Snowmadsam
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Snowmadsam replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As @MattH said last night, this is an airmass clash, but likewise - I haven't seen a fight quite like this before!! Whilst the EC will be important, I'm not expecting a resolution for a while. I'm happy to be proven wrong however. In either a cold or mild way. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Snowmadsam replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I guess the GFS is SOMETHING then, if you are cold inclined. Lets see where its sits in its Ens. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Snowmadsam replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I agree on the point of “dissing” models. But it is interesting to have a discussion. I had been saying last night about the number of times the ECM Op had been an outlier but operates at a higher resolution within its ensemble suite. Which was concerning me a little. But weather models are a guide not a fact. That is why we have human charts in addition and discussions (UKMO FAX charts and NOAA discussion). Scope does remain a possible for upgrades and downgrades due to the complexities of the pattern at the pole at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Snowmadsam replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You wouldn't dare!!!! For coldies it will be a relief this morning to see the ECM (hopefully) begin to be dragged kicking and screaming in its glass slippers to the cold aisle. As for how quick or how cold it comes, well I'm sure this detail will be worked on as days go by.... -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Control on the GEFS takes the cold air down quicker. Question is, which model will be having to swallow a bitter pill..... Or will we get a compromise? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm six of one half a dozen in terms of a favourable weather pattern at this time of year. For a change I would like it to be seasonably cold, but from what teleconnections have been suggesting the milder part of winter COULD come around later Jan/feb time. But to predict that atm feels difficult. The ECM op being a frequent outlier in its own ens does worry me in longer term trend spotting in general as it has been doing this too often for my liking as of late.... Regarding cold, I'll await the GFS and the GEFS 18z tonight to see if that offers consistency from the 12z and then progress from there -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Snowmadsam replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That's a BIG statement to make with how volatile the weather pattern is in terms of predictability..... -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Op EC at t+168 again showing the chaos that models find themselves in, intriguing to see never the less. I wonder how it will perform in its ensembles later...given its been at the top end as of late.... -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let’s see if there is also divergence on tonight’s ECM Op and ENS. The EC op has not me the most inspiring amongst its suite of it and has been outliering a few times, highlighting the difficulty in predicting the pattern -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s the express, they need someone to quote for their front page tomorrow “SNOWMAGGADON FOR CHRISTMAS DAY” ——————— no but in all seriousness, let’s see if there is continuity in the longer term -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
“Ok, it’s happening, stay calm. STAY BEEP CALM” - Michael Scott its one run, let’s see how it develops -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The reason why I left it! Still way too much twoing the throwing with runs again to emphasise this isn’t a NORMAL pattern -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
After taking a tumble on the ice today, I’ve change my mind I want all model output to be mild BRING ON THE BLOW TORCH! (sadly no luck with another colder spell) -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please Santa, please -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not at all surprised, many here want consistency but with this pattern you will naturally find that will not be the case because: a.) this pattern does not happen that often b.) even the teleconnection profile for this pattern doesn't happen often In regard to watching runs from run to run there isn't much point as they will wobble. It's most likely better to wait for ens. (its frustrating me as well!!) -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
100% agreed. Also, with that airmass, don’t rule out surprises down the coast lines. It is a Polar Low after all. Seas are still warmer than usual…. but yes, high risk high reward. it is only one run. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
sliding more than people slide into my insta dms, opens the Northerly door. Greenland high tries to push East, Azores high retrogressing West… -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning morning morning! tbh, that’s a more preferred timeline, not from a meteorological view but from a human point of view. People are struggling at the moment. it’s better to give a little respite before anything else. At this moment a seasonal Christmas (chilly temperature wise) would do me personally. the 6z’s do paint a nice potential picture for the future, well based on what I’ve seen rolling out at the moment (gfs op only) -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Someone then pressed the "Restore to Factory default" on the 18z But in the BROAD scheme of things - fascinating to see never the less -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Azores high moves off on its holibobs on the 25th Dec. - Retrogression (Rrrreeeettttrrrrrooooooggggggrrrreeeeessssssiiiioooooonnnnnn) Leaving the UK frosty. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just REMEMBER its ONE RUN and its the 18z, but I expect there would be many a happy face if this run were true -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EC Op teases on what COULD be! Thing that struck me the most was the 1070 mb at the North Pole at +216. As a late twenty something who has been lurking and sometimes contributing I'd never thought I'd see that! Whilst all model output is guidance I await the Ens, if the GFS is sniffing out a pattern and we have more of a mild/cool "blip" (I mean look at the NH pattern) then POTENTIALLY this winter could be a treat. My personal FI marker is from Sunday 18th Dec (Happy Hanukkah for those who celebrate!!) onwards -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No but in all seriousness, that would be bitter! 60/40 on the ECM potentially coming out with a colder option this evening, its a hunch. No evidence backing it. I could be very wrong. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Snowmadsam replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Day 97 of me putting my head in my hands over this weather pattern and hoping for some consistency 12z's just go for cold again, again highlighting the unknowns of this pattern Spoiler: There is none, other than a mild up over the weekend (not saying warm up in winter)