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About Kentspur

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    Live in central Gravesend work around South East England
  • Interests
    The weather! Sea fishing, football-Tottenham and Dartford FC, tennis, cooking, gym,
  • Weather Preferences
    Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October

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  1. With all the interest in the short to mid range right now with the GFS Coming out I'd like to say longer term once more looks fantastic as Karlos posted with those EC46 charts. Dare I say a modern day slightly watered down 1947❄
  2. I agree also a very important EC46 for the long term pattern tonight will it remain on track?
  3. Yes and with all the talk about snow on Northern hills. This type of set up would favour The NE/E and SE/S as well as most central regions pretty confident The cold zonality talk will be banished and replaced by a bitter Easterly by months end should the ECM continue to and other models start showing charts as good as these
  4. I'm not sure what you're talking about the main point I was getting at is that the chart posted does NOT show snow for most as it says it doesn't mean other models such as the Para don't show this. This is a model output discussion and I feel I was making a perfectly valid point. I deliberately added in not to be IMBY and genuinely wish the northern members every flake they wish for. Not sure why you're trying to make out Im dividing this forum
  5. Without sounding IMBY that would be less than half of the population unfortunately. Although fortunately it's likely to be wrong at that range seeeing as the GFS has been flip flopping about as it does so often. Though I wish the hilly northerners a Happy snow hunt. As already alluded to it's the end of January and February that's the main interest for the vast population masses further south
  6. Just catching up on the model discussion pages. I take it the signs are positive with so many pages?! Out of interest what does the snow row go up to on this chart would you say 10 on the snow row= 50% likelihood of snow for instance?
  7. Yes and on top of this the bashing the lrf have endured when were not even 1/4 of a way through January we've already had a few colder days the CET is not far from average currently with just a few slightly milder than average days likely before a steady progression to colder on the near horizon based upon those ensembles meaning we still could end up with a below average January. I'm remaining optimistic
  8. I remain optimistic with the different time frames touted for the onset of any very cold spell and the Met (however bad you may feel they are) mentioning about the cold rain/mild possibilities in the coming period ahead shorter term, we have to be patient as frustrating as it is seeing charts flattening. As others have already said and the EC46 for example showed the real interest lies after this model output period in late Jan- early feb. If we dont start seeing better forecasts in the next 10- 12 days then perhaps alarm bells will start ringing
  9. I commented on this on Twitter as although it seems this way if you watch the video when he shows the European models they all say forecast- 1st December. Unlike the mild looking Asian and American updates, Gavin liked my comment but didn't reply so I'm sceptical about the video, just a thought.
  10. Depends where you are the chart before on 09/01/03 was much better for the SE. I got sent home from school early here in NW Kent. It was the biggest snowfall we'd had in years in NW Kent&SE London
  11. Isn't the aussies BOM discontinued now funny you mention it. I remember when I lived in Melbourne the weather forecasts were absolutely dier 40c predicted turned out cloudy and 22c. We'd never have such extreme differences here
  12. Turkey would be perfect 45c in summer snowed in in winter!
  13. Spot on! Pleasantly surprised to see the cars frosting up outside my hunt for cold in the SE has taken a welcome turn tonight. It wasn't forecast nor was I expecting a frost to take us into Christmas morning. If we can't have snow then a white frosty scene is the next best thing by far! Merry Christmas everyone and hope for better model outputs soon
  14. Kentspur

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    Someone posted in November a video link of the Meteo France winter forecast-which predicted a cold snowy December for the UK-safe to say that was very wrong at such a short timescale! Let's just hope many of the other models that went for a mild December followed by colder January/ February are correct!
  15. Im sure I read on here 1 to 2 days is a toppler? Correct me if I'm wrong