IanR

Im moving to Edinburgh seems to be the new most thunder prone city in the UK

it wont even be that , I think those lightning symbols actually mean cool patchy drizzle, far more likely

Just been looking at lighting activity map from yesterday , to where it all ended up this morning , in the north east north sea, England was robbed a spectaclular MCS The storms started in the southern irish sea , You would have thought the storms would have moved erratically north east from there , , but they seemed to want to avoid the bulk of england and wales with passion , moving up in straight line , even with a slight north west veer, its only when they reach the scottish borders they decided to move north east with vengance , thus avoiding england ! very annoying but quite expected , why do storms just want to avoid our area, it beyond a joke now

feels much cooler here now , breezy too, feels like a front has passed, grey and overcast now , game over

From Thursday, Looks like i was right, so predictable, oh well off the gym to pass time , sure will be hot in there

Had them here about 10 mins ago, I feel that was our event, watch that lot turn thundery as it goes north east to north yorks and southern scotland

I have also noticed since using this forum is when the lack of storms started , if they are forecast and I click on this forum , particularly the storm thread, it seems to jinx them , I just clicked on the storm thread , so that is it no thunder here today ! Need to avoid this place, maybe I might get more thunder

When it moves over storm killer NW England it will fizzle to nothing , trust me on that Although it looks like there could be thunderstorms 'wasted' over the irish sea then pushing north into scotland , Isle of Man could see a storm, possibly north cumbria ,,,but the populated areas of NW England...nope, unless it all develops a little further south , but knowing our luck it will be even further north than forecast

Its getting common to get a heatwave without any storms at the end now, cant see anything happening on saturday, bbc graphics did show some showery activity in the middle of the irish sea , pushing into southern scotland . I suspect this will be the case , its happened a few times over recent years where the activity is over the northern irish sea

Being back Ian McCaskill , when I think back there seemed more storms when he did the forecasts , I associate him with thunderstorms That table by TM confirms what I feared, a notable decline, the sad thing is the decline seems worse than even those stats suggest Is it just a fluke of the law of averages, with a randon lull this decade , and the figures will go up again. or is something going on ?

Anyone expecting a thundery shower in NW England on Saturday need to be prepared for disappointment, Looks like just odd ...possibly thundery showers will keep far west in the Irish sea , and push off to the north

Same here, dramatically so over the last 10 years , I am 50, old enough to remember them from my childhood, it would be quite common to get them on a fortnightly basis over July and August , We would say as kids ''its only god moving his furniture''' . Some of those storm days would consist of a storm in the afternoon and a lull with warm sun , and then light show during the evening during plume events, multiple storms dont happen here now , not for many years, Like I said , I dont care what anyone says, they have become more rare here, Even in spring most years there would be one or two weaker thundery showers with a few rumbles , before the big ones arrived mid summer I dont think kids of today will have Tstorms etched in their memory from this decade when they are older

I think thats part of it, regarding model watching , but there still has been a decline too, When the forecasts mentioned thunder ,60 percent or more the time you got thunder , even when you didn't you got distant lightning, if the storms were forecast in you area for the night time , When thunder is mentioned in forecasts now I dismiss it . especially the terms 'thundery rain' , 'odd rumble of thunder' and 'thundery at times' It rarely comes to pass , well maybe 5 percent success rate at best

I am nearly 50, always liked Tstorms , and there has without doubt been a decline , its very notable here. 70's 80's 90's were decent decades for reliable thunder if it was forecast , even early '00 's but the reduction started to be more noticeable. There were still busts , but more often they came to materialise , were as now its more often the bust senario I just wonder if it is the recent years of low solar activity, it would be the most logical explanation,but if this is the case, why do our friends over the channel still get copious amounts of thundery activity ?

Yes what happened to the 'dangerous heat' some were ramping , Someone even said about this spell , its the summer equivalent of the beast from the east , scorching temps and some powerful T storms , just goes to show , never trust the models , even in short time range , This whole spell so far as just been well...meh, a big let down , does look decent for the next few days towards the weekend, but nothing out of the ordinary , just a typical nice few days on the warm side , that happens most summers, Looks a bit 'meh' again after that

BBC forecast at lunchtime mentioned thunderstorms tomorrow morning around NW England , Hmmm . No way I thought , What will actually happen if anything , will be moderate/heavy rain instead, with gloomy featureless murky skies from the dregs left from the overnight storms further south, making a washout drive into work Lo and behold , the BBC now says just heavy rain in NW England for the morning, on this evenings forecast, with more storms breaking out over southern counties I need to move Next chance Saturday night? that will change no doubt

But that wasn't always the case , for example during the 80's and 90's afternoon storms over the west midland would often make up here by evening , you would here the distant growls to the south as the light started to fade , then you would see the lightning, the storms would trundle all the way to the scottish border during the early hours I dont care what anyone says , something HAS changed , It really never happens like that anymore, I did forecast myself that this was over hyped , as early as Friday , I knew it would be a huge disappointment for the NW , it nearly always is thesedays

Sorry for the moan but I said earlier this was overhyped , the bbc mentioned frequent lightning in their forcast even yesterday, I became skeptical then for NW England , Frequent lightning ? moving up through the NW of England on Sunday evening ? just as dusk is setting in ? seemed to good to be true... If it seems to good to be true it usually is too good to be true

Not convinced about this , wasn't from about 12.00 this afternoon with a grayed out stratus overcast sky all day , doesnt even feel that warm in the breeze here,

Anyone get the feeling all this is just getting hyped up, probably end up just being a bog standard southerly warm spell wlth heavy rain , sometimes thundery in places and sunny spells , like we get most years , BBC week ahead forecast has temps in the 21 to 23 range for NW England up until Wednesday, we nearly got to that in Febuary this year Run along, nothing to see , well in Wigan for sure

Most if not all the winter months were a little above average, whats betting all of the summer months will be below average, the above average month will resume soon , October probably , the British weather, like our politics is a laughing stock

My god thats pretty shocking , its going to take quite a turnaround for anything like a decent summer index, cant see it happening, I was suspecting this is turning out even worse that 2012, that confirms it . It feels colder, there has been more annoyance rain , and seems even duller if that's possible, at least in 2012 we had a few good T storms , I have give up on looking for anything interesting ,

A bet you are glad you are now in a country where interesting weather happens , back here in shitey blighty its 13c and yes with drizzle, the form horse

oh well that was a damb squib , really thought that cheshire cell would have produced a good round of T&L , it was in direct path of here , I will be really annoyed if it kicks off again now its to the north , ah well at least its been one of those sunny spells and convective thundery showers days with impressive cloud formations that seem to be more rare now than pre 2007, back to normal slate grey skies and washout frontal rain tommorrow, looking forward to that ..not

my storm shield is on full force today...yet again , few distant rumbles this afternoon to the west , I saw this evenings cheshire storm approaching from the south with a faint rumble. now the cell has moved overhead to me its stopped being thundery , just annoyance moderate rain, I actually knew this would happen, grrrrrrr