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snowking

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snowking last won the day on November 5 2014

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    elsenham, nw essex 97m asl

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  1. In NW Essex we certainly did. I can remember two fairly substantial snowfalls, the one that sticks in the mind the most was on a Sunday afternoon where we had somewhere close to 6 inches come down (helps that we had a little bit of elevation) Yet despite all of the incredible snowfalls of those winters, our absolute largest was actually in Feb '12, where we had somewhere between 9-10 inches of powdery gold.
  2. I'm exhausted, I've never seen anything like this in some 16 years of internet weather watching. I'm off to Amsterdam tomorrow and will be glad of the break to be honest to try and recover a bit! I think we all have to accept that even what we are seeing here feels unlikely to transpire exactly as depicted by our 'stella' friend the 18z, but if anything even close to this comes off then the mood in here this time next week will be very buoyant. Anyway, where is @lorenzo - isn't this the pub run you've been waiting for Tony?
  3. -17c into parts of the south I would say breath-taking...but taking breath could get quite tricky in those conditions
  4. Just the smallest hint of the unspeakable "TS" word off the back of that 12z ECM run Though nothing especially impressive totals wise it should all of course be taken with a huge dollop of salt at this range
  5. Only 1 run with more twists and turns to come I'm sure so we should keep this in perspective, but I must confess that when you compare things to yesterday's 12z: I couldn't help but give out just a little
  6. It will be either per 3 or per 6 hours, depending on the timescale the TWO charts use. If their charts are displayed in 6 hour intervals then it will be per 6 hours...ditto 3
  7. Okay, we're splitting hairs then over terminology here as to what constitutes "cold" and "very cold" in a long range text forecast which has no official terminology key to equate the prose used to specific parameters (and for a good reason - no forecast at that range is going to be specific enough to give exact temperature profiles, wording will always be a little deliberately vague), but in the 16-30 day outlook: "At the start of this period it is likely to stay cold for most" I.e. - the cold already in place from the previous forecast period remains in place at the start of this next forecast period. So I think you're having a bit of a worry about nothing, there's nothing in that forecast that is any different from the expectations we already have at this stage Yes, I find it more fun these days to sit and obseverve the chaos and just chip in where I think it might be helpful. The main nuances we have seen in recent days stem largely from the energy distribution of the jet stream over the Atlantic crashing into the high around our shores and beyond, particularly through to Wednesday. For this reason, and in addition to the current happenings in the stratosphere, I'm still waiting until then to be absolutely confident of just where our high is headed to and what may be allowed to slide underneath it as a result. That said, I just have that feeling that we are on the verge of something special, as I think I mentioned when I last posted in the MOD thread earlier in February. Back then, when you looked at the scale of the stratospheric warming event in conjunction with the near record tropical forcing, it was pretty clear that we would have to be exceptionally unlucky, even by UK standards, to not get at least some notable cold for the time of year in. If everything goes well in the next few days, we could have something even more special than that Fortunately I'm in Amsterdam Tue-Thur so either way, I should be able to keep myself occupied...
  8. I'm not really sure how you managed to conclude that from the forecast you posted. The 'dry' part applies to the first few days of the forecast period - ie Friday to Sunday, as is currently expected anyway. They then mention the risk of snow start to increase, especially for the South and East, into the following week - ie the week commencing 26th February - as is also currently being modelled. So for this region, a pretty extraordinary update really and I'm not sure we could really expect more than that at this stage.
  9. It's probably worth re-iterating Nick's comment from earlier (as in BA Nick....Mr T's long lost cousin) that the EPS do tend to have a habit of following the op rather closely at times with a rather mixed track record. But when you compare the EPS mean and op side by side: For what looks like almost all of the 51 perturbations to be incorrect at such a short lead time, if the entire suite is wrong then I don't think we could ever learn to trust it again. At least if the UKMO climbs down we're just looking at a couple of deterministic runs having been wrong. And in time, with snow shovels in hand, we could learn to forgive and forget and at least remain friends.
  10. Sadly, I think we know by now Tim, those Weather.us charts are hugely overblown. I tend to find that if you go into the settings and convert the scale from inches to cms, for some reason you get a slightly more realistic view (of course as a male I would usually advise converting from cms to inches...) That yields this at +240: From experience this winter so far, that tends to be about 75% true. So with 2-5cms generally shown at lower levels, I would advise more realistically perhaps 0-4cms, with the undercut towards the end of the run clearly visible in the South-West. @Nick L usually has some ECMWF access with a far more realistic scale. I'm only theorising here as to why the Weather.us charts are so wild with their estimates, but I imagine there is a fair bit of parameter configuration available when building out these charts and it may be that when viewing these with the inches scale, the more typical US snowfall ratios of around 10:1 (snowfall to rainfall equivalent) are used, where as when converted to cms for a more metric scale-ified europe, the ratio is changed to something more realistic for these parts.
  11. "Data issues" you say.....a clear sign that @nick sussex is running dangerously short of netweather branded prozac and has had to bust his way into the control room at Reading to deploy his last resort - some custom data. He even did a great job of trying to make it look realistic by drawing the -6c 850mb line right across the M4 at T+240: For those saying they can't remember the last time the models were this volatile at such a short lead time, I can sadly - December 2012. Though in fairness then, the models did, one by one, drop the idea completely rather than flip-flopping from run to run. By the way that op run, whilst looking impressive, at face value isn't all that snowy until that potential undercut right out at 240...but let's get some sort of agreement on pattern first before we look at anything like that
  12. You need to be careful in recognising that the meteociel strat. charts only show temperature, not geopotential heights. The vortex is not simply a very cold blob of upper air, it is an area of intensely low geopotential heights. So if we look at the geopotential heights for the same period on the GFS: We still see our old foe the vortex spinning away over Canada - though surely after continuous warming thrust its way throughout the period, significantly weaker than you might expect. The good news from the above is the fact that it is displaced away from Greenland, and with a big positive geopotential wave visible across most of the eastern hemisphere it looks favourable for blocking to our North/North East (and, just potentially, our North West too) However, there are two things to bear in mind: 1. This assumes that the stratospheric synoptic setup imprints itself exactly upon the troposphere (which is far from a given) 2. I'm doing that thing I encourage everyone never to do in dissecting a single operational run out at +384 Complicated all this stratosphere stuff!
  13. I'm normally jealous of the snow reports coming in on this thread but this morning I'm more jealous of the number of new puppy reports coming in
  14. Should I bite....should I...ohh, go on then. That thick red line on the graph above shows you where 'average' sits. Not only is every single peturbation until at least Thursday but indeed the entire mean remains below average throughout the next 16 days. There is, as always, some very dramatic posts in here again this morning and I'm still scratching my head as to why - I've said it before and I'll say it again, people were spoiled by the 2009-2013 period and tend to forget just what "standard" winter fare really was/is for the UK. But each to their own.
  15. The ECM run over in Weather.us is well worth a look for those of you of a cold persuasion Plenty of showers feeding in to Kent on Sunday night into Monday, big stalling snow event out West on Tuesday followed by and area of snow moving NW out of the continent (just like the good old days) into Wednesday across much of England. Then another area of snow moving North across us Thursday into Friday, before a snowy breakdown for most away from this region on Saturday - which will almost certainly not be the case come T+0 with things likely to be backed even further west going from past experience. The first bet to watch is whether Tuesday's front even makes it across the Irish sea - probably 50/50 right now looking at this morning's ECM, whilst the ever progressive GFS has it all the way across to us. I said it last night over in the model thread but once you get that depth of cold in across anomalously warm seas, big snowy surprises start to occur the closer you get to T+0 A fascinating period incoming
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