Kentspur

Remember we were due a white Christmas 2years back then this happened I wonder what effect it may have this time on the models?

Just enough bite in the ENEly there for some flurries across Kent youd imagine

And that's only -6c mean because of a couple of very much milder outliers I like to look at the biggest ensemble cluster which looks a bit colder than -6c I'd say so we're good as you say

I spy a Thames streamer setting up and its not just 1 rogue outlier GFS pub run with such a possibility

Think I must have started something when I visited Stockholm locals were telling me it was their coldest in November since 2010 that got me thinking of that year the last time we had a really big snowfall at exactly the time I was in Sweden the last 3 days of November!.. I landed to 5-6 inches of freshly falling snow then by the time I left there was a gradual top up to around 10" let's hope we see something in the coming weeks and yes not just Kent haha

I do lol well NW Kent haha

Oh better than me- got stuck for 6 hours trying to get to work had to turn around then wait for a tractor to clear the road and then the next day my car head gasket blew up

Blue centred right over my areas of work&living interesting JMA is similar but is more NEly than the ECM ENEly flow cant stress enough how much we need that ENEly flow for any possibly precip to arrive in SE London/NW Kent else it will merely be a EA coastal& East Kent Clipper with occasionally as far west as Medway joining in as we seemed to find a lot in the 1990s and early to mid 00s

10 was epic 3 days of near constant snow here, 09 was best around Surrey/South London pretty decent in my area but only half the snow 2010 gave us here IMBY. 2018 too much of a ESEly/SEly looking at the reanalysis I can see why it failed to deliver as much for London Surrey and W of Kent and more places further north and likes of East and Mid Kent did better

8 of these could produce snow for the SE possibly 9 for the furthest SE in Kent I'd estimate

Isobar not particularly tight either and for here in NW Kent&S Essex/London/Thames etc there's too much N of East in the flow more conducive to a light East Kent clipper

Mid Kent had a decent fall when we had a bit of a brief Kent Clipper NEly flow (dry here) but then after instead of our holy grail ENEly we ended up Too much East of South flow ESEly and About 2miles north of.me northwards got the goods while we had dregs max we had fall at any time in Gravesend, NW Kent was 4inches the day Maidstone etc had more than double that, the main thing I recall from the Beast week was the depth of cold powdery light snowfall and the howling wind turning my tables and chairs upside down on my balcony by the Thames. Swly/Wly winds our default are barely noticeable where I am as I'm also at the bottom of a North facing road that's hilly and slopes to the Thames. Had slightly more snow fall in last Decembers surprise fall on the 11th than during the beast!

Snow showers for snow starved EA and the SE go ECM!!

Not sure if EC46 has been posted but if not I know why only 1 week of colder than normal in England and Wales week2 of January then back to milder than normal for most away from Northern Scotland

Short term pain for long term gain the op outputs also have been putting things back a little since yesterday but the landing date always seemed around Start of the 2nd week January for me

GFS for early on 9th January looks great funny thing is I've had 2 people already ask me if there's any snow due here in Kent that date! GFS 12z thinks so. Kent Clipper/Thames streamer anyone? NEly turning ENEly. Long way off I know not to get carried away and all that...

Short term pain for long term gain? Like how this GFS is shaping up t240 for EA and the SE

Looking at the ensemble suites each run this is the best one yet GFS 18z for amount of snow spikes albeitodest amounts in the SE I've seen so far 2nd week January fi I know. But highlights the p word. ECM obviously better ensembles set

Way to far out to specify its showing that now but quite often if other models come on board the modelled airmass is colder nearer the time I've found on past experience of my 20years on this forum on GFS and streamers arent picked up well in advance either. Although the climate has warmed since then. Often Croydon is a good spot when a Thames streamer sets up more inland and a little more elevated than where I am flat as a pancake

I'll take it atleast it would feel seasonal down here for once! Past experience shows a Easterly like this from across the North sea can produce some light streamers around parts of the SE also GFS uppers tend to upgrade nearer the time

GFS 18z already a warm outlier from the 5th January for my location

The mean towards 2nd week Jan is about 1c colder on GFS 06z vs 0z if not more so trending in the right direction -5C average 850HPA and t2 max temps colder also its the mean I'm taking more notice of rather than the very up and down op runs further out

Aberdeen im waiting on looks like sleet atleast there they didn't offer Highlands where I looked sadly

That's awesome sorta thing I'd do haha like my break to the wilderness in snowy Sweden last month GFS ensembles giving hope for these sort of conditions being possible here 2nd week January- with a looming SSW anythings possible! Merry Christmas 🏔 🌨

The ensembles must be seeing something the GFS op was mostly a warm outlier anyhow im keeping the faith and happy to wait it out...