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snowking last won the day on November 5 2014

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    greenwich, se london 0m asl & elsenham, nw essex 97m asl

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  1. snowking

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    I really hope so for anyone running the marathon on Sunday, let's get it back under 20c for you all otherwise it's going to be just that bit tougher than it already is for so many people doing something I am in awe of for charity - very best of luck to everyone running! I have to say today has been just the perfect temperature for me in central London, up to 25c, just perfect for wandering around in (should read: wandering to the park for a beer in). Tomorrow will probably be a little bit unbearable for so early in the season with 28c likely to be hit I would think looking at high res modelling. Back down a few degrees it looks like again by Friday and into the weekend so something a bit more comfortable. What an incredible couple of months of weather we have had
  2. Ohhh I'm not suggesting that it's impossible to reach 20c in April, far from it. Just that it's not in the current scope of forecast modelling
  3. I'm not sure that's quite how those charts work Gavin, they're a temperature trend chart - so it's the difference between the temperatures at day 1 (which in those regions under cloud and rain/sleet/snow tomorrow will probably be rather depressed) and those at day 7 - so a very good trend and nice to see some warmer temperatures on the way, but 10c above average would be a bit extreme - that would put those parts of Northern England under the most extreme trend anomaly there at around 20-21c (which will not be happening we can quite safely say!). They instead show that the temperature will be 10c warmer in a week's time, which will be pretty welcomed for many
  4. So today I've been from Greenwich across to Clapham, down to Wandsworth then to Tooting and then back across via Westminster, Elephant & Castle, through Peckham and now back in Greenwich. Pretty similar conditions all the way across to be honest. Roofs, grass and cars covered, patchy coverings across the pavements - around 2-3cms of snow throughout. Just now it's that really fine powdery snow which hurts your eyes a bit to walk through. Not bad all in all for March. The Met Office warning were a little out of kilter it must be said, but this episode goes to show once again that no matter how far we humble homosapiens like to think we have come with NWP, dynamic situations such as this can still catch us all out. I did suggest on Friday that realistically we could expect 2-5cms for those on lower ground and that looks to be just about right. But again - this is March. All of this is a bonus and we have a good few winters yet to come
  5. Well I had just left a pack of Peroni out in the garden to cool down and it did the trick I did have to clear about 1cm of snow off the top though
  6. Indeed a much improved ECM run after a little wobble yesterday I suspect that might be the start of the convergence zone showing its hand off the coast of EA
  7. Really horrible out there in London at the moment on the way home - chilly with driving rain Thank goodness it will be driving snow by the morning
  8. Probably time to set some realistic expectations (without some surprises cropping up which are currently unmodelled) Certainly the risk of 2-5cms across the region, more especially around the estuary, with perhaps 10+cms over the downs. If you want more than that, you need to hope the HIRLAM is correct
  9. It looks awesome The only thing I would caution is that it looks as though it was initialised from Thursday 18z GFS, so it may be a little out of date by now
  10. Far more elegantly put than I could ever manage. I was a little surprised to see the amber warning appear I must say but I suspect it is the longevity of the snowfall as shown on the 6z E4, as opposed to the intensity, that has led to that warning. Presumably the UKV must be showing similar I still remain a little sceptical of the need for that warning area I must say, but will be more than happy to be proven wrong...just as long as I can get to the pub for the rugby
  11. That FAX chart is pure filth and should not be consumed in public places A note of caution that streamers like this of course rely heavily on the eventual flow, which even at 72 hours out is far from certain with some high margins for error. But given the more E'ly flow showing on most of the 12z suites, that is a justified FAX chart
  12. And I'm all for discussing the models in the model output discussion, but it would be nice if we could discuss what the models are showing, not what you would like them to show based upon personal preferences (I fully accept, by the way that those of a colder persuasion are often guilty of this in the colder months). What you have done by posting an 850mb temperature chart would be the equivalent of me in the summer months saying "Ohh, it won't get above 30c because of the cloud cover" and then just posting a single 500mb chart showing a high with a flow off of the Atlantic, rather than going and actually checking something such as the cloud cover parameter. And I could only imagine I would post such a thing to try and get a reaction? Apologies if I am wrong but it's difficult to draw too many other conclusions. Anyway, a big upgrade in terms of the UK wide potential for our next little hurrah to winter, with more areas likely to see at least something wintry falling out of the skies. But as has been posted here through the day, very poor intra-run consistency on placement of any precipitation post Saturday's returning front, hence such large warning areas I suspect. It's difficult to tell from the Weather.us charts whether the 12z ECM is still keen to push more persistent snow Northwards across Southern England into Sunday or not...mostly because there just seems to be a mass of precipitation across most of England and Wales throughout the weekend (all of it snow incidentally) It's going to be one of those situations where I think even the hi-res models are going to struggle until we get to within at least 24 hours.
  13. Trolling at its finest With a shallow surface flow and sub zero dewpoints I don't think there's much concern about sleet away from perhaps the immediate coastline
  14. Indeed Nick, the ECM has been toying with this on and off for the last few days making landfall across the South The 0z does bring a spell of (albeit fairly light) snowfall for much of southern England through into Sunday
  15. I don't think the UKV goes out that far Nick, so I would assume the view out to 48 hours (which shows hourly forecast intervals) would be UKV and then possible it would be the GM thereafter? Either that or some kind of MOGREPS-R output, but I would have thought GM more likely Either way, as always to anyone less experienced, I would treat these (and any hourly app type forecast for that matter) with the disdain they deserve. They're probably at their most useful printed off and then used as loo paper