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    Aberdeen ~ 156m asl
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  1. Yup, never a good trend. It looks increasingly likely to me that if we are to get any cold air, it will now be from the east rather than from the north. The current window for GL height increases is diminishing and my fear is that the forecast SSW results in a displacement to N. America.
  2. In Dyce at the moment and some hefty showers have come through. Could be an interesting drive home later if this keeps up.
  3. A dusting of snow at home this morning but as reported by others, nothing in the city. There were a couple of flurries earlier but the sun has now made an appearance.
  4. Just been going through the GEFS and there are some real blinders in there. Out of the entire suite there are maybe only 2-3 runs where the brutal cold in the second wave doesn't hit the UK. It is also clear that there is a growing trend for lows to encroach from the south further enhancing the gradient.
  5. Another excellent GFS run there and very reflective of the ensemble mean earlier. Epic blizzard being shown at the end of the reliable time frame -that would rival the greats of yesteryear.
  6. Excellent run from the GFS and shows how important it is for that chunk of deep cold heading under the block to help carve the flow back towards the east. Hopefully this trend will be continued through today's runs.
  7. I did say 'almost' within touching distance. There is only one way that cold pool would head though if it verified like that. Whilst the GFS isn't a bad run you can't help thinking given the synoptic background it would almost be wasteful in not achieving full potential on offer. On reflection, taking a blend of GFS, UKMO, GEM & ICON would probably be ideal for the UK as a whole. Hopefully ECM will align with this blended solution.
  8. That is one crazy ICON run. At 180hr there is pocket of -28C 850hPa air almost within touching distance of the BI!
  9. Altostratus

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Yes, the easterly looking less likely this morning but still plenty to be positive about moving forward. The PV remains fragmented, the jet continues to take a southerly track and there are tentative signs the arctic high may exert an influence later down the line.
  10. Altostratus

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    Looks like a bit of stand-off between the Atlantic and the Scandi block initially. If you look through the archives a similar occurrence occurred prior to the Feb 91 outbreak and it took a couple of attempts before the block could extend westwards. If the evolution is to be similar to Feb 91 (albeit with less cold air in situ), as already mentioned, if would be helpful if that PV chunk in NE Canada shifted N/NW'wards.
  11. I guess it all hinges on whether or not the brief north easterly can deliver a decent layer of snow before the settled clear conditions takeover. Without the expansive snowcover -19C would certainly be off the table.
  12. Altostratus

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    I haven’t had a chance to check how the ECM Op run fits within its suite but if the Op is well supported, given the timeframe and higher resolution of the ECM model vs the lower resolution of the GFS you’d have to favour the ECM outcome. The GFS is good at identifying major pattern changes but it has always struggled when dealing with the details i.e. small scale features such as shortwaves. Given how sensitive the weather in the UK is to these minor features and the knock-on effect during major changes, you would think the higher resolution models have a better handle on this. Access to the global MORGREPS would help but from memory the ECM is still run at a higher resolution when it comes to the medium range. As others have noted, the UKMO is also in support and historically this model is very conservative. Personally and longer term I’m looking for a ridge to extend into Greenland after the initial easterly - that would be the classical evolution. Anyway eyes down on the 06z...
  13. Nice covering at home and in the city. Hard to tell depths as the wind is blowing it around.
  14. Wind really picked up here in the last 30mins or so. Some impressive gusts starting to filter through.