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snowking last won the day on November 5 2014

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About snowking

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    greenwich, se london 0m asl & elsenham, nw essex 97m asl

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  1. I think it’s more just a general discussion to be fair - we won’t know for a few more months whether we are actually seeing a failure to downwell or not. I’m sure if we were monitoring things this closely back in 08/09 we might be wondering whether the same was happening then too: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data The phase change of the QBO is not a linear phenomenon - we’ve seen a few years ago how there can be a miscue of the usual W-E-W-E pattern, but on the scale of month to month we have historically seen some variance in the 30mb series. The truth is, we simply won’t know until early next year - but to finish on an optimistic note, I remember a certain February 2009 cold spell....
  2. From what I understand there are no absolutely clear linkages between SSW’s in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, other than it does indicate, for now at least, some healthy levels of Ozone transport via the BDO So an active BDO is a positive very early sign, but just as with any index at this range, that can very quickly change and does not necessarily dictate an active BDO season for the Northern Hemisphere winter
  3. Walking through the rain earlier I couldn't help but think we would be crying out for this setup anytime between December-March. Cue the raging SWlies come winter...
  4. Currently sat on a plane at Dublin airport which is having to get de-iced because of the snow which has come down in the last hour - now I can see out of the windows again looks like it’s settled pretty readily
  5. Of course typically just as the heavier stuff starts moving south it dies out - back to lighter stuff again here
  6. Incredibly frustrating isn’t it Nick. It does seem to be very slowly on the way south now and it’s turned more moderate here in the last 20 mins. The slow moving nature is good news if it holds together of course Yep - more moderate now. Hopefully getting heavier in the next hour or so
  7. This has been on my mind for some time now I must say - and the target date for this has been somewhere between 2019-2021. Next year has a lot of positive hallmarks - likely eQBO, solar minimum conditions, ENSO potentially the unknown quantity. In the back of my mind over the last few weeks has been how many times have we seen three consecutive seasons with major SSW’s....but as you say one starts to suspect we are in uncharted climatological waters (pun intended) You can’t help but feel that thus far this season we have been relatively unlucky post SSW (with a few exceptions) when you look at what’s gone down elsewhere around the Northern Hemisphere, but that’s just all part and parcel of the more mesoscale jigsaw puzzle that longer range forecasting (including seasonal modelling) simply can’t pick out as yet. But perhaps a wQBO has hindered what could have been even more of a significant downwelling to a certain extent. With MJO analogues becoming increasingly unreliable we’re going to have to keep on researching, trialling and hoping we can find some further linkages that give us more accurate clues at leadtimes of 2-4 weeks - I don’t get to see the clusters so as Nick has been at a pains to emphasise today when there’s been a lot of bashing going on, we can’t simply dismiss the EC46 output. But given the leaning of the longer range Met Office forecasts in recent weeks it does seem likely that it has indeed called things a little incorrectly for our tiny little island (along with some of the GLOSEA output), and I therefore remain unkeen on using traditional NWP at such long lead times. It’s been (and will continue to be) another season of learning...though I’m not sure what we can learn from this season. Just to embrace the chaos maybe? The only consistent thing with this season and the many before it has been the...ahem...consistent displacement of junior play implements from secure infant transportation....when things don’t go quite according to plan. But for those who accept that we are all trying to predict the future using inexact science with the hope of some white gold at the end of the very long rainbow, next year could be very intriguing indeed
  8. This just about sums up this week in Greenwich: Been sat on the southern edge of that heavier precipitation for the last two hours now, with just some sleet and occasional bursts of wet snow which hasn’t left a slight layer of slush on some cars. And now it’s weakening. So a little like March 18 for this area, so close to something more significant but did not have the winning ticket in the raffle once again. But good to see some areas have done better than expected, and today’s system does go to show that even with the hundreds of millions which we throw at forecast models, some situations are still as unsuccessful as my own modelling career (which similarly even hundreds of millions of pounds could not fix) There’s still hope, we’re only just into February and modelling will remain volatile for a while yet with the downwelling wave, but after the grim weather we’ve had today in London, I think I’m ready for some spring warmth....maybe swimsuit modelling is more my thing...
  9. In parts, but broad scale within 24 hours it called yesterday very well....and the worrying trend which it started now seems to have followed on some of the 12z suites so far We’ll see!
  10. @kold weather any news on the 6z ECM? I have to say the EURO4 is concerning for anyone from London northwards - I’ve found over the last few years that it’s generally a bit all over the place with precipitation intensity up to 48 hours out, once it gets within 24 hours it tends to be pretty good. At 48 hours out, yesterday’s snowfall event looking like bringing a few cms even into central London....then as the runs ticked on, the precipitation intensity slowly died and we saw what we saw last night - a nice little event with elevation, but elsewhere generally just a small covering (if at all) If the ECM is on the money then I will be a lot more comfortable - if we’re slowly heading to a EURO4 solution then for anyone North of the Thames, this could become another disappointment Let’s see how it develops though, lots of complications in the flow with multiple centres of low
  11. I think it's probably more that there's not been much to post about in London away from higher ground, largely sleet and the marginality with the UHE really playing out here I think To be honest, much as @bluearmy posted earlier, I lost interest in this event when the low sank into France, that was the shot at some really decent snowfall. But glad to see that much of the region has seen at least some falling snow, and looking good for those even further East. Thursday looks interesting at the moment , but there's still a whole 48 hours to go with that yet. Hoping it can maintain the signposted intensity
  12. Elevation certainly making the difference it seems in London at the moment. Rain with a bit of Sleet at times so far in Greenwich, it should get more interesting in the next hour.... and then again on Thursday....
  13. Indeed Kold The ECM not really making much of the Tuesday event now it has to be said, much quicker than the others and maybe 1-3cms for most, nothing too distressing. However for Thursday it sees the initial front as sleet/snow for pretty much everyone away from the far South, the band then heads north but stalls and pivots with The Midlands being the big winners along with some parts of N England, there is then a second area of precip which heads into Southern England later in the day, a mixture of rain sleet and snow, but that is all academic for now - we’ve seen even with Tuesdays low a tendency to shift around quite a lot so we are still far from certain where that initial front will actually decide to come to a halt at Euro4 - good looking snow cover but when you check the key, it’s probably generally 1-5cms from the front, so still nothing too significant. But still good to see the likelihood of some widespread snowcover as the week progresses. For me, it’s now all eyes on Thursday
  14. Well if that ECM run is correct, there won’t be a lot to make a fuss over, maybe a few cms here and there Theres another wave ahead of the cold front arrival but given that it head in during daylight hours, it’s mostly rain. And not much steam left on the front when it arrives either Hopefully by tomorrow 12z we should have some clarity
  15. UKMO raw continues to show the northward spread across this region of some slightly more intense precipitation, and a general slow down of the system as it moves across us
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