you probably can not see that either) then there is only one way the temperatures are going and that is not up.
  12. Yes you are right. The way its worded is not very good but as you say a westward movement of air is of course a easterly or negative QBO.
  13. Climate change has been going on for millenia and will continue to do so.
  14. Ian Pennell who opened a thread in the Autumn entitled late Autumn and winter 2013/14 mild stormy short cold snaps later. His long range forecast made on the 20th of October was virtually spot on and the reasoning behind it was also excellent, 95/100 I think. One of the most accurate forecasts I have read in years.
  15. You are getting very fond of putting people down. Do you remember Mr Ian pennell from the late Autumn and Winter thread 2013/14 who made a very well reasoned and explained forcast back in October 2013. He then updated on the 3rd of December saying that he forecast for the winter was looking very good to which you replied "Come on you COMIC its the 4th of December and you seriously believe your forecast is correct for WINTER after just 3 days today being the 4th. His forecast has been virtually spot on together with his reasoning and made more incredible by the fact that it was made in October. I wonder if you will take your blinkers off for long enough to acknowledge this and withdraw your insulting comment. Netweather would do well to sign him up for their longrange forecasting team.As for the Meto I love the way they portray themselves as all knowing after the event. May be they should contact Mr Pennell themselves.
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