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    Aberdeen ~ 156m asl
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  1. Yes, the easterly looking less likely this morning but still plenty to be positive about moving forward. The PV remains fragmented, the jet continues to take a southerly track and there are tentative signs the arctic high may exert an influence later down the line.
  2. Looks like a bit of stand-off between the Atlantic and the Scandi block initially. If you look through the archives a similar occurrence occurred prior to the Feb 91 outbreak and it took a couple of attempts before the block could extend westwards. If the evolution is to be similar to Feb 91 (albeit with less cold air in situ), as already mentioned, if would be helpful if that PV chunk in NE Canada shifted N/NW'wards.
  3. I guess it all hinges on whether or not the brief north easterly can deliver a decent layer of snow before the settled clear conditions takeover. Without the expansive snowcover -19C would certainly be off the table.
  4. I haven’t had a chance to check how the ECM Op run fits within its suite but if the Op is well supported, given the timeframe and higher resolution of the ECM model vs the lower resolution of the GFS you’d have to favour the ECM outcome. The GFS is good at identifying major pattern changes but it has always struggled when dealing with the details i.e. small scale features such as shortwaves. Given how sensitive the weather in the UK is to these minor features and the knock-on effect during major changes, you would think the higher resolution models have a better handle on this. Access to the global MORGREPS would help but from memory the ECM is still run at a higher resolution when it comes to the medium range. As others have noted, the UKMO is also in support and historically this model is very conservative. Personally and longer term I’m looking for a ridge to extend into Greenland after the initial easterly - that would be the classical evolution. Anyway eyes down on the 06z...
  5. Nice covering at home and in the city. Hard to tell depths as the wind is blowing it around.
  6. Wind really picked up here in the last 30mins or so. Some impressive gusts starting to filter through.
  7. As reported above, alpine snow, even in Town.
  8. A dusting of snow at home but doesn't appear to be anything in town
  9. Disappointing isn't it! We need a clean northerly flow as this slack flow is doing us no good whatsoever. I went home for lunch and one of the heavier bursts gave a dusting of snow, but nothing but rain/sleet in the city, as expected.
  10. Yup temperatures aren't great (haven't checked dew points but presume they are sub zero) but with light winds and heavy bursts, hopefully some evaporative cooling can swing the balance in our favour.
  11. Radar shows a large shower heading in this direction...hopefully it maintains current trajectory and doesn't fizzle out too much.
  12. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Another good run from UKMO and given the position of that low, I don't think it would topple either. I wouldn't be surprised if we are witnessing the classic GFS over-progressive bias here. A high just to the north of the UK looks likely, with hints of drawing in colder air from the East.
  13. Similar story here. I was expecting to get some sleet but was surprised to see everything turn white so quickly, particularly given all the rain.
  14. Heavy snow and gusty winds here. Nice covering already.
  15. Scotland - Weather Chat

    I'm not far from the city centre and it's very close to snow as I look out the window at the moment. I suspect it will be all snow further in land.