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Snowmadsam

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Everything posted by Snowmadsam

  1. Snowmadsam
    If you live in South West Wales, I really wouldn't look at the GFS 12z run today....
  2. Snowmadsam
    UKMO sadly, slightly takes away the -4 isotherm at +144 All worth watching! (if any of this is wrong, please tell me!) still very much learning!
  3. Snowmadsam
    so it is, missed that! cheers
  4. Snowmadsam
    Again, 100 miles south and we could all do well on that, needs watching. Evaporative cooling COULD happen but precipitation would have to be intense... UKMO shows no sign of said low...
  5. Snowmadsam
    I wonder how many people will be tuning into the 12z’s now. Need that runner low flatter and further south IMBY ??? otherwise looking soooo interesting
  6. Snowmadsam
    Yes this does concern me, could be a rain event on that day looking at upper air temperatures. Someone feel free to correct me?
  7. Snowmadsam
    Looking at Russia there...hmmm.....What will be next?!
  8. Snowmadsam
    Cursed it now, never ever say that ??! Models will all have variability, before the 12z’s roll out a reminder to try and keep cool. We are all excited but let’s not get carried away
  9. Snowmadsam
    I agree, but next week is still ages away, no point in making snow predictions yet. Remember this is a COLD ZONAL flow. Surprises could be ANYWHERE. The weather will do what the weather will do
  10. Snowmadsam
    I agree, I can imagine these NWP’s as people and thinking past day ten saying “oh I can’t do it”. lets see what the rest of the day brings
  11. Snowmadsam
    The question of what happens past day 10 really interests me. Especially on the ECM output. I’ve no idea why, but it just does. I’m getting to that stage where I am getting ready for every run! This is not good ??
  12. Snowmadsam
    Fascinating to see that ALL ensemble members keep us on the cold side of the jet. One to bank for sure!
  13. Snowmadsam
    Finishing on a very interesting note in day 10, oh ECMenders is well and truely on this morning!
  14. Snowmadsam
    The only time we will know it’s true position is when it happens. Models are a SIMULATION, not a reality. They are to guide, not give an answer
  15. Snowmadsam
    Let’s get to Monday first, ECM looks stormy. More runs needed?!
  16. Snowmadsam
    With this cold zonal flow due to arrive next week northern AND Western areas should be prepared for some surprises as has often happened in this flow. I do expect some streamer events to occur in the week, maybe a Cheshire gap and a possible dangler (but that maybe hard to get going). Also take note of evaporative cooling, the winds around this system are cold yes, but the faster they flow the more readily precipitation may turn to snow and a warm Irish Sea will also potentially play a part in igniting some convective precipitation. There is no point in predicting exact timings as of yet. I will be doing something of a more in-depth post later this weekend. Model output in the medium is also looking interesting as does the potential SSW in the longer term. A lot to be getting our teeth into.
  17. Snowmadsam
    I’ll edit every hour. You will not find me waking up for the 00z however. I’m 23. A growing boy and I like my sleep! Is the 18z a new trend?! Find out tomorrow! (Who doesn’t love a good cliffhanger!)
  18. Snowmadsam
    Wow, goodness me. It’s 11pm. Why on earth are we all screaming and shouting at each other. Come on guys, let’s chill. If models are really frustrating you then simply press that button on your device to put it into sleep mode and recharge the batteries. An interesting 18z tonight, has it been to the pub or is it on dry January? But it has been nice to see something different for a change. Goes in line with what teleconnection posters on here have been saying. I’m off to rest me eyes. Things like this can get frustrating I understand but if you are that desperate for snow. You can always buy a snow machine or move. Or even put your head in the freezer to see what -20 feels like (but not for long otherwise you will most likely die! - 5 seconds at most!)
  19. Snowmadsam
    29% @Steve Murr living dangerously, I'm monitoring the SSW now. That maybe the only constant thing this winter. That or all the rain....models are still flip flopping and I need a drink. It's only tuesday!!
  20. Snowmadsam
    More evidence as to why it's worth looking NW! This is the constant trend from the GFS. I'm expecting a minor warming in the stratosphere. I haven't got time to show charts at the moment. But the charts are showing in the date ranges as per predictions from teleconnections professionals on here.
  21. Snowmadsam
    Speaking from experience in Western Wales I am very sure
  22. Snowmadsam
    I'm just gonna put it in my signature now, you do not need uppers of -5 or below for snow, dew points are essential. ECM keeping the Easterly flame alive for a time.....
  23. Snowmadsam
    I'd expect evaporative cooling to turn some of that to snow
  24. Snowmadsam
    I think we sort of need this cold zonal signal to transpire in order to move the trend onwards, if that makes sense? It would get heights lower into Europe. Teleconnection experts such as @Tamara and @Glacier Point have spoken how prospects look better later in the month, it will be interesting to monitor these and see if they transpire as hoped
  25. Snowmadsam
    You DO NOT need -5 and below upper air temps for snow. Dew points are more important.
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