Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Snowmadsam

Members
  • Posts

    1,127
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

Recent Profile Visitors

22,641 profile views

Snowmadsam's Achievements

Aficionado

Aficionado (7/14)

  • Dedicated
  • Week One Done
  • One Month Later
  • Five years in
  • Ten years in

Recent Badges

925

Reputation

  1. As @MattH said last night, this is an airmass clash, but likewise - I haven't seen a fight quite like this before!! Whilst the EC will be important, I'm not expecting a resolution for a while. I'm happy to be proven wrong however. In either a cold or mild way.
  2. I guess the GFS is SOMETHING then, if you are cold inclined. Lets see where its sits in its Ens.
  3. I agree on the point of “dissing” models. But it is interesting to have a discussion. I had been saying last night about the number of times the ECM Op had been an outlier but operates at a higher resolution within its ensemble suite. Which was concerning me a little. But weather models are a guide not a fact. That is why we have human charts in addition and discussions (UKMO FAX charts and NOAA discussion). Scope does remain a possible for upgrades and downgrades due to the complexities of the pattern at the pole at the moment.
  4. You wouldn't dare!!!! For coldies it will be a relief this morning to see the ECM (hopefully) begin to be dragged kicking and screaming in its glass slippers to the cold aisle. As for how quick or how cold it comes, well I'm sure this detail will be worked on as days go by....
  5. Control on the GEFS takes the cold air down quicker. Question is, which model will be having to swallow a bitter pill..... Or will we get a compromise?
  6. I'm six of one half a dozen in terms of a favourable weather pattern at this time of year. For a change I would like it to be seasonably cold, but from what teleconnections have been suggesting the milder part of winter COULD come around later Jan/feb time. But to predict that atm feels difficult. The ECM op being a frequent outlier in its own ens does worry me in longer term trend spotting in general as it has been doing this too often for my liking as of late.... Regarding cold, I'll await the GFS and the GEFS 18z tonight to see if that offers consistency from the 12z and then progress from there
  7. That's a BIG statement to make with how volatile the weather pattern is in terms of predictability.....
  8. Op EC at t+168 again showing the chaos that models find themselves in, intriguing to see never the less. I wonder how it will perform in its ensembles later...given its been at the top end as of late....
  9. Let’s see if there is also divergence on tonight’s ECM Op and ENS. The EC op has not me the most inspiring amongst its suite of it and has been outliering a few times, highlighting the difficulty in predicting the pattern
  10. It’s the express, they need someone to quote for their front page tomorrow “SNOWMAGGADON FOR CHRISTMAS DAY” ——————— no but in all seriousness, let’s see if there is continuity in the longer term
  11. “Ok, it’s happening, stay calm. STAY BEEP CALM” - Michael Scott its one run, let’s see how it develops
  12. I’m liking the 12z much more!! If we can get clearance quickly, rain to snow BINGO!
  13. The reason why I left it! Still way too much twoing the throwing with runs again to emphasise this isn’t a NORMAL pattern
  14. After taking a tumble on the ice today, I’ve change my mind I want all model output to be mild BRING ON THE BLOW TORCH! (sadly no luck with another colder spell)
×
×
  • Create New...