Snowmadsam

you Forgot the trademark @nick sussex Goodness me!!! Haven't seen a run like this for while, at this rate no one is going to have fingernails left for the 12z's!!

They used Microsoft Paint clearly. I'm still mildly refreshing (every few minutes), still a mixed bag

I’m actually so snowed in that my house has now vanished under 2337483ft of snow Model uncertainty continues, maybe even the GFS 6z has had a nervous breakdown and said I JUST DONT KNOW ANYMORE

I believe -1c is below freezing But insightful never the less thank you! EC is looking better than this morning

Agreed. Getting a very big sense that this is no where near resolved. Even this evening in central London there was frost forming on the ground at 4pm. Dew points are certainly below freezing

agreed. Surprises almost anywhere. Everyone will AT LEAST experience something frozen falling from the sky.

I wouldn't take these graphics so seriously. Especially when showing SLP charts as resolution is lower. Precipitation is there as a guide on not a guarantee. Will very depend how conditions are on the ground. ECM op looked tasty didn't it, however!!

Agreed. I don't read them anymore either. Usually in these cases I close my blinds and wait and see what's on the ground. Saves the disappointment. All weather models are indicators, they aren't right or wrong they indicate potential. Usually when things verify there's always a strong suggestion that the potential has been matched. But I always read them as to what COULD happen as opposed to what WILL happen. That's why we have things like Ensembles, Control runs etc etc.

BINGO! a turn around, but does it have support, that’s the longer term question!

ECM @96 does look Slidey….. or at least on a negative tilt….

There is a huge lack of cross model agreement at the moment past that Azores low We do need to keep in mind that: 1.) we are transitioning into a weather pattern that we know what models are inexperienced with 2.) a tropical storm/disturbance forming in December is not at all that common. 3.) this is a tropospheric rare event and not a stratospheric warming event They’re always were going to be wobbles and I expect these to continue for a small while yet. at this juncture, you’ve got more chance of predicting two weeks lottery numbers correct

Eyeing up another feature at +270 “not another one”- Brenda from Bristol

Just for fun!! 18z shows a 1060mb scandi!

That’s why I ignore them and just look at the Synoptics. Saves the panic! 18z is looking nooiiiccceeeee for cold fans

@WINTRY WALES ^ this Once cold is embedded there’s usually ample opportunity for surprises. Features tend to be small so medium res models can’t pick them up

-8 uppers countrywide at the end of todays ECM run. Should it come off, many places would struggle to get above freezing.

Low appears to be sliding at 168 or beginning too… (we’ve got to the point where I’m checking out weather models in the gym at 6am!)

Pure filth that! I don’t usually watch an 18z run! But gosh! absolute treat if you love the cold- let’s see if it trends or has ens support

Blow for an hour?!?!?! I mean, we can try right? Models today are still holding strong for the next week for cold. Snow risk increases throughout the week. That's pretty much all we can say for now as certs. As to where snow maybe, maybe throw a dart at a UK map?

I do agree with this. People are giving their interpretations. People can misinterpret but it doesn’t mean they should be slated. Ultimately, the weather will do what the weather will do. Thing that are nailed on. It’s going to be colder for a significant period of time. There’s cross-model agreement on that. The unknowns are on the grounds of an extended pattern and form of precipitation if any occurs and where it will be under a cold pattern. If you are viewing run on run and find yourself getting stressed, step back for a few hours or get a refreshment. Moderation is always a useful mechanism.

agreed, could easily see very shallow areas of low pressure develop in such a flow, plenty of convergence lines too. Good luck to forecasters doing FAX charts with these synoptics.

Ok, I've been here 10 years - on and off and lurking. But I haven't seen these patterns for a very good while. Especially as what @Singularity has posted! Gosh! These sorts of patterns do always take TIME to establish but as others have said on here today, it's much less riskier than a SSW (Severe Stratospheric Warming) event. Personally, I'm only looking at 0z and 12z runs at the moment as I don't wish to get hung up on every run! But I may pop in for the 18z if this pattern is established..... MAYBE.... I'm still going to await the EC ops and Ens however whilst this pattern really gets established.

Urch don’t. The shape of the isobars annoys be. Why can’t they be MORE circular! ITS A WRITEOFF HONESTLY!! Nah, just on a serious note. Personally I’d take everything from +144 with a huge pinch of salt. NWP is not used to dealing with pattern changes like this one easily. Any pattern change to cold was always going to take a significant period of time because of how warm it’s been throughout the year

Indeed, a small slliideeeeee and a ton of opportunity emerges

Yes there is, heights clearly rising to the East at +54 also a side note, this place has been so vicious today, we all are here for similar reasons. No person be they ever so high should have to tolerate snide or abusive remarks. It’s almost time to have a few days off.